When Xi Jinping arrived in Italy for a state visit in 2019, he was given a lavish welcome, with private tours of Roman landmarks and a dinner serenaded by opera singer Andrea Bocelli, topped with a crowning flourish – Italy's decision to join Xi's signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
Five years on, the Chinese leader returns to Europe in a very different climate. Xi landed in France Sunday, and while the pomp and ceremony may remain during his six-day European tour, views on China across the continent have shifted dramatically since his last visit.
In the past weeks alone, the European Union has launched trade probes into China's wind turbines and procurement of medical equipment, and raided offices of Chinese security equipment maker Nuctech as part of an investigation into subsidies. Germany and the United Kingdom in recent days also arrested or charged at least six people for alleged espionage and related crimes linked to China.
And in March, Italy formally exited the Belt and Road, costing the program its only G7 member country, in a blow to China and its leader.
Behind these developments are mounting economic grievances that have the EU preparing for a potential major trade confrontation with China – as well as growing suspicions about Beijing's global ambitions and influence driven by alarm over China's deepening ties with Russia as it wages war against Ukraine.
"China is seen increasingly as a multi-faceted threat in many European capitals. But there are divisions within Europe over how fast and far to go in addressing concerns about China, both in the economic and security spheres," said Noah Barkin, a Berlin-based visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Now, Xi's trip – with stops in France, Serbia and Hungary – is an opportunity to woo his critics, but also showcase that even as views are hardening in some parts of Europe, others still welcome China with open arms.
Beijing is keen to dampen Europe's push to address alleged trade distortions, which would come at a bad time for its flagging economy. It also wants to ensure Europe doesn't draw any closer to the US, especially amid uncertainty over the outcome of the upcoming US election.
Major breakthroughs with China's toughest critics will be hard to come by unless Xi is ready to make surprise concessions. And the trip could instead serve to underscore divisions – not only between Europe and China – but those within Europe that could play to China's favor, analysts say.
Xi's visit is set to start with one of his toughest critics.
The Chinese leader is slated to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen alongside French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.
Von der Leyen has spearheaded the EU's rallying cry to "derisk" its supply chains from China over concerns about securing its key technologies, and is driving a high-stakes anti-subsidy investigation backed by France into the influx of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports to Europe.
China earlier this year opened an investigation into the price of EU-imported brandy in a move that could hit France's cognac sector and is widely seen as retaliation for the probe.
In his meetings, Xi will likely press Beijing's message that "derisking" from China is perilous for Europe – while pushing back on European concerns about China's alleged overcapacity and subsidies and instead highlighting the role Chinese EVs can play in European and global efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Xi used similar rhetoric in a meeting in Beijing with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last month, in which critics accused the German leader of being too soft on China in the latest sign of divergence on China policy between Brussels and Berlin.
Keep reading about what's ahead for Xi's trip.
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