The Morning: Trump’s second-term agenda

Plus, Gaza, an execution in Alabama and animal vision.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 25, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering Trump's plans for a second term — as well as Gaza, an execution in Alabama and animal vision. Donald Trump Doug Mills/The New York Times Working the levers My colleagues Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Charlie Savage are writing a continuing series on what Donald Trump plans to do during a second term as president. With Trump on his way to winning the Republican nomination, I want to devote today's newsletter to a conversation with the three of them. David: One question that some people have is whether Trump would govern as radically in a second term as his rhetoric suggests. After all, he also made sweeping promises when running in 2016, but he often failed to follow through. There is no border wall. He didn't withdraw from Afghanistan. He didn't "lock up" Hillary Clinton. The courts rejected his initial Muslim ban and his changes to the census. What's your view about whether to assume he will really do what he says in a second term? Jonathan: I would challenge the statement that Trump didn't do a lot of what he promised in his first term. Yes, there were some things he didn't accomplish, and, yes, he initially appointed people who resisted his requests. But by the end of his first term, Trump had put the U.S. on a course to withdraw from Afghanistan. On immigration, he had all but destroyed the asylum system. On trade, he had implemented tariffs against China and even European allies, and he had withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership — President Obama's signature trade deal. He'd pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate accords. I could go on, but you get the point. Maggie: One way to look at this is that Trump would be picking up where he left off when the pandemic changed everything. At the beginning of 2020, Trump had installed a loyalist at the office of presidential personnel, John McEntee, to purge the government of anti-Trump officials and had plans to make it easier to fire civil servants. That was all put on pause, and would resume accordingly. Charlie: Those who stuck with Trump learned a lot about how to work the levers of government over four years and are likely to be more competent than they were at first. For example, you mention that the courts blocked his ban on travel to the U.S. by people from several Muslim countries, but that is only true of the first stabs at it. Eventually, his administration figured out how to rewrite it in a way that the Supreme Court let take effect. His aides would be starting from that level of sophistication in a second term. David: If he is president again, which policy areas do you think will be his biggest initial priorities? Maggie: Immigration is an area where he tried to do a number of things last time, some of which his appointees blocked. One example was releasing undocumented immigrants into sanctuary cities — similar to what Republican governors have done with sending undocumented immigrants to blue states. But lawyers at Trump's Department of Homeland Security said it couldn't work. If a second Trump term happens, I think you will see him move quickly on immigration. He has promised crackdowns at the border through use of the Insurrection Act, as well as mass roundups and deportations of undocumented immigrants. He and his allies have also been clear that a big agenda item is eroding the Justice Department's independence. Charlie: Yes, Trump has vowed to use his power over the Justice Department to turn it into an instrument of vengeance against his political adversaries. This would end the post-Watergate norm that the department carries out criminal investigations independently of White House political control, and it would be a big deal for American-style democracy. Jonathan: The reality is that Trump has spent almost no time thinking about what governing would look like in a second term. To the extent he has thought about it, his mind mostly turns to the Department of Justice and the "deep state" — which he understands as the intelligence community. People close to Trump are already drawing up lists of "disloyal" officials in the national security apparatus who will be targeted for retribution. David: So far, we've been talking about the executive branch, but the Constitution includes checks on a president's power — namely, Congress and the courts. How might they respond? Charlie: The ability of other branches to serve as a check will be diminished. Most of the Republicans in Congress who occasionally stood up to Trump have left government or, by 2025, will have. Think of John McCain, Jeff Flake, Adam Kinzinger, Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney. The Supreme Court will be more tilted in Trump's favor in any second term, thanks to his own appointments in his first four years. As a result, some disputes that he lost last time — such as the immigration case involving so-called Dreamers — would probably come out the other way. Jonathan: I would add that the Senate has been the institution most resistant to Trump, but that, too, is changing. Mitch McConnell is near the end of his career. And the newer Republican senators, like J.D. Vance of Ohio and Ted Budd of North Carolina, are Trump loyalists who replaced Trump skeptics. David: Good point. The main conclusion I take from your reporting is that when Trump tells voters what he plans to do in a second term, we should default to believing him. You can find the full series by Jonathan, Maggie and Charlie here, including articles on immigration, the Justice Department, trade and NATO. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Election President Biden Erin Schaff/The New York Times The United Automobile Workers union, which backed President Biden in 2020, endorsed his re-election. Biden joined striking auto workers on a picket line last year. Nikki Haley turned her campaign to South Carolina, where she was governor. Some Republican lawmakers there want her to drop out. More Republicans in Congress are endorsing Trump as he moves closer to becoming the party's nominee. Trump easily won New Hampshire, but his weakness with independents and college-educated voters could hurt him in a general election. The likely matchup between Trump and Biden is about more than just ideological difference. It is about two disparate visions of America, Peter Baker writes. More on Politics A recording appears to show the chairman of Arizona's Republican Party trying to bribe Kari Lake, a Trump ally, to drop her Senate bid. The chairman denied the charge, but resigned. The Biden administration asked the Energy Department to study the climate impact of an enormous natural gas facility before it decides whether to approve the project. Ohio's Republican-controlled legislature voted to ban minors from receiving gender-affirming care, overriding the Republican governor's veto. Israel-Hamas War Israel ordered the evacuation of a small but packed area in southern Gaza to which more than 400,000 people have fled. An attack killed at least nine people at a U.N. facility where Gazans were sheltering, the U.N. said. Families of Israeli hostages are protesting at a border crossing to block aid from entering Gaza. Israel declassified more than 30 secret military and government orders to challenge South Africa's charge of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice. Israel and Hamas continued talks on a cease-fire, but remained far apart on the length of any pause and the fate of Hamas leaders in Gaza. War in Ukraine An image from a video posted to Telegram.  UGC, via Associated Press Russia accused Ukraine of shooting down a military plane that it said was carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war, killing everyone onboard. British officials, still resolute in their support for Ukraine's war effort, are lobbying Republicans hostile to further aid. Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, said he would push lawmakers to let Sweden join NATO. But he repeated the claim that the decision isn't his, even though his party controls Parliament. More International News Measles is resurgent in parts of Europe, where reported cases rose more than 40-fold last year. A man has been sentenced to death in Japan for killing 36 people in an arson attack on a Kyoto anime studio, The Washington Post reports. A new French memorial has been criticized for glorifying France's role in abolishing slavery rather than atoning for its history of enslavement. Business Airline executives are frustrated with Boeing over safety, and the company's stock is down. Katherine Maher, who led the nonprofit that supports Wikipedia, will be the next chief executive of NPR. The usually sleepy Copyright Office has found itself in the middle of a clash between content creators and tech giants over A.I. Other Big Stories In Maui. Brendan George Ko for The New York Times Crews in Hawaii are dumping toxic wildfire debris at a temporary disposal site uphill from a vital coral reef. Alabama plans today to execute Kenneth Smith, an inmate who survived lethal injection, by an untested method using nitrogen gas. The Supreme Court declined to stop the execution. Scientists announced the world's first successful embryo transfer in a white rhino, offering hope for an endangered subspecies, Reuters reports. Florida's state university system eliminated sociology as a core course, a month after a state education official said that left-wing activists had hijacked the subject. Opinions Gang violence threatens Ecuador. But so do the disinformation and security crackdown that followed it, Iván Ulchur-Rota writes. Here are columns by Pamela Paul on "Barbie," Nicholas Kristof on Taiwan's chip industry and Gail Collins on the New Hampshire results. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. MORNING READS How a pale yellow butterfly might appear to a bird.  Birds' eye: Scientists have a devised a video system that reveals how animals see color. 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(Taylor's Version): Since Taylor Swift began to show up at Kansas City Chiefs games, some football fans have griped that the cameras seem to focus more on her than on the field. In reality, through, Swift occupies a tiny portion of the broadcasts, as The Times's Benjamin Hoffman found when he analyzed each game she has attended since Christmas. Last week, during the Chiefs' playoff victory over the Bills, Swift was onscreen for 24 seconds — just a few seconds longer than her boyfriend's shirtless brother. More on culture Jon Stewart is returning to host "The Daily Show" on Monday nights during the election. "Trump cruised to victory, and just like most cruises, half the people partied while the other half felt really sick": The late night hosts discussed the New Hampshire primary results. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Julia Gartland for The New York Times Simmer eggplant in tangy adobo sauce for a vegetarian version of a beloved Filipino dish. Jumpstart your life if you're feeling stuck. Work out with this fitness gear. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were paranoid and raindrop. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. 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