The Morning: Biden’s polling progress

Plus, Israel, Julian Assange and American pizza.

View in browser|nytimes.com June 25, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering Biden's recent progress in the polls — as well as Israel, Julian Assange and American pizza. Donald Trump  Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times Trump's narrow lead President Biden has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump in the past few months, but Trump still holds a small lead in the race for the presidency. That's perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race two days before the candidates' first debate — a debate unlike any other in U.S. history. It will occur more than four months before Election Day and before either candidate has received his party's formal nomination. All previous general-election presidential debates, dating to the first, in 1960, took place in October or late September. We're devoting today's newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning of The Times's 2024 polling averages. Those averages combine survey results from many pollsters, both for the U.S. as a whole and for seven battleground states. I recommend reading my colleague Nate Cohn's description of the averages in this article. As Nate explains, Biden began to rise in the polls around the time of his State of the Union address in March. He then rose further after Trump's felony conviction last month. The two are now essentially tied in the national polls, around 46 percent, when Robert F. Kennedy is excluded from the question. With Kennedy included, Trump leads Biden, 41 percent to 40 percent, with Kennedy at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided. In both the two-way and three-way race, Trump leads in the states likely to decide the outcome. "While he often leads by only a point or two, he does nonetheless hold the edge in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia — states that would be enough for Mr. Trump to win the Electoral College and therefore the presidency," Nate writes. "Of course, the election will not be held today and the polls will not be exactly right." Note: Averages may not add up to 100 because of support for other candidates or responses for "undecided." Source: Polling averages by The New York Times as of June 24. As we've explained in past newsletters, the outcome will depend partly on voters who are skeptical of both Biden and Trump. Many of them — including Black, Latino and younger voters — belong to groups that lean Democratic. But they also tend not to have a college degree and to be more conservative than younger college graduates. Many are unhappy with the country's direction and don't follow politics as closely as committed Democrats or Republicans do. One reason that this week's debate will be important is that it will focus these voters on the campaign in a way that few events have so far. A postscript I know that some Times readers believe the media shouldn't spend much time covering the horse race of a campaign. I partly agree and partly disagree and want to spend a minute on this issue. Covering the stakes of the election does indeed deserve more attention than the horse-race polls. That's why The Times spends so much time on the records and the campaign promises of Biden and Trump. My colleagues covering Trump have written in detail — and have broken news — about his plans for a second term. My colleagues in Washington have written about Biden's climate record, his foreign policy and much more. This new project compares Biden's and Trump's records on several major issues. In The Morning, we've devoted newsletters to democracy, immigration, economic policy, health care, labor unions, global alliances and more. But the horse race and the polls deserve some attention, too. Polls shape how the two candidates run their campaigns — the issues they emphasize, the ads they run and the debate tactics they choose. To cover a presidential campaign while ignoring the polls would be a bit like covering the economy while ignoring the business cycle. It would miss crucial information that shapes people's decisions. That said, we will continue to devote more attention to the campaign's issues and the stakes than the horse race. President Biden heading to Camp David on Thursday. Al Drago for The New York Times More on the election Biden has spent several days at Camp David, the presidential retreat, preparing for the debate. Bob Bauer, his personal lawyer, is playing the Trump role. Aides to Biden are pushing him to present himself as vigorous, while advisers to Trump want to temper his excesses, The Washington Post reports. The Times has assigned 60 journalists to cover the debate. This article explains how they will do so, while this one explains how The Times approaches fact-checking. ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Israel-Hamas War Israel's Supreme Court ruled that the military must draft ultra-Orthodox religious students, potentially overturning a longstanding exemption. Top American officials, including the C.I.A. director and the secretary of state, met with Israel's defense minister in Washington. The U.S. is trying to dissuade Israel from expanding its fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon. An Israeli strike in Gaza City killed the region's director of ambulance services, the health ministry said. Israel said it had killed a Hamas operative in the area. A pro-Palestinian protest outside a Los Angeles synagogue turned violent as demonstrators fought with pro-Israel counterprotesters. Biden and local leaders criticized the protest as antisemitic. Benjamin Netanyahu has said that the intense stage of the war will soon end. Read about four possibilities for what comes next. Iran Iranian presidential candidates have distanced themselves from harsh tactics enforcing the law that requires women to cover their hair. It's a sign that female-led protests have gained ground. Iran's Supreme Court overturned a death sentence imposed on an antigovernment rapper. Human rights groups and artists, including Sting, had criticized the sentence. More International News WikiLeaks released video of Julian Assange boarding a plane out of London. Wikileaks, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange left prison in Britain. He agreed to plead guilty to a single felony count, ending a long battle with U.S. prosecutors. China became the first country to retrieve rocks from the far side of the moon. They could offer clues about the origins of the moon and Earth. Russia has largely taken over the African operations of Wagner, the paramilitary group whose leader was killed after rebelling against Vladimir Putin. A Maryland couple died in the extreme heat while on pilgrimage in Mecca. Their daughter told The Washington Post that they were failed by a U.S.-based tourism company. Politics The Supreme Court agreed to hear a case about a Tennessee law banning some medical treatments for transgender minors. The U.S. surgeon general declared gun violence a public health crisis and recommended a campaign like the ones against smoking and traffic deaths. A group of Louisiana parents filed a federal lawsuit to block a new state law that requires public schools to display the Ten Commandments in every classroom. Representative Jamaal Bowman faces George Latimer today in a closely watched New York Democratic primary. Here's what to know. Other Big Stories In Iowa. KC McGinnis for The New York Times Severe flooding in the Midwest destroyed homes and left residents scrambling to evacuate. Read one couple's story of wading through neck-high waters. Over the past two decades, extreme wildfires have become twice as intense and far more frequent, a study found. European Union regulators, under a new tech competition law, accused Apple of imposing unfair restrictions in its App Store. Opinions "It's between chaos and competence": Hillary Rodham Clinton offers three things to watch for during the debate between Biden and Trump. Policy solutions matter in presidential debates. Personality, relatability and dignity matter more, Frank Luntz writes. "Based," "glazed" and "sus": Stephen Marche praises the slang of his teenage son's generation. Here are columns by Michelle Goldberg on Jamaal Bowman and Jamelle Bouie on Republicans and Biden. Games for relaxation. Games for concentration. We have them all. For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription and enjoy new puzzles every day. MORNING READS Illustration by Brian Rea Under our feet: Earth's crust teems with ancient and slow microbes that we're only beginning to understand. Menopause: Scientists are studying how to keep ovaries working longer, potentially preventing age-related diseases. Quiz: Can you tell the difference between real photographs and images made by A.I.? Aquarium crime: Animal smugglers are trafficking coral — yes, it's an animal — into the U.S. Lives Lived: The literary critic, essayist and author Frederick Crews was a leading voice among revisionist skeptics who considered Sigmund Freud a charlatan and psychoanalysis a pseudoscience. He died at 91. SPORTS Champions. Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports, via Reuters N.H.L.: The Florida Panthers won their first Stanley Cup, defeating the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 in a thrilling Game 7. Connor McDavid: The Oilers' star center won the Conn Smythe trophy for the playoffs' M.V.P. — a rarity for a player from the losing team. N.B.A.: JJ Redick, the new Los Angeles Lakers head coach, acknowledged his lack of league coaching experience in his introductory news conference, but maintained that he was qualified. ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS In Minneapolis. Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times Wood-fire-oven pizzerias, once rare outside Italy, now dot the American landscape — not only in cities, but in small communities from Southern Illinois and coastal New England to rural Wisconsin and Oregon. The result, Brett Anderson writes, is that pizza in the United States is better than it has ever been, with a diverse array of toppings and styles. Try it for yourself: Here are 22 of the best pizza restaurants across the U.S. More on culture Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri in "The Bear." Chuck Hodes/FX The third season of "The Bear" begins streaming tomorrow. Tejal Rao explores how the show has increased interest in restaurant workers. A trade group representing the major Hollywood studios has hired a former F.B.I. official to tackle online piracy. Visiting London this summer? Our critic has theater recommendations for audiences of all ages. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Linda Xiao for The New York Times. Save this recipe for strawberry lemonade cake for your weekend cookout. Stop breaking (or losing) your sunglasses with these tips. Free yourself from physical keys with a smart lock. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were hiccuped and hiccupped. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018