The Morning: The Rafah argument

Plus, Stormy Daniels, the New York City subway and Mormon missionaries.

View in browser|nytimes.com May 10, 2024 SUPPORTED BY YOUTUBE By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the debate over Rafah — as well as Stormy Daniels, the New York City subway and Mormon missionaries. In southern Gaza.  Hatem Khaled/Reuters The key dispute At the heart of the dispute between President Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu over invading Rafah is a larger disagreement about what Israel can reasonably hope to accomplish against Hamas. In today's newsletter, I'll lay out the conflicting views of Biden and Netanyahu and summarize The Times's latest coverage of the war. Israel's view To Netanyahu and his aides, the destruction of Hamas is a vital goal. Israel's military has already made progress, having dismantled at least 18 of Hamas's 24 battalions since the Oct. 7 attacks. But Hamas's top leaders and thousands of fighters have survived, many evidently fleeing to tunnels under Rafah. Allowing a cornered enemy to escape violates basic precepts of military strategy, Israeli officials believe. "Ending the war without clearing out Rafah is like sending a firefighter to extinguish 80 percent of the fire," Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's war cabinet and Netanyahu's chief political opponent, has told U.S. officials. The Wall Street Journal editorial board, which tends to support Netanyahu, has called Rafah "the crucial city for the terrorist group's future." Israeli officials also know that many Arab leaders despise Hamas, viewing it as a threat to their own regimes. These leaders would be quietly happy for Israel to crush the group. Some Palestinians are also angry with Hamas (although public opinion in Gaza is difficult to gauge). As loud as the international warnings about a Rafah invasion may be, Israel's leaders believe that a successful operation there would change the strategic equation — and that they would then be able to negotiate from a position of strength with both Hamas's remnants and Arab countries. America's view To Biden — and many leaders of other countries — the destruction of Hamas is simply not a realistic goal. The group's fighters are in deep, fortified tunnels that could take months if not years to eliminate, U.S. intelligence officials say. Even if Israel killed most remaining fighters, new ones would emerge. Not only might the benefits of trying to wipe out Hamas be small, but the costs seem large, U.S. officials believe. The hostages Hamas still holds — who are likely being kept alongside the group's leaders — could die. And the humanitarian toll in Rafah, where many Gazan refugees have fled, could be horrific. "Smashing into Rafah," a Biden aide said yesterday, "will not get to that sustainable and enduring defeat of Hamas." Palestinians flee Rafah.  Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Already, Israel's initial operation in Rafah has had costs. After Israeli forces took over one side of a border crossing with Egypt, Egyptian officials temporarily closed the crossing, preventing aid from entering, U.S. officials say. Egypt — which has long blocked Gazans from entering, partly out of fear of Hamas — worries that a battle for Rafah could lead to an unstoppable flow of refugees. An invasion could cause rifts beyond Egypt, too. Saudi Arabia has previously signaled an interest in a diplomatic deal with Israel, which could solidify Israel's position as part of an anti-Iran alliance alongside Arab countries and the U.S. But a surge in civilian deaths in Gaza could make it hard for Saudi Arabia to justify any deal. (Thomas Friedman, the Times Opinion columnist, has argued that Israel must choose between Rafah and Riyadh, the Saudi capital.) Some moderate Israeli officials agree with parts of this critique. "Completely toppling Hamas and bringing the hostages home are two clashing goals," Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli military intelligence chief, has said. "We've already achieved the most important thing: dismantling Hamas as an organized army capable of an Oct. 7 attack." A third option Ultimately, the debate may be less binary than it sometimes seems. There is a third option, and it's one that the Biden administration seems to prefer, notes my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence. In this scenario, Israel would agree to end major military operations — accepting a "sustained calm," as negotiators call it — and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. In exchange, Hamas would return all hostages, in phases. Israel could then pursue a diplomatic deal with Saudi Arabia, in which an Arab coalition would run Gaza, sidelining Hamas. And Israel would retain the right to conduct targeted operations against top Hamas officials, like Yahya Sinwar. U.S. officials doubt the wisdom of a full-scale invasion, but not the strategic value of eliminating the Hamas leaders who planned Oct. 7. More on the war Cease-fire negotiations hit a snag yesterday as participants grew angry over Israel's incursion in Rafah. The C.I.A. director left Cairo, where the talks were taking place, as did delegations from Israel and Hamas. Israel and Hamas seem to be engaged in "dead-cat diplomacy," Peter Baker writes — with each seeking to ensure the other gets blamed if they fail to reach a deal. Even if the U.S. halts weapon shipments to Israel, as Biden has threatened, Israeli officials say they have enough munitions to fight in Rafah. The World Health Organization warned that hospitals in southern Gaza had only days' worth of fuel left. Donald Trump accused Biden of abandoning Israel, saying "any Jewish person" who voted for Biden "should be ashamed." American Muslim and Arab leaders say their communications with the White House have largely broken down. That could pose a problem for Biden's re-election. A MESSAGE FROM YOUTUBE There's only one YouTube This isn't your usual platform. This is where 60 million storytellers go to have a voice. And billions of people get to dive deep into the content they love, in all the ways they want to watch it. Find out more THE LATEST NEWS International In Pravdyne, Ukraine.  Mauricio Lima for The New York Times After Ukraine pushed Russian forces back, villagers in the Kherson region slowly rebuilt their lives. Now they're braced for a fresh assault. The former South African president Jacob Zuma has founded a new party, which is quickly gaining support. Xi Jinping met with Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, in Budapest. Orban is singular in the E.U. for his vocal support for China. 2024 Election At a private Mar-a-Lago dinner, Trump told oil executives and lobbyists that he would undo Biden's climate policies and asked them to give his campaign $1 billion. Petitioners are asking New Yorkers to sign in support of "independent" or "progressive" candidates. They don't mention it's to help Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Vice President Kamala Harris criticized the Supreme Court in an interview with The Times, saying conservative justices were "willing to undo recognized rights." An appeals court rejected Hunter Biden's effort to dismiss his federal gun charges. He's set to stand trial next month. Barron Trump, the former president's 18-year-old son, will be a Florida delegate to the Republican National Convention this summer. Trump on Trial Stormy Daniels  Charly Triballeau/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Trump's lawyer aggressively questioned Stormy Daniels at his Manhattan criminal trial, accusing her of lying about having sex with Trump and seeking to profit from her story. "You made all this up, right?" the lawyer asked, suggesting that Daniels, an adult film actress, knew how to create "phony stories about sex." Daniels replied that if her story were false, she "would have written it to be a lot better." Over two days, Daniels testified for almost eight hours. Trump glowered during some of it but later appeared to be dozing. The line for courtroom seats was long. One man said he'd arrived at 3 a.m. A former White House aide testified that she saw Trump sign checks in the Oval Office and helped arrange for Michael Cohen to visit in February 2017. Cohen has said that he and Trump discussed the hush-money payment to Daniels there. The judge denied a motion to let Trump publicly criticize Daniels now that she's done testifying and a second motion for a mistrial, chiding Trump's lawyers. The late night hosts recapped Daniels's testimony. "It was quite a day to be a stenographer," Jimmy Kimmel said. More on Politics The Biden administration proposed letting immigration officials quickly remove migrants who are ineligible for asylum, to reduce backlogs at the border. "I'm thrilled with the whole thing": Marjorie Taylor Greene said that her failed effort to unseat Speaker Mike Johnson proved that Democrats had co-opted him. The Senate passed legislation to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration and hire more air traffic controllers. It now heads to the House. New York Outside Fulton Street subway station.  Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times Medical workers and police officers are removing often-homeless mentally ill people from the New York City subway. A cruise ship arrived in the city with an unexpected passenger: the 44-foot carcass of an endangered whale. Other Big Stories In Stanwood, Wash.  Jovelle Tamayo for The New York Times Despite the bird flu outbreak in cows, U.S. dairy farmworkers aren't widely tested for the disease, and none have been vaccinated against it. The Supreme Court made it harder for people to argue for the return of property seized by the police, ruling against two Alabama women who tried to recover confiscated cars. Opinions Biden's pause of military shipments to Israel will only embolden Hamas, Bret Stephens writes. Factory farming and habitat destruction helped turn bird flu into an ecological disaster, Alex Tey writes. Here are columns by Michelle Goldberg on a war on progressive nonprofits and Pamela Paul on mothers better than her. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS At the Los Angeles Temple in California.  Isadora Kosofsky for The New York Times Women in pants: The Mormon Church has made some "big, big changes" for its young missionaries. The 401(k): How an obscure tax change over 40 years ago transformed retirement. Real estate: Dallas tops the list of the most dog-friendly U.S. cities for renting a home. Periodical romance: Mating is delicate for cicadas. Courtships proceed in roughly three phases. Lives Lived: Barbara Stauffacher Solomon helped pioneer the 1960s design movement known as supergraphics, which aimed, one advocate wrote, to "destroy architectural planes, distort corners and explode the rectangular boxes that we construct as rooms." She died at 95. SPORTS N.B.A.: The Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Boston Celtics, 118-94. And the Dallas Mavericks upset the Oklahoma City Thunder, 119-110. That evens both their playoff series at 1-1. N.H.L.: The New York Rangers took a 3-0 lead over the Carolina Hurricanes with a second straight overtime win, 3-2. And the Dallas Stars defeated the Colorado Avalanche, 5-3, to even their second-round series 1-1. A MESSAGE FROM YOUTUBE There's only one YouTube This isn't your usual platform. This is where 60 million storytellers go to have a voice. And billions of people get to dive deep into the content they love, in all the ways they want to watch it. Find out more ARTS AND IDEAS Miles, the rescue mutt.  Daniel Lozada for The New York Times While the Westminster Kennel Club's dog show is open only to purebreds, its agility competition — a race over, around and through obstacles — lets any dog compete, whoever its parents are. The Times's Sarah Lyall met Miles, a rescue mutt ("All-American dog" is the official label) who will run the course on Saturday. "You don't need a 'well-bred dog' to have a best friend to play in dog sports with," Christine Longnecker, Miles's owner, said. "You can find one right down the street at your local shelter." More on culture The journalist Jason Parham. Disney The Hulu docuseries "Black Twitter: A People's History" argues that Black users gave Twitter its voice. A collector donated more than 1,100 specimens to help rebuild Brazil's fire-damaged National Museum. "Ice Cold" at the American Museum of Natural History exhibits jewelry owned by rappers including the Notorious B.I.G. and Nicki Minaj, The Washington Post reports. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Romulo Yanes for The New York Times Marinate chicken with garlic, ginger, cilantro and mint for a once-secret family recipe. Ride a hybrid bike. Use these tools instead of a manual vegetable chopper. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was dazzling. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018