The Morning: A new insight into Trump’s rise

Plus, Biden's speech, Kamala Harris and lab-grown meat.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 25, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering a significant economic change and its effect on American politics — plus Biden's speech, Kamala Harris and lab-grown meat. A Trump rally in Michigan. Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Falling behind A common theory about Donald Trump's appeal is that working-class white people feel they fell behind as other groups pulled ahead. He recognized the sentiment and spoke to those voters' concerns. It turns out that those concerns are grounded in real economic changes, a new study from Harvard researchers shows. The researchers analyzed census and tax records covering 57 million children to look at people's ability to rise to the middle and upper classes — their mobility — over two recent generations. They found that it had improved among Black people and deteriorated among poor white people, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu shows: Source: Opportunity Insights | By The New York Times The study's full findings are nuanced, as Ashley and I explain in a story that The Times published today. Black people still, on average, make less money than white people, and the overall income gap remains large. But Black Americans who were born poor have gained ground while their white counterparts have lost some, narrowing the longstanding gap. That shift can help explain why some voters' attitudes have changed over the past couple of decades. Cutting in line After Trump won in 2016, many journalists — myself included — turned to the sociologist Arlie Hochschild's book on the American right, "Strangers in Their Own Land," to try to understand what had happened. Hochschild provided a helpful analogy, one that resonates with the Harvard study's findings. It goes something like this: White working-class people in red states saw the American dream as a queue moving people to prosperity. Over the past several decades, thanks to globalization and other changes, the queue stopped moving. And other groups have moved to the front of the queue. As a result, working-class white Americans often believe that their shrinking mobility is the result not just of outside forces like globalization but also of other groups that supposedly cut ahead. The Harvard study suggests that white working-class conservatives were right when they felt their own mobility had slowed, or even reversed, compared with that of Black Americans. (The researchers did not find significant changes for other racial groups.) The study also found that white people born into high-income families have seen their mobility improve — meaning the drop in mobility is restricted to the white working class. Trump has benefited from that reality. He has tapped into the resentment many white voters feel toward people of other races with his inflammatory and at times racist rhetoric, such as when he suggested Barack Obama was not born in the U.S. He has also criticized rich elites — which includes people who gained mobility as the working class lost out. As a result, some working-class white voters flipped from the Democratic Party to Trump between 2012 and 2016. Trump continues to have strong support from those voters, polls show. Of course, the evidence does not justify racial resentment. Economists say the queue analogy doesn't reflect how the economy actually works. A growing, healthy economy creates more queues to prosperity; it's not zero-sum, as the analogy suggests. In fact, the Harvard study found that white mobility had diminished least in the places where Black mobility had improved most. And while Black mobility has improved, it has not improved anywhere near enough to eliminate wide racial gaps between Black and white people. Gaps have narrowed, not closed. Still, Trump has tapped into many white voters' fears that they have been left behind while other lawmakers, particularly Democrats, have focused on policies that help minority groups. The Harvard study helps show why Trump has been able to do that. Insights for both sides The new research can also help explain changes among Black voters. They have slightly shifted toward Trump since 2020, polls show. One possible explanation is that some Black voters' economic gains have allowed them to focus more on noneconomic issues — such as abortion and L.G.B.T.Q. rights — on which they are more conservative than typical Democrats. Experts not involved with the study said that it would reverberate across the political spectrum. "The left and the right have very different views on race and class," Ralph Richard Banks, a law professor at Stanford, told me. "The value of the study is that it brings some unimpeachable evidence to bear on these questions." For more Type in your county to see how economic mobility has changed near you. Read our full story to learn more about how mobility has become more about class than race. THE LATEST NEWS Biden's Speech President Biden Pete Marovich for The New York Times In an Oval Office address, President Biden said he withdrew from the 2024 election to unite his party and protect American democracy. "I revere this office, but I love my country more," he said. See his speech. Biden added that he had chosen to "pass the torch to a new generation" and praised Kamala Harris: "She's experienced, she's tough, she's capable." He cited accomplishments — including on climate change, infrastructure, health care, the economy, NATO and gun safety — and said he would call for reforms to the Supreme Court. Trump watched Biden's speech from his plane after a campaign rally in North Carolina. On social media, he called it "sooo bad!" The speech, The Times's Peter Baker writes, "was all Joe, love him or hate him — the paeans to American exceptionalism, the evocations of family, the selective boasting." Read a transcript. Kamala Harris Harris called Trump's agenda "an outright attack on our children, our families and our future" at an event for a Black sorority in Indianapolis. Read how she took command of the Democratic Party in 24 hours. At a rally, Trump repurposed his criticisms of Biden against Harris, falsely accusing her of leading the prosecutions against him. Trump also stumbled over the word "abortion." Veepstakes: In a frenzy of attention, contenders are going on cable news. Black voters greeted Harris's candidacy with enthusiasm — but they worried about how a polarized country would respond. Harris loves to cook, and she has leaned into it in a way no other candidate has. More on the 2024 Election While in the White House, Trump suggested that disabled people "should just die," and in the 1970s, he used the N-word, his nephew Fred C. Trump III claims in a coming memoir. A Trump spokesman called the account "completely fabricated." Trump's convention speech this year was twice as long as his 2016 speech. The number of falsehoods he told also doubled, a Times analysis found. Netanyahu's Speech On Capitol Hill. Kenny Holston/The New York Times Benjamin Netanyahu called the war in Gaza "a clash between barbarism and civilization" in a speech to Congress. Netanyahu outlined his postwar vision for a "demilitarized and de-radicalized" Gaza with Palestinian civilian leaders "who do not seek to destroy Israel." He said Israel did not want to "resettle" the enclave but should have indefinite "security control" over it. The Israeli prime minister praised both Biden and Trump but did not mention Harris. He called pro-Palestinian protesters "Iran's useful idiots," Politico reports. Netanyahu received long standing ovations led by Republicans and often including Democrats. But some remained seated, and Senator Chuck Schumer did not shake Netanyahu's hand. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American member of Congress, held a sign that said, "Guilty of genocide." Roughly half of congressional Democrats skipped Netanyahu's speech, according to Axios. The Trump Shooting The gunman visited the rally site and searched online for details of John F. Kennedy's assassination, apparently typing, "How far away was Oswald from Kennedy?," Christopher Wray, the F.B.I. director, told Congress. Answering a question from Representative Matt Gaetz, Wray said that he hadn't noticed any "cognitive decline" in Biden. On social media, Trump called for Wray's resignation, Axios reported. International In Manila. Lisa Marie David/Reuters Typhoon Gaemi is churning toward China. Rescue workers are searching for nine sailors who went missing when a cargo ship sank in bad weather near Taiwan. Government and religious leaders in New Zealand physically and sexually abused more than 200,000 people under their care, according to a six-year investigation. Germany's Interior Ministry banned a prominent Shiite Muslim organization, calling it extremist. Other Big Stories Rupert Murdoch is in a secret legal battle against three of his children over the future of the family's media empire. Nashville reopened cases on three unsolved bombings during the Civil Rights era after a local author named possible suspects. Sunday was the hottest day recorded on Earth — until Monday beat its record. Opinions The U.S. should call China's bluff and increase its military presence in the South China Sea, Oriana Skylar Mastro argues. "One of the great joys of a long marriage is how the personal and pragmatic moosh together," Gail Collins writes about the death of her husband, Dan. Here are columns by Thomas Edsall on Trump and Vance, and Pamela Paul on Ivy League Republicans. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Fulton Fish Market in New York. Daniel Terna Fish-eating town: Here's an inside look at America's biggest fish market, where 3 a.m. is prime time. Sharks on drugs: Researchers found that 13 sharks off the coast of Rio de Janeiro had high levels of cocaine in their systems. Before Bum Bum Cream: Here's a look at 80 years of teen beauty trends. Social Q's: A woman is frustrated she isn't getting her mother-in-law's help with child care. Should she say something? Finance: Paper checks refuse to die. Lives Lived: Born into a patrician family, Lewis Lapham used Harper's Magazine, where he was an editor for more than 30 years, to denounce what he saw as the hypocrisies and injustices of a spoiled United States. He died at 89. SPORTS Soccer: Emma Hayes will coach her first competitive match with the U.S. women's national team today when the Americans play Zambia in the Olympics. Competition: A record-setting soccer player is leading the Zambian team. She only started playing seven years ago. Opening ceremony: The tennis star Coco Gauff, 20, will become the youngest Team USA flag bearer in Olympic history when she joins LeBron James at tomorrow night's festivities. Protest: Russia is banned from participating in the Olympics, and the Games won't be shown on TV there. N.B.A.: The league announced lucrative new rights agreements with Disney, Comcast and Amazon. ARTS AND IDEAS In Singapore.  Ore Huiying for The New York Times Singapore, which subsists on imported food, is letting a grocery store sell lab-grown meat — although it is expensive. Other countries are watching to see if Singapore's experiment is successful. Read more about it. More on culture Two brothers became famous online as high-flying real estate brokers. Now they face accusations that they drugged and sexually assaulted women. A contestant on a New Zealand reality show apologized after eating a protected bird. The Metropolitan Museum of Art is rebounding after the pandemic. But international visitors aren't coming like they once did. Stephen Colbert wants a Kamala Harris-Glen Powell ticket. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Cyd Raftus McDowell. Make ratatouille with summer vegetables. Read four great new graphic novels. Clean your water flosser the right way. Use "I" statements. They work, experts say. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was unkindly. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. 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