The Morning: Three questions about Iowa

Plus, the Middle East, freezing weather and a beluga whale.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 15, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering tonight's Iowa caucuses — as well as the Middle East, freezing weather and a beluga whale. Des Moines, Iowa. Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times Three questions So far, the 2024 presidential campaign looks to be the least competitive in decades. The incumbent president is likely to win the Democratic nomination easily, while a former president seems to be running away with the Republican nomination. Of course, this conclusion is based only on opinion polls, rather than actual voting. By tonight, however, voting will have begun, at least on the Republican side, thanks to the Iowa caucuses. Today's newsletter offers a preview, in the form of three questions. 1. What's the biggest story tonight? Don't get distracted by secondary issues. The big question is whether Donald Trump wins the landslide victory that polls have forecast. If he does, it will be the clearest sign yet that he is on pace to join Richard Nixon, Franklin D. Roosevelt and only a handful of earlier politicians who won the nomination of a major party at least three-times. Recent polls have shown Trump receiving around 50 percent of the Republican vote in Iowa, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both at 20 percent or below. The only other significant candidate remaining is Vivek Ramaswamy, who has been polling below 10 percent. Even if Trump fares a little worse than polls indicate, a landslide win would suggest he is the overwhelming favorite for the nomination. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times 2. Who will finish second? "If the polls are even in the ballpark, the only interesting race might be the one for second place," Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, wrote in his latest newsletter. The best outcome for Trump's detractors (short of a shocking upset) would be for either Haley or DeSantis to finish well ahead of the other one. That outcome could allow the second-place finisher to emerge as the clear alternative to Trump, with a chance to consolidate the anti-Trump vote starting in New Hampshire, which holds its primary a week from tomorrow. In the short term, Haley may be the bigger threat to Trump because she has a better chance to win New Hampshire. It is home to many highly educated and moderate Republicans, who are Haley's base. She also has some support among independents, who can vote in New Hampshire's primaries. As Nate writes: She had already pulled to within striking distance of Mr. Trump there before Chris Christie withdrew from the race. Historically, primary polling is extremely volatile, and the candidates who surge late often keep surging. Ms. Haley might still need just about everything to go right, and a burst of favorable media coverage after Iowa would only help. Beyond New Hampshire, these affluent, moderate Republicans make up a smaller portion of the voters. Even if Haley were to surge in Iowa and then win an upset in New Hampshire, she would remain the underdog. DeSantis, by contrast, now looks weaker than Haley. But if he could somehow revive his campaign with a strong second-place finish tonight, he might be better positioned than Haley in the long term. He can compete for the more conservative, working-class voters that are Trump's base, and they will likely decide the outcome in many primaries that follow New Hampshire. As Nate notes, Trump's criminal trials inject more uncertainty into this nomination campaign than most campaigns. If Trump is convicted and Republican voters or delegates sour on him this spring or summer, a strong second-place finisher would be the obvious potential replacement. That runner-up could be either Haley or DeSantis. (Here's our recent guide to Trump's trials, with a focus on their timing.) 3. Why aren't Democrats voting tonight? For decades, Iowa Republicans and Democrats voted in caucuses on the same night. But Democratic officials recently decided to move back their contest and instead start with South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. This latter group of states is more diverse, and better reflects the rest of the country, than Iowa and New Hampshire. New Hampshire Democrats have decided to fight the change and will hold a primary next week even though the national party has said the result will not count toward the nomination. As my colleague Reid Epstein has explained, "Iowa Democrats, ashamed by a 2020 fiasco that included a dayslong wait for results that were nonetheless riddled with errors, have meekly accepted their fate as primary season also-rans." The candidates for the Democratic nomination, in addition to President Biden, are Dean Phillips (a member of Congress from Minnesota) and Marianne Williamson (an author who also ran in 2020). More on the campaigns The candidates made their final pitches in Iowa, braving subzero temperatures to court voters at restaurants and rallies. These are forecast to be the coldest Iowa caucuses in history. The campaigns are worried the weather could affect turnout. DeSantis urged his supporters to show up at caucuses despite the forecast. At his only rally of the weekend, in Indianola, Trump intensified his criticism of Haley, saying she was backed by people who "crave to destroy the MAGA movement." Haley told a crowd in Ames that America needed "a new generational leader that leaves the negativity and the baggage behind." Some college-educated conservatives are joining blue-collar voters to support Trump. More on Iowa Iowa's caucuses are not like the traditional election. Meet some of the people whose job it is to sway attendees' votes. Super PACs have broken records with their spending in Iowa, Politico reports. Jimmy Carter put the Iowa caucuses on the political map. Read a history of the caucuses from The Washington Post. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Middle East The U.S. said it shot down a Houthi missile that was aimed at a Navy ship. Iran has pushed its proxies, including the Houthis, to make trouble for the American military. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to keep fighting in Gaza after lawyers at the world's top court criticized Israel's offensive. Members of an Israeli group that recovers dead bodies responded to the Oct. 7 attacks. Read their stories. Some progressive Jews are embracing "diasporism" and reimagining their faith outside Israel. War in Ukraine Nadiia Yefremova, 80. Lynsey Addario for The New York Times Some older Ukrainians can't afford to leave their country. Others say they won't abandon their homes. The destruction of factories and the government's wartime powers have curbed the influence of Ukraine's oligarchs. More International News Copenhagen on Sunday. Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix Foto, via Associated Press In Copenhagen, people celebrated the accession of Denmark's new king, Frederik X. Guatemala's new president, Bernardo Arévalo, was sworn in after midnight, despite efforts by opponents to delay the ceremony. India has 50 million criminal and civil cases pending. At the current rate, it would take 300 years to clear the backlog. In Dublin, soaring rents have left many struggling to afford homes. Two-thirds of younger adults in the city live with their parents. Construction is altering the unique cultural identity of Greek islands. Locals are pushing back. Other Big Stories Snowplowing in Des Moines. Ruth Fremson/The New York Times It's freezing. Find the risk of frostbite where you are and see photos of the severe weather. California reduced incentives for homeowners to install rooftop solar panels. Some renewable energy companies are leaving the state. A majority of New York City seniors are immigrants. Many hoped to make enough to retire in their countries of origin — but they never did. Recent plagiarism controversies at universities like Harvard are prompting questions about the quality of academic research. Opinions To solve the border crisis, the U.S. needs to grow the economy across the Americas and prevent people from becoming migrants in the first place, Andrea Flores writes. The problem with D.E.I. isn't diversity, equity or inclusion, but the unconstitutional means universities use to advance them, David French writes. The DeSantis campaign is revealing what Republican voters really want, Ross Douthat writes. All of The Times. All in one subscription. Enjoy unlimited access to everything we offer — with this introductory offer. You'll benefit from more of the insights that you find in The Morning, every morning. MORNING READS Hvaldimir went AWOL. Joakim Eskildsen/Institute, for The New York Times A whale of a controversy: The beluga Hvaldimir escaped captivity and became a celebrity, but some are worried about his welfare. Abergwyngregyn dispatch: Few know Wales for its whiskey, yet the country is experiencing a revival in production. History of hustling: The word "hustle" was first recorded in the 17th century. In the 20th, it took on an economic context in African American communities. Pilgrimage: Chicago's latest attraction is a rat-shaped hole in a sidewalk. Metropolitan Diary: He got louder and louder. Lives Lived: Joyce Randolph played Trixie Norton on the classic 1950s sitcom "The Honeymooners." She died at 99. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Detroit Lions won their first playoff game in 32 years, defeating the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23. More playoffs: The Dallas Cowboys' playoff curse continues — the Green Bay Packers upset them, 48-32. And the Houston Texans' rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud shredded the Cleveland Browns defense, leading his team to a 45-14 win. Frozen: On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins. It was was so cold that Patrick Mahomes's helmet shattered on a hard hit. College football: Washington hired Arizona's Jedd Fisch to replace Kalen DeBoer, who just departed to supplant Nick Saban at Alabama. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS A scene from "Pokémon Concierge." Netflix Relax with Pikachu: Netflix's "Pokémon Concierge," at first glance, might seem like childish fare, but it has found an audience among anxious millennials. In it, an overachieving young woman abandons her stressful life to work at an island resort for adorable monsters. It has no plot and incredibly low stakes; the Pokémon here would rather visit a spa than battle one another. It's "a rare example of a franchise seizing upon how the culture and its fan base have changed," the Times critic Maya Phillips writes. More on culture The Emmy Awards are on tonight after the ceremony was postponed from the fall because of actor and writer strikes. "Succession" has 27 nominations. See how to watch. Hit men are a staple of Hollywood thrillers. But in real life, murder plots are marred by ineptitude, experts say. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Julia Gartland for The New York Times Roast salmon slathered in a creamy horseradish mayonnaise alongside mustard potatoes. Cook with Wirecutter's favorite cast-iron skillet. Eat healthier with whole grains. Brave snow with these winter boots. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was actuality. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018