In today's newsletter, Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, explains the meaning of last night's New Hampshire results. — David Leonhardt
Good morning. We're covering Donald Trump's win in New Hampshire — as well as the war in Gaza, Boeing and Oscar snubs.
A missed opportunityIs the Republican presidential primary over already? Not quite, but it's a reasonable question after New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald Trump last night. And if your definition of "over" is whether Trump is now on track to win without a serious contest, the answer is probably "yes." With nearly all the counting done, he won 55 percent of the vote. His only remaining rival, Nikki Haley, won 43 percent. Trump's 12-point margin of victory is not extraordinarily impressive in its own right. In fact, he won by a smaller margin than many pre-election polls suggested. What makes Trump's victory so important — and what raises the question about whether the race is over — is that New Hampshire was Haley's best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race. It was arguably her best opportunity to win a state, period. If she couldn't win here, she might not be able to win anywhere — not even in her home state of South Carolina, where the race turns next. And even if she did win her home state, she would still face a daunting path forward. Trump leads the national polls by more than 50 percentage points with just six weeks to go until Super Tuesday, when nearly half of all the delegates to the Republican convention will be awarded. Without an enormous shift, he would secure the nomination in mid-March. Haley's best chanceWhy was New Hampshire such an excellent opportunity for her?
Haley made good on all of these advantages yesterday. She won 74 percent of moderates, according to the exit polls, along with 58 percent of college graduates and 66 percent of voters who weren't registered Republicans. Conservative votesBut it wasn't close to enough. Haley lost Republicans by a staggering 74 percent to 25 percent — an important group in a Republican primary. Conservatives gave Trump a full 70 percent of the vote. Voters without a college degree backed Trump by 2 to 1. In other Republican primaries, numbers like these will yield a rout. Conservatives, Republicans and voters without a degree will represent a far greater share of the electorate. There is no credible path for her to win the nomination of a conservative, working-class party while falling this short among conservative, working-class voters. Worse, Haley's strength among independents and Democrats will make it even harder for her to expand her appeal, as Trump and other Republicans will depict her campaign as a liberal Trojan horse. If Haley had won New Hampshire, the possibility of riding the momentum into later states and broadening her appeal would have remained. Not anymore. Instead, it's Trump who has the momentum. He has gained nationwide in polls taken since the Iowa caucuses. Even skeptical Republican officials who were seen as Haley's likeliest allies, like Tim Scott or Marco Rubio, have gotten behind the former president in recent days. Whether the race is "over" or not, the New Hampshire result puts Trump on a comfortable path to the nomination. If he's convicted of a crime, perhaps he'll lose the nomination at the convention. But by the usual rules of primary elections, there's just not much time for the race to change. If it doesn't, Trump could easily sweep all 50 states. Related: "It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee," President Biden said in a statement. "The stakes could not be higher." More on the Republican primary
More on the Democratic primary
Commentary
Israel-Hamas War
International
Politics
Other Big Stories
Opinions Benny Gantz, a centrist former general who has argued that Netanyahu has damaged Israel, could become his replacement. Anshel Pfeffer has a profile. The growing practice of "swatting" public officials — using false emergency calls to draw armed police to their homes — threatens American democracy, Barbara McQuade writes. The allegations against District Attorney Fani Willis jeopardize her case against Trump. She should step aside, Clark Cunningham argues. Here are columns by Bret Stephens on Gaza's tunnels and Thomas Edsall on Trump. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer.
San Giovanni Lipioni: A small Italian town has the oldest average population in an aging nation. It's trying to lure new residents. An eternal question, answered: How much potato must a chip contain? Rise and dine: Not a morning person? These 24 recipes could help you get out of bed. Look up: Walking with your face buried in a smartphone affects your mood — and your stride. Lives Lived: Charles Osgood hosted "CBS Sunday Morning" for 22 years. But his passion was radio, where he told unconventional stories in unconventional ways, often in rhyme. Osgood died at 91.
N.B.A.: The Milwaukee Bucks shocked the league by firing their head coach, Adrian Griffin, just 43 games into his tenure, which he finished 30-13. The former Celtics and Sixers coach Doc Rivers is a leading candidate to replace him. Baseball: Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer were elected to the Hall of Fame, the organization announced. A unique donation: The former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, who now plays for the Houston Texans, gave a large sum directly to the school's name, image and likeness collective, the first publicly known contribution of the sort.
The race begins: Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" leads the Oscars pack this year, with 13 nominations. "Barbie" earned eight, including for best picture — though its director, Greta Gerwig, and star, Margot Robbie, were notably overlooked. The best picture nominees are an eclectic mix, with foreign films — "Zone of Interest" and "Anatomy of a Fall" — alongside smaller independent movies like "Poor Things" and "The Holdovers," and epics like Martin Scorsese's "Killers of the Flower Moon." See the full list of Oscar nominees. More on culture
Simmer cherry tomatoes and raw pasta to make this one-pot spaghetti. Try a power-building workout. Improve your meal prep.
Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was toothpick. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
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Berisha thirrje qytetarëve: Të gjithë marshim drejt Tiranës! Nuk do të
pajtohemi kurrë me diktaturën që riktheu farsën elektorale
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Kreu i Partisë Demokratike, Sali Berisha, u ka barë sërish thirrje
qytetarëve të bashkohen në protestën e thirrur nga opozita të më 7 tetor në
Tiranë. Në...
Hace 6 horas