The Morning: Trump’s unstable advantage

Plus, a state dinner, the N.C.A.A. and driverless cars.

View in browser|nytimes.com May 24, 2024 SUPPORTED BY CONSUMER REPORTS Good morning. Today my colleague Nate Cohn offers a fresh look at Biden-Trump polling. We're also covering a state dinner, the N.C.A.A. and driverless cars. —David Leonhardt President Biden greets voters in Wisconsin. Doug Mills/The New York Times A polling risk for Trump By Nate Cohn Chief political analyst The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there's a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren't paying close attention to politics, who don't follow traditional news and who don't regularly vote. Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results — and the story line — about the election. President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Trump's gains came from these less engaged voters. Source: New York Times/Siena College surveys | 2020 data is adjusted to election results. | By The New York Times Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn't vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him. This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump's lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump's gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged. Trump's dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon. As voters tune in over the next six months, there's a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden. How they're different It's not just that less engaged voters are paying less attention. The Times/Siena data suggests that they have distinct political views, and that they get their political information from different sources. In the battleground states, Democratic-leaning irregular voters are far less likely to identify as liberal. They're less likely to talk about abortion and democracy and more likely to worry about the economy. They overwhelmingly believe the economy is "poor" or "only fair," while most of their high-turnout counterparts say it is "good" or "excellent." Source: New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada | By The New York Times One important factor might be media consumption. While Biden holds nearly all of his support from voters who consume traditional mainstream media — national newspapers, television networks and the like — the disengaged are far likelier to report getting their news from social media. Biden defectors are concentrated in this group. (A TikTok analysis found nearly twice as many pro-Trump posts on the platform as pro-Biden ones since November.) Low-turnout voters also pose a challenge for pollsters. While millions of them will undoubtedly turn out this November, no one knows just how many of them will ultimately show up — let alone exactly which ones will do so. This is always a challenge for pollsters. But in this cycle, if enough of them stay home, Biden could do much better on Election Day than it appears in the polls. Who will ultimately vote? If there are two consecutive elections with the same level of turnout, you might assume that the same people are voting each time. That's not the way it works. There's a lot more churn in the electorate than people realize. Even if the turnout stays the same, millions of prior voters will stay home and be replaced by millions who stayed home last time. Historically, around 25 percent of presidential election voters do not have a record of voting in the previous presidential election. This is partly because of newly registered voters, who usually vote in the next election (and who may have previously voted in a different state). But it's also because around 30 percent to 40 percent of previous registrants who skipped the last election ultimately show up for the next one. There are good reasons to expect fewer voters in 2024 than in recent cycles, as the 2020 election was the highest-turnout election in a century. But if you think that means that there won't be many new voters, you're already wrong: In fact, 10 percent of registered 2020 nonvoters already turned out and voted in the relatively low-turnout 2022 midterms. The usual churn is already at work. Still, Trump's strength among nonvoters means the exact number of new voters could be decisive. And exactly which new voters show up could also be pivotal. In recent years, Democrats have benefited from a hidden turnout advantage — a tendency for Democratic-leaners who vote to be more anti-Trump than those who stay home. With that history in mind, Democrats can hope that November's election will draw a disproportionately anti-Trump group of irregular voters to the polls. There were signs of this yet again in The Times's recent battleground polls. Of course, it's unlikely that disengaged, irregular voters have already formed solid plans about November. There's plenty of time for them to make up or change their minds about whom they might vote for — and about whether they'll vote at all. More on the election Biden's campaign released an ad aimed at Black voters that featured Trump's past remarks defending white supremacists. Trump said that only he could get Russia to release Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter jailed in Moscow. Vladimir Putin "will do that for me," he added. Nikki Haley joins Mitch McConnell, Bill Barr and other Trump critics who now endorse him. Other onetime allies, including Mike Pence and Chris Christie, have refused to. Much of Silicon Valley backs Democrats. But some investors, including two hosts of the popular "All In" podcast, have criticized Biden and embraced Trump. Democrats are investigating Trump's meeting with oil and gas executives in which he asked for $1 billion in campaign donations and pledged to reverse Biden's climate policies. Ohio's governor, a Republican, called a special legislative session to fix a procedural issue that could prevent Biden's name from appearing on the November ballot there. A MESSAGE FROM CONSUMER REPORTS Shop the tried and tested If it's in your home or outdoor space, we likely test it. Access CR's expert ratings before you buy. Subscribe Now THE LATEST NEWS Kenyan State Dinner The Bidens with President William Ruto of Kenya and the first lady, Rachel Ruto. Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Biden held a dinner in honor of Kenya, but the night was also meant to rally Democratic supporters. Barack Obama was a surprise guest. The guest list also included Bill and Hillary Clinton, Melinda Gates and Sean Penn. See who was there. Biden will designate Kenya as a major ally. Russia and China are also trying to strengthen ties with the country. Supreme Court The Supreme Court allowed South Carolina Republicans to keep a state voting map they drew to benefit their party. A lower court said the map diluted Black voters' power. Democrats said Justice Samuel Alito should recuse himself from Trump-related cases after The Times revealed that two pro-Trump flags flew above Alito's homes. Alito was the subject of late night jokes. More on Politics Louisiana's legislature passed a bill that would designate abortion pills as dangerous controlled substances and make possessing them without a prescription a crime punishable with jail time. The Republican governor is expected to sign it. Senate Republicans again blocked a bipartisan border-security bill. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent who helped negotiate it, also voted no. Voters in Portland, Ore., this week ousted the county's progressive prosecutor, Mike Schmidt. Schmidt lost to a deputy in his office who pledged to be tougher on crime. Israel-Hamas War Israel said it recovered the bodies of three hostages overnight in northern Gaza, The Washington Post reports. The U.S. military has delivered aid to Gaza through a temporary pier. But aid groups have struggled to distribute the supplies as hungry people have stopped and looted the trucks. Pro-Palestinian demonstrators at U.C.L.A. took over a campus building before police officers in riot gear dispersed them. Another group of university presidents — this time from Northwestern, U.C.L.A. and Rutgers — testified to a House committee about antisemitism and pro-Palestinian demonstrations. More International News Rishi Sunak Henry Nicholls/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images "Drowning Street"; "Things can only get wetter": The British press mocked Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for making a surprise election announcement in a downpour. See the headlines compiled by The Guardian. Russia is using advanced technology to interfere with Ukrainian troops' internet service, which comes from Elon Musk's satellites, Ukrainian officials said. China has millions of empty apartments. The government has a plan to buy them, but it may not work, Alexandra Stevenson writes. A restaurant collapse in Majorca, Spain, killed at least four people. Other Big Stories The Justice Department sued the company that owns Ticketmaster, arguing that it has an illegal monopoly. The government asked a court to break the company up. Forecasters expect an intense hurricane season this year, with up to 25 named storms. Cannabis now tops alcohol as Americans' daily drug of choice, a study found. Opinions Abortion rights is a win-win issue for Democrats. It motivates the base and appeals to swing voters, Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle write. An antisemitic conspiracy theorist is running for Senate in Minnesota. That he resonates with voters is a sign of a distorted sense of reality, Michelle Goldberg writes. Here are columns by Paul Krugman on Americans' views of the economy and David Brooks on populism. Our new offer starts now. Enjoy 7 free days to discover the complete Times experience, from news to games to cooking, sports and more, followed by your first six months for just $1 a week. Try The Times today. MORNING READS A portrait of Carlo Acutis. Pool photo by Vatican Vatican: An Italian teenager is set to become the first millennial saint. Los Angeles: For more than 60 years, Moonlight Rollerway has hosted fantastic skate parties. 36 hours: Take a trip to Traverse City, Mich. Modern Love: "I deserved an Oscar for my performances as best supporting wife and mother. After my divorce, I could no longer pretend." Lives Lived: Bob McCreadie, one of the winningest drivers in dirt racing history, cursed wildly, drove aggressively and occasionally broke his back in spectacular wrecks. He died at 73. SPORTS The double-overtime goal.   N.H.L.: Connor McDavid's double-overtime goal gave Edmonton a win over Dallas and a 1-0 lead in the Western Conference final. The game lasted nearly four hours. N.C.A.A.: An antitrust settlement could mean college athletes will get paid directly. Read how it might work. N.B.A.: Jaylen Brown scored 40 points and the Boston Celtics are up 2-0 in the Eastern Conference finals after beating the Indiana Pacers. A MESSAGE FROM CONSUMER REPORTS Shop the tried and tested If it's in your home or outdoor space, we likely test it. Access CR's expert ratings before you buy. Subscribe Now ARTS AND IDEAS In San Francisco. Jim Wilson/The New York Times San Francisco is known for cable cars and the Golden Gate Bridge. But tourists are seeking out a new attraction, too: driverless cars. These cars, also known as robotaxis, have been driving the streets of San Francisco in some form since 2009. But Waymo, which is owned by Google's parent company, has made driverless rides available to the public. Read more about them. More on culture Frank Lovejoy in "The Hitch-Hiker." National Film Registry, via Library of Congress The streaming platform Cultpix collects low-budget, high-creativity cult movies. Watch these films on it. Cassie Ventura said she was grateful for the support she received after CNN published surveillance video showing her being physically assaulted by Sean Combs, known as Diddy. Bella Hadid went viral after wearing a dress that looked like a Palestinian kaffiyeh at Cannes, The Cut reports. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Save the only ice cream recipe you'll ever need. Make the most of summer. Block noise with these headphones. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was wheeling. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. 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