The Morning: China’s role in Ukraine

Plus, Rafah, abortion and theater in Ukraine.

View in browser|nytimes.com May 28, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering China's support for Russia — plus Rafah, abortion and theater in Ukraine. In Kharkiv, northern Ukraine.  Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times A proxy war Over the last few weeks, a Russian blitz has claimed more than a dozen villages in northeast Ukraine, near the country's second-largest city. This summer, Russia will likely continue its offensive push in the country's east. Russia's ability to carry out these attacks is in some ways surprising. War is expensive. And Russia's economy is limited by steep sanctions from some of the richest countries in the world. Yet Moscow has managed to keep paying for its war machine. How? U.S. officials point to China. China has vowed not to send weapons to Russia. But it has supported Russia's economy by buying oil and expanding other kinds of trade. Russia uses the revenue from that trade to manufacture weapons. It has also bought parts for these weapons from China, according to U.S. officials: Last year, Russia got 90 percent of its microelectronic imports from China, using them for missiles, tanks and planes. Without Beijing's help, Moscow might still continue its war, but it would do so in a weakened state. Of course, Washington and its allies have also provided support, including actual weapons, to Ukraine. From that angle, the war looks more like part of the broader contest between the U.S. and China — what some analysts call a new cold war — than a one-off conflict. "We are headed into 30 or 40 years of superpower competition and confrontation," said my colleague David Sanger, who covers national security and recently published the book "New Cold Wars." Ukraine is just the current front. Today's newsletter will explain what China stands to gain — and lose — by backing Russia. China's wager Support for Russia is risky. The U.S. and Europe have warned that they could place sanctions on China if it supports the war. But to China, the benefits of a Russian victory in Ukraine may outweigh the costs. Among those benefits: The war has entangled the U.S. and its allies in a faraway conflict, straining the U.S. military's ammunition stockpiles. It has made Russia, a big military power, more dependent on China. It has also been instructive: China has ambitions to invade Taiwan, and it has watched Russia's gamble to see the world's response — one that has exposed the limits of America's reach. While Washington got its closest allies to punish Russia for the invasion, big democracies such as Brazil and India continue to buy Russian oil. "Countries around the world won't follow the U.S. where it wants to go, even with what U.S. officials consider a black-and-white issue like Ukraine," my colleague Edward Wong, who covers foreign policy, told me. "That is much clearer since the war." Sergio Lima/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Still, China's support for Russia could backfire — and in some ways already has. It angered European leaders, who criticized Beijing's involvement when China's president, Xi Jinping, visited France this month. Arguably, China's interference has made it easier for the U.S. to adopt tougher trade restrictions and other policies designed to hurt Beijing. The war united the U.S. and its allies to an extent not seen in decades. If Russia loses, China could be stuck with a diminished partner and frayed relations with some of the world's biggest economies. To balance the risks and benefits, China has tried to walk a fine line. It has boasted about a "no limits" partnership with Russia. But it also claims it's neutral in the war and has tried to maintain plausible deniability in its support for its partner. The bottom line Will China's bet pay off? It depends on the conflict's outcome. If the U.S. and its allies were to stop supporting Ukraine and it lost the war, China's biggest partner would come out on top. The West would not look as strong or united as it once was. Knowing this, China might become more aggressive in its territorial claims in Taiwan, the South China Sea and elsewhere. But if the West remained united and Ukraine won, the opposite would be true. Russia would be weakened and embarrassed. The U.S. and its allies would have proved that they remained formidable. And China might reconsider if it could afford to take aggressive action to expand its borders. For more The world's advanced economies are moving toward an agreement that would use profits from Russia's frozen assets to help Ukraine. These maps show Russia's recent advances in the war. Read more about how Russia's economy has endured Western sanctions. ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Israel-Hamas War In Rafah, southern Gaza.  Eyad Baba/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Israel faced international condemnation over a strike that was followed by a fire at a camp for displaced Palestinians, killing at least 45 people. Witnesses described charred bodies and flames. A doctor said the majority of the victims he saw were women and children. The strike killed two Hamas officials, the Israeli military said. Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of hiding among civilians and called the killings "a tragic accident." An Egyptian soldier was killed in a shooting near the Rafah crossing, the Gaza border checkpoint where Israel seized control three weeks ago. More International News In Lucknow, India.  Saumya Khandelwal for The New York Times "Don't let anyone divide you": Aging activists in India are preaching harmony as the ruling party vilifies religious minorities. 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Our new offer starts now. Enjoy 7 free days to discover the complete Times experience, from news to games to cooking, sports and more, followed by your first six months for just $1 a week. Try The Times today. MORNING READS At Ballet Tech.  Bess Adler for The New York Times Ballet Tech: See inside this tuition-free New York City public school. Millennial midlife crisis: It has arrived. Some people aren't taking it well, The Cut reports. Italy: A little island near Sicily wants to send its wild goats to new homes. Catching them won't be easy. Conservation: See how the "tree lobster," a rambunctious stick insect, escaped extinction. Safety: Gen Z are soaking up misinformation about sunscreen and skin cancer. Lives Lived: Stanley Goldstein helped start CVS in the 1960s and turned it into a pharmacy giant. He died at 89. SPORTS N.B.A.: The Boston Celtics defeated the Indiana Pacers to advance to the league finals. Tennis: Rafael Nadal lost his first-round match at the French Open to the fourth seed Alexander Zverev. It's probably Nadal's final time at the competition. N.H.L.: The Dallas Stars defeated the Edmonton Oilers in Game 3 of the Western Conference final. ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS In Kyiv.  Nicole Tung for The New York Times In downtown Kyiv, people line up for hours to buy tickets for "The Witch of Konotop," a play based on a classic 19th-century Ukrainian novel that begins with the line: "It is sad and gloomy." It follows a Cossack leader as he tries to root out witches believed to be responsible for a drought. All the while, a military threat from czarist Russia looms. "It is very hard to overplay the harsh reality Ukrainians are living in now, but theater should feel the mood of the time and the people," the director said. More on culture Wayne Brady as the Wiz in the show's Broadway revival. Richard Termine for The New York Times Wayne Brady and Nichelle Lewis, the stars of a revival of "The Wiz," spoke with The Times about the beauty of an all-Black Broadway show. David Nicholls's new novel is a love story set during a dayslong hike. That's "an ideal structure for an affectingly hard-won romance," our reviewer writes. The choreographer Shay Latukolan, who has worked with Jungle and Childish Gambino, blends old-school showmanship with TikTok dance vocabulary. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Ryan Liebe for The New York Times Make a cold salad with Italian antipasti ingredients. Save money at REI's big sale. Try a low-impact HIIT workout. Transform your kitchen with an induction cooktop. Buy a very good gift for a very good dog. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was handily. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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