The Morning: The end of economic pessimism?

Plus, the New Hampshire primary, migration and American menus.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 23, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering Americans' gloomy views of the economy — plus the New Hampshire primary, migration and menus. In Manhattan. Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times An economic mystery By many measures, the U.S. economy is strong right now. Unemployment is near its lowest point in decades. Inflation has slowed down. Wages have grown faster than prices since last year. Stock prices have surged. But many Americans are not feeling it, and say the economy is in bad shape. The persistent pessimism has baffled many economists. The situation may be changing. American confidence in the economy has picked up in recent months, surveys show. And President Biden's campaign hopes the turnaround will boost his re-election prospects. Still, measures of consumer confidence remain lower than normal. Why have Americans resisted the good economic news? Experts have tried to answer that question for months. Today's newsletter will cover seven of their leading explanations. 1) Inflation The first, and most obvious, explanation is rising prices. Historically, Americans hate high inflation. For one, it is universal; high prices affect everyone. In comparison, high unemployment directly affects only a minority, even during recessions. "When prices rise, it feels like something is taken away from you," my colleague Jeanna Smialek, who covers the economy, told me. Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index | By The New York Times Inflation has cooled recently. But that does not mean that prices have necessarily decreased; they are merely rising much more slowly than they were when the inflation rate was at its highest. Consider: The average price for one pound of chocolate chip cookies peaked in March. But it still costs about $5.10 today, up from $3.50 four years ago. 2) Housing costs Among higher prices, one category stands out for many Americans: housing. It is typically the most expensive thing that Americans own or pay for. As housing costs increase, they can squeeze people's ability to pay for anything else. And costs have increased. Rents have climbed by about 22 percent since late 2019, and a key measure of home prices is up by about 45 percent. 3) No normalcy During the pandemic, many people looked forward to the day when things would return to normal. So far, they haven't. Murder rates have fallen in the last two years, but they are still higher than they were before the pandemic. Dangerous driving is more common. Downtown foot traffic remains down in many cities. The upcoming presidential election will likely duplicate the contest from the middle of the pandemic. These factors do not always appear in economic statistics, but they color people's perceptions of their lives and the economy. 4) Asymmetric polarization Economic confidence surveys capture the political mood. When a Republican is in the White House, Democrats tend to take a more negative view of the economy. And vice versa. But the trend is not symmetrical. Consider this data from the pollster Civiqs: When Donald Trump won the 2016 election, Democrats' views of the economy soured but remained mostly positive until the pandemic. After Biden defeated Trump, Republicans went from describing the economy in overwhelmingly positive terms to using overwhelmingly negative ones. Source: Civiqs | By The New York Times In other words, Republicans react much more strongly to a president from the opposite party than Democrats do. That disproportionately affects the national mood during this Democratic administration. 5) Bad-news bias The news media often presents a negative view of events, possibly making people feel worse about the state of the world. Rising inflation got a lot of regular, and widely viewed, news coverage. Better economic news, including drops in inflation and low unemployment, has received less attention. Many Americans have heard the bad news but not the good. 6) Social media's role One does not have to wander deep into social media to find negative commentary on the economy. Memes about the woes of capitalism and anger over high prices are common. Younger Americans tend to get most of their news from social media, and they also have worse views about the economy by some metrics. (The Times looked at the grim view of the economy that is common on TikTok.) 7) Delayed response Maybe the rift between the state of the economy and Americans' perceptions is less of a mystery than it seems, and the paradox will soon end. People just need more time. After years of uncertainty driven by a pandemic and then inflation, many Americans might want to make sure that things are truly turning around before they buy into any potentially false hopes. One fact supporting this conclusion is that consumer sentiment has started to improve after more than a year of cooling inflation, as Jeanna wrote yesterday. As the challenges that made Americans pessimistic ease, attitudes about the economy could relax as well. Their views could even change in time for the presidential election. For more Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and… seven tech stocks are driving the market. Stocks don't represent the overall economy, but their surge is probably improving Americans' economic mood, Paul Krugman writes about the "vibecession" in Times Opinion. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS New Hampshire Primary Nikki Haley Ruth Fremson/The New York Times Trump continues to lead in the polls for the New Hampshire primary, happening today. Nikki Haley's candidacy might rest on an upset. Trump gave his closing speech at a rally attended by former opponents in the Republican primaries, Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott. Robocalls mimicking Biden's voice, most likely using A.I., urged residents not to vote. State officials are investigating. The primary's first votes are already cast: Dixville Notch is home to six registered voters, all of whom backed Haley. Watch this brief video from New Hampshire, in which Nick Corasaniti previews the primary. And test your knowledge of the election with a quiz. Migration Eagle Pass, Texas. Kenny Holston/The New York Times The Supreme Court said Border Patrol agents could remove razor-wire barriers that Texas installed. Senators are working on a border compromise. One sticking point: parole, a form of presidential discretion that lets migrants enter the U.S. Nine Democratic governors, led by Kathy Hochul of New York, urged the Biden administration and Congress to overhaul the immigration system. Some Republicans have proposed building a wall on the U.S. border with Canada. Israel-Hamas War Israel said 24 soldiers were killed in Gaza on Monday, making it the deadliest day for Israelis in the ground invasion. Israel's military said it had encircled Khan Younis, the main city in southern Gaza. See maps of the fighting. The U.S. expanded its attacks on sites controlled by Houthi militants in Yemen. At a meeting in Brussels, European foreign ministers pressed their Israeli counterpart, Yisrael Katz, to agree to the creation of a Palestinian state. International Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin.  Vladimir Smirnov/Sputnik Russia is using North Korea's newest missiles in its war with Ukraine, U.S. officials said. An appeals court revived a lawsuit filed by Mexico against U.S. gun manufacturers whose weapons are used by drug cartels. Cameroon began the world's first malaria vaccine program for children, The A.P. reports. A storm diverted dozens of flights in Britain and Ireland, sending passengers to other countries. Health A top cancer center affiliated with Harvard is seeking to retract or correct dozens of studies after an outside scientist discovered faulty data. Twice as many U.S. adults have gotten a flu shot this season as have gotten the latest Covid booster, STAT reports. Other Big Stories Cal State professors reached a tentative deal to raise wages, ending the largest strike by university faculty in U.S. history hours after it began. Many states are expecting significantly warmer weather in the coming days. After a prisoner survived a botched lethal injection, Alabama will try again with an untested method. Elon Musk continued to push back against accusations of antisemitism with a visit to Auschwitz, after which he called himself "aspirationally Jewish." Dexter Scott King, son of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and longtime leader of the King Center for Nonviolent Social Change, died at 62. Opinions Boeing shifted away from engineering excellence in favor of cost-cutting and its planes' safety has suffered, Bill Saporito argues. "No one should be left in agony because of false beliefs," Maia Szalavitz writes in an essay explaining why people with past addictions can safely use opioids to treat pain. Here's a column by Jamelle Bouie on Ron DeSantis. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Hitting their angles. Augustin Lignier Say cheese: A photographer devised a machine that let rats take selfies. The rats didn't want to stop. Grocery store chic: A social media account documents the designer outfits seen in the produce sections of Palm Beach, Fla. Teen Tiny Memoirs: The Times asked students to tell stories from their lives in 100 words or less. Out of thousands of submissions, these are our editors' favorites. Lives Lived: Norman Jewison could direct romantic comedies ("Moonstruck") and musicals ("Fiddler on the Roof"). But he was best known for films that addressed social issues, most notably the Sidney Poitier drama "In the Heat of the Night." He died at 97. SPORTS N.B.A.: The 76ers star Joel Embiid scored a franchise-record 70 points as his team beat San Antonio. But the Timberwolves lost to the Hornets despite a franchise-record 62 points from Karl-Anthony Towns. N.F.L.: The San Francisco 49ers are unsure whether their star wide receiver Deebo Samuel will be able to play in the N.F.C. championship this weekend after injuring his shoulder. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS The New York Times American tastes: Restaurant menus can be a time capsule of food culture. Last year, Times writers brought back more than 100 menus from their meals across the country to get a sense of the latest trends. They found that yuzu was inescapable; that caviar was popping up everywhere (even in a quesadilla); and that menus themselves have gotten smaller and brighter. See the year in menus. More on culture Netflix's head of film, who brought in directors like Martin Scorsese and Spike Lee, is leaving. "DeSantis knew it was time to go four months after the rest of us did": The late night hosts joked about DeSantis's departure from the Republican race. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Kate Sears for The New York Times Steam eggs in the microwave for a 10-minute breakfast. Work in comfort with an ergonomic seat cushion. Drink out of a versatile glass. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was flanked. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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