The Morning: The influence of aid

Plus, Marco Rubio, deportations and hockey.

View in browser|nytimes.com February 21, 2025 Good morning. Today, my colleague Jeffrey Gettleman writes about the costs of cutting U.S.A.I.D. We're also covering Marco Rubio, deportations and hockey. —David Leonhardt At a camp for internally displaced people in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, in 2021. J. Countess/Getty Images Losing influence By Jeffrey Gettleman I've been an international correspondent for more than 20 years. Foreign aid isn't just charity. It's power. That was the original idea behind the United States Agency for International Development, which J.F.K. set up in the early 1960s to win the support of developing countries that might have otherwise drifted into the Soviet sphere. Elon Musk dismantled it in recent weeks. For now, most of its work has stopped and its worldwide staff has been called home. President Trump and his team have criticized a few progressive State Department programs, like a Colombian opera about a trans character and a D.E.I. music event in Ireland. But the core of U.S.A.I.D.'s mission has been helping the world's poor, and it was a means to an end. "You have to understand," a veteran American diplomat told me, "we didn't do this work because we're all a bunch of bleeding-heart liberals. We did it for influence." In today's newsletter, we'll examine that effort — and the results it got. Good works How do you measure influence abroad? Experts have come up with the acronym DIME — diplomacy, information, military, economic — to describe the traditional levers of power. U.S.A.I.D. covers every aspect but the military one. By Malika Khurana When I was covering East Africa, I ran into U.S.A.I.D. all the time. I saw sacks of wheat stamped "U.S.A.I.D. From the American People" trucked out to famine areas in Somalia. I saw thin-walled, U.S.A.I.D.-funded schools in South Sudan giving kids their first crack at education. I met bright young people who won scholarships to study in the U.S., planting little seeds of pro-American sentiment everywhere. I wrote about American aid being stolen and misused, too, and there's no doubt that U.S.A.I.D. was ripe for reform. There is a long-running debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid. Scholars have criticized it for failing to reduce poverty or stimulate economic development. There are infamous examples of expensive disasters — like a Norwegian-backed frozen fish factory in a very hot part of Kenya. But that was in the 1980s. These days, most aid for Kenya goes toward food security and health programs, which even critics acknowledge save lives. The billions Washington spent there has paid off. Over the years, Kenya has become one of America's most reliable allies in the developing world. It has served as an operations center for antiterrorism strikes in the region. It buys more American goods like aircraft parts each year. As other African nations cozy up to Russia, a Kenyan diplomat delivered one of the most eloquent and rousing speeches at the United Nations condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Now, foreign aid is not the only reason for this. Kenya has always been close to the West. But there is no doubt that many Kenyans are grateful for the American help and that the U.S.-Kenya relationship gets tighter each year. The aid Kenya was relying on has vanished, at least for now. That could leave Kenyans feeling burned, undermining the soft power the United States has spent decades — and billions — cultivating. Already, Beijing is desperate to find allies in Africa, said Michael H. Chung, an infectious disease doctor from Emory's Global Health Institute who has worked in Kenya. "We will be ceding one of the world's most economically dynamic and youthful regions to China," Chung lamented. Consequences In Ethiopia in 2021. Jemal Countess/Getty Images The abrupt end to $44 billion in aid has been chaotic. And wasteful. Hundreds of millions of dollars of food may soon rot in the ports and warehouses where it is stuck. The battle against deadly disease, too, could suffer. Until last month, the United States provided medication for 20 million H.I.V. patients. The secretary of state said that work should continue, but now the program is in disarray. Without the meds, those lives are at risk and so is the effort to stop the spread and mutation of H.I.V. The ramifications are clearly not just humanitarian. Business executives fret that aggrieved nations might make it harder for Americans to get travel or work visas. Or they might cast more votes against American interests at the United Nations. Anti-Western sentiment in West Africa eventually calcified into official pro-Russia policies. American and French troops have been kicked out of one country after another. This is how it works. There may not be a decisive break but a steady, inexorable erosion of support. Some of Trump's allies argue that U.S.A.I.D. was an irritant in the relationship with authoritarian countries like Hungary, for example. Viktor Orban, its strongman leader, often complains about U.S. support for pro-democracy groups. The view at U.S.A.I.D. was that influence is won not just from governments, but also from people — who may eventually take back their governments. Ukraine and Georgia are countries where aid supported Western-leaning democratic movements that eventually took power. In exchange for the freeze Elon Musk has imposed, the United States will save less than 1 percent of its budget. If those savings are put toward renewing or expanding Trump's tax cut, which seems likely, those billions will flow directly from the mouths of the world's poorest into the pockets of the world's richest. Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, said that every aid dollar must answer three questions: "Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?" U.S.A.I.D., foreign policy experts say, answered all three. THE LATEST NEWS Trump and Europe Marco Rubio Pool photo by Evelyn Hockstein In private remarks, Rubio tried to reassure European allies that the U.S. hasn't significantly changed its position on Russia. The allies were left confused. "If America leaves us, we are screwed": In Bucha, the site of a massacre by Russia in 2022, Ukrainians are alarmed by Washington and Moscow's warming relations. In his first term, Trump frequently threatened to leave NATO. Now, he's trying to hollow it out from within, David Sanger writes. Government Overhaul The Trump administration is firing or reassigning F.B.I. and Homeland Security officials who combat foreign interference in U.S. elections. A federal judge allowed Trump's mass firings to proceed, rejecting a challenge by labor unions. The Trump administration fired about 6,700 IRS employees, including those focused on auditing and collections, raising concerns about the agency's ability to process tax returns. A division of Housing and Urban Development that helps rebuild homes after disasters is set to cut more than 80 percent of its staff. The C.I.A. plans to dismiss officers who worked on recruiting and diversity issues. It would be the agency's largest layoff in almost 50 years. Migration The Trump administration has cleared out all of the migrants it sent to Guantánamo. It is unclear whether additional migrants will be sent to the base. The U.S. deported other migrants, including dozens of children, by plane to Costa Rica. Trump signed an executive order to eliminate federal benefits for undocumented immigrants, but most of them are ineligible for such benefits already. More on the Trump Administration The Senate confirmed Kash Patel, a former prosecutor and a fierce Trump loyalist, to lead the F.B.I. The vote was 51 to 49, with two Republicans voting against his nomination. As Tesla's sales stagnate, Elon Musk, busy with a new job in Washington, seems to be doing little to turn the company around. News outlets, including The Times and Fox News, urged the White House to lift its ban of The Associated Press, which began after the A.P. said it would not adopt the name "Gulf of America." More than half of the major actions Trump has taken appear to violate laws or the Constitution, according to a Times analysis. Here's a look at all of them. More on Politics Gov. Kathy Hochul Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York said she would not remove Mayor Eric Adams from office. But she announced new rules to limit his power and increase oversight of his office. Senator Mitch McConnell, 83, will not seek re-election. His term ends in 2026. Trump hosted a Black History Month reception. He praised Black Americans while facing criticism for his attacks on diversity programs. International Luis Rubiales, the former president of the Spanish soccer federation. Thomas Coex/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A court convicted the former head of Spain's soccer federation of sexual assault. Luis Rubiales forcibly kissed a member of the woman's national team on the lips after it won the 2023 World Cup. Hamas returned the bodies of an elderly man and two young boys, but militants did not return the boys' mother, as they had promised. Instead, a coffin they sent contained an unidentified body, jeopardizing the cease-fire. Multiple bus explosions in Israel have put the country on a terror alert. Meet Germany's far right leader, Alice Weidel. She is anti-immigration and is married to a Sri Lankan-born woman. Other Big Stories Nearly one in 10 American adults identifies as L.G.B.T.Q., the survey firm Gallup found. The share has risen during the past decade as more young people identify as bisexual. New York's attorney general sued 13 vape companies, accusing them of marketing the devices to children and teenagers. A Texas man was sentenced to 12 years for kidnapping a ride-share driver at gunpoint and forcing him to drive to Florida in a foiled plot to kidnap a social media influencer. Opinions "We're in a cage — and we really need support": Times Opinion gathered testimonies from people around the world that have been impacted by the U.S.A.I.D. funding freeze. Tariffs shift the tax burden away from the rich and toward the poor and the middle class, Kimberly Clausing argues. Here is a column by John McWhorter on "woke." Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. 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More on culture "No Other Land," a documentary which chronicles a community facing home demolition and expulsion in the occupied West Bank, is nominated for an Oscar. U.S. studios are unwilling to distribute it. Stephen Colbert mocked Trump for calling himself a king. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Bake a German pancake in a 9-by-13-inch pan. Get the best results from your strength workout. Take a mirror pic that is actually good. Start a podcast with no money. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was foraging. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. 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