Today's guests and topics, plus: why wars often end without negotiation; and summer suffering …
Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. June 30, 2024 | |
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On GPS, at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET:
President Joe Biden's poor debate performance has shaken US politics—and global affairs, as another Donald Trump presidency would bring swift and drastic changes to American foreign policy. Will Biden stay in the race? Can he recover? Fareed discusses the big post-debate questions with former George W. Bush speechwriter and The Atlantic staff writer David Frum and Financial Times columnist and US national editor Edward Luce.
Despite palpable, newfound uncertainty about what will come next in the US and the Western world order, Fareed notes that both the US and the West have reserves of strength to draw from. Recent polling has shown that as China emerges and as Russia returns to the world stage, people around the world seem to prefer liberal Western values to autocratic ones, as Fareed details.
After that: Will Israel enter another war, this time with Hezbollah? Is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu making a mistake by planning a speech to the US Congress, as he clashes with the Biden administration over Gaza war strategy? Fareed talks with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
Finally: How have American Jews' sentiments about Israel evolved as the post-Oct. 7 Gaza war has dragged on? And how do the views of older and younger American Jews differ? Fareed talks with author and Rabbi Sharon Brous.
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To Understand Ukraine and Gaza, Look to the Falklands? |
Want to know what will happen in Ukraine and Gaza? At The New Statesman, British war historian Lawrence Freedman, who has written extensively about the war in Ukraine, suggests we can learn much from the 1982 UK–Argentina war over the Falkland Islands.
In particular, that conflict revealed something about how wars conclude, casting doubt on recent arguments for immediate, comprehensive agreements to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. The Falkland Islands War showed why "remarkably few wars end with negotiations on the dispute which prompted the war," Freedman writes. "More often, negotiations towards a lasting settlement take place well after an initial cease-fire. … If any war was going to be ended by a negotiation this was it. The value of the disputed land was questionable. (The war was famously described as being like 'two bald men arguing over a comb'.) It lacked the scale, ferocity, and duration of the wars that currently dominate the headlines."
Despite the seemingly low stakes in the Falklands, after fighting started, issues of territorial integrity and self-determination were at stake for Argentina and Britain. For the leadership of both countries, politics pointed to continued fighting. Argentina rejected a British proposal, and Britain vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire. Argentina ultimately backed down, and no future negotiations were planned.
"It is not hard to apply these lessons to the current diplomacy around both the Russo-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel Wars," Freedman writes, "for example in the way that the Israeli government was anxious to avoid a firm commitment to President Joe Biden's cease-fire proposal for Gaza, even after it had been backed by the Security Council, and relied on Hamas rejecting it first. Or in the way the Ukrainian and Russian governments have recently sought to garner support for a negotiating effort that would see their maximum demands met. It is important to remember that contrary to the idea that wars must end with a negotiated solution in practice they rarely do." |
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In the climate-change era, summer can mean suffering. After the deaths of more than 1,300 on an overheated Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, The New York Times' Damien Cave and Somini Sengupta wrote this week: "At large events all over the world, the scenes of extreme heat stress are starting to look familiar." And yet, "[m]any major-event organizers and attendees are still behind the climate curve, failing to contend with just how much a warming planet has elevated the risk to summer crowds."
"[I]t would be wrong to see this summer as exceptional in today's world," The Economist writes. "In many places a summer that might have been expected once a century between the 1950s and 1980s is now likely to occur once every five years. But many countries have no systematic plans to deal with them. And the plans they do have may be ineffective."
Heat often kills the old or infirm by exacerbating existing health problems, the magazine writes. To plan for the danger and damage heat entails, Aditya Valiathan Pillai of the Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative tells The Economist, "You need to sit down with three data sets—income, electricity and water provision—and see where those are lowest." Parts of Europe look particularly unprepared, as "many countries' infrastructure was designed for a climate distinctly cooler than today's," the magazine writes. "Perhaps unsurprisingly, places that have long had hot summers fare better. Spain is a good example. Houses in the south of the country tend to be whitewashed, often with shady interior courtyards. … Spain makes more concerted efforts to beat the heat, too. Most of the country is covered by dedicated heat plans, and the national government co-ordinates a heatwave alert system." |
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