The Morning: Ukraine’s new phase

Plus, migration, the Middle East and a volcanic moon.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 5, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering the coming months of the war in Ukraine — plus, migration, the Middle East and a volcanic moon. In Kyiv. Laura Boushnak for The New York Times Beyond the front lines The war in Ukraine has again entered a new phase. With neither side believing that it can make significant territorial gains, the action has expanded beyond the front lines. Over the past week, Russia has bombed Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and other cities far from the front. The aim is not to gain territory, but to destroy infrastructure and wear down Ukrainians by making their lives harder. By doing so, Russia hopes to undermine the impressive national unity that Ukraine has maintained over the past two years. Ukraine responded with missile attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod. Ukraine has also intensified its use of guerrilla tactics over the past few months. It blew up a train in Russia, used sea drones to attack Russia's navy in the Black Sea and destroyed infrastructure in the Russian-controlled peninsula of Crimea. Ukraine is trying to demonstrate that it can still make progress, even as it has struggled to retake territory in the largely Russian-controlled Donbas. By The New York Times The attacks are "an acknowledgment of the stalemate," said Stacie Goddard, an international security expert at Wellesley College. "This is all they can do." Today's newsletter explains why these tactics will likely define the war in the coming months. A continued stalemate The new phase is a response to disappointments that both sides have experienced. Russia failed to take Kyiv and topple Ukraine's government in the early days of the war, and last year failed to expand its territory by much. It now controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian land, a large portion of which it seized in 2014, rather than during the current war. Ukraine's disappointments have been more recent. During a much anticipated counteroffensive that began last summer, Ukraine mostly failed to break through Russian lines in the east and southeast. Leaders on both sides have come to recognize that dislodging a dug-in enemy is extremely difficult. Both sides' militaries are also depleted. Russia's army is running short on manpower and equipment. To carry out a new offensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin would most likely need to call a new draft, which might be unpopular and weaken public support for the war. Ukraine's troops are similarly exhausted, and its supplies are running low. Ukrainian battalions report that they have reduced their artillery firing by as much as 90 percent compared with last summer. "This is perhaps the bleakest time for Ukraine's military," my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, said. Ukrainian officials argue that only more Western support can turn things around. But it is not clear that aid will come. In Europe, far-right parties, which are less supportive of aid, have gained traction. Hungary's far-right government recently blocked additional E.U. aid for Ukraine, and other countries are now trying to decide whether to offer support through other channels. In the U.S., congressional Republicans have blocked further aid until Democrats agree to changes to immigration policy. And this year's elections could put Donald Trump, who is skeptical of more aid, in the White House. "For Putin, the main events will be in Washington," my colleague Julian Barnes said. Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region.  Tyler Hicks/The New York Times The coming months A major question about the near term is whether the two sides will move closer to a peace agreement. Putin seems more open to a cease-fire that would let Russia keep the territory it has now, as The Times reported last month. To that end, Russia seems focused on holding its gains and continuing to bomb Ukrainian cities to damage civilian morale. Russia is unlikely to carry out a big offensive, but it might try to make small advances in the parts of the Donbas that it doesn't already control. U.S. officials have advised Ukraine to rebuild this year, and not to attempt a new counteroffensive. Still, Ukrainian leaders believe that they need to show progress on the battlefield to shore up Western support. At the least, Ukraine is likely to continue its guerrilla tactics, sabotaging infrastructure deep in Russian territory and hitting Russia's navy. Wars are unpredictable, and a surprising breakthrough from either side remains possible. But the chances have risen that the next 12 months of war will end up in a stalemate. For more: North Korea is giving Russia ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian fighter jets and other military technology, the White House said. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Election Ron DeSantis criticized Donald Trump's abortion stance at a CNN town hall in Iowa, where he made his most forceful attacks yet against the former president. In another town hall broadcast right after, Nikki Haley appeared uncomfortable and on the defensive over a string of recent campaign missteps. In a new ad, Chris Christie said he "made a mistake" when he endorsed Trump in 2016. Trump has used cajoling phone calls and threats on social media to win Republican endorsements. The head of the Teamsters union, which endorsed President Biden in 2020 but has yet to back a 2024 candidate, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Migration Democratic leaders in cities thousands of miles from the border want more federal help to deal with migrant inflows. Mayor Eric Adams sued 17 bus companies that he said had helped Texas officials send tens of thousands of migrants to New York City. 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In the years that followed, he began to suspect that a man who had advised him on the sales had been boosting their prices, inventing rejected bids or secretly buying the works himself before reselling them. Now, Rybolovlev has sued the famed auction house Sotheby's, accusing it of helping the adviser inflate the prices. The trial begins next week in New York. More on culture The Safdie brothers, the filmmaking duo behind "Uncut Gems" and "Good Time," will no longer make movies together, Bennie Safdie confirmed in a recent interview. Times critics share their picks for the films and performers deserving of Oscar nominations this year. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Linda Xiao for The New York Times Toast rice before cooking to make a delicious butter pilaf. Improve your relationship with food. Clean your humidifier. Meditate with the help of an app. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was optimal. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German P.S. Adam Kushner, a sharp and curious editor, is joining The Times to help run this newsletter. We're excited to work with him. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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