The Morning: Why Biden may matter

January 15, 2025

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We're covering Biden's legacy — as well as South Korea, Pete Hegseth and plays in Ukraine.

President Biden sitting at his desk in the Oval Office. The scene is reflected in the bottom half of the image.

In the Oval Office. Eric Lee/The New York Times

Still a turning point?

One-term presidents don't usually leave big legacies on domestic policy. If anything, political parties move away from the ideas of presidents who fail to win a second term. It was true of Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.

It will be true of President Biden in some ways, too. Democrats have already abandoned Biden's initial immigration policy, which contributed to a record surge at the southern border.

But one major part of Biden's agenda has a decent chance of surviving. It was the idea that animated much of the legislation he signed — namely, that the federal government should take a more active role in both assisting and regulating the private sector than it did for much of the previous half-century.

This idea has yet to acquire a simple name. The historian Gary Gerstle has called it the end of the neoliberal order. Felicia Wong and her colleagues at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank, have used the term "a new economics." Jake Sullivan, a top Biden adviser, has referred to it as a new consensus. I've described it as part of a new centrism.

The philosophy didn't originate with Biden, but he meaningfully shifted the country toward it, first as a candidate in 2020 and then as president. He moved the Democratic Party away from decades of support for trade liberalization and imposed tariffs on China. He pursued an industrial policy to build up sectors important to national security (like semiconductors) or future prosperity (like clean energy). And his administration was more aggressive about restraining corporate power than any in decades, blocking mergers, cracking down on "junk fees" and regulating drug prices.

When Biden delivers his farewell address from the Oval Office tonight, he will emphasize these issues.

Promises unmet

The rationale for this new approach was simple enough: The previous consensus — the neoliberal order, in Gerstle's terms — failed to deliver on its promises.

For most of the past 50 years, the federal government moved toward a more laissez-faire approach to the economy. Tariffs and tax rates plunged. Regulators allowed corporations to grow larger. Presidents of both parties supported these changes, to differing degrees, and argued that the inevitable march of globalization demanded them.

These same presidents often promised that the changes would bring more prosperity to American workers and more freedom to the rest of the world. "It didn't turn out that way," as Sullivan said in a 2023 speech explaining Biden's approach. Democracy has retreated, and China and Russia are more authoritarian. In the U.S., incomes for most families have grown frustratingly slowly. Many measures of well-being — including life satisfaction, loneliness, marriage and birthrates — look grim. The United States today has the lowest life expectancy of any high-income country.

A close-up of President Biden. His hands are clasped near his chin.

Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Biden failed to fix these problems, of course, and voters decided last year that they preferred Donald Trump's approach to them. Trump will surely undo major parts of the Biden agenda, especially on climate change and some aspects of corporate regulation.

In other ways, though, Trump is part of the shift away from neoliberalism. He romped through the 2016 Republican primaries partly because he was more hostile to trade, China and cuts to Medicare and Social Security than other Republican politicians. Some of Trump's second-term nominees, including for labor secretary and head of the Justice Department's antitrust division, are hardly small-government neoliberals. Neither is Vice President-elect JD Vance.

The policies vs. the man

One explanation is that most Americans have similar views on these issues. Polls show majority support for government action to reduce drug prices, regulate trade and prevent corporations from becoming too powerful.

That's also why the Biden shift on economic policy remains virtually a consensus within the Democratic Party. Moderate Democrats sometimes sound even more populist than progressives (as I described in a recent Morning). The disagreements between the party's center and left tend to involve other issues, such as immigration, gender, crime and foreign policy.

Politics is uncertain. There is obviously no guarantee that Biden's big economic ideas will survive. One question is whether his investments in new technologies succeed in creating thriving companies and good jobs over the next several years. Another question is how much success the more laissez-faire members of Trump's circle, like Elon Musk, have in shaping policy.

The best way for Biden and Kamala Harris to protect their legacy would have been to win the election. But it's possible that Biden's presidency will nonetheless be part of a turning point in American economic policy. Some of his big ideas remain more popular than Biden himself.

For more: In the final days of his presidency, Biden has issued a series of policy decisions on issues including environmental justice, immigration and prison reform.

THE LATEST NEWS

California Fires

Mexican firefighters. Max Whittaker for The New York Times

Firefighters in Southern California battled and extinguished new wildfires fueled by winds. The largest fires remain far from contained.
The winds yesterday were weaker than expected, but more strong winds in the forecast could stoke blazes.
A state insurance program designed to cover people without standard home insurance has less than $400 million available to pay claims. Losses are estimated in the billions.
"It's a loss of a culture": The Eaton fire displaced entire neighborhoods of a historically Black enclave in Altadena.
More Americans than ever are living in areas at risk of wildfires.

Confirmation Hearings

Pete Hegseth speaking into a microphone. He's wearing a blue suit and a red tie with thin blue stripes.

Pete Hegseth Kenny Holston/The New York Times

Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick for defense secretary, defended himself during a contentious Senate confirmation hearing against allegations of sexual assault and excessive drinking. Republicans appeared ready to confirm Hegseth. Read four takeaways.
Hegseth told senators that women would have ground combat roles, provided they adhered to "the same high standards" as men. He had said in the past that women did not belong in combat.
Senator Marco Rubio, Trump's secretary of state pick, is expected to appear at a hearing today. He is expected to be confirmed later this month.
Pam Bondi, Trump's choice for attorney general, has a solid reputation as a prosecutor. At today's hearing, she will be asked about her independence.

MORNING READS

Rehearsing a scene from a play, three teenagers sit at a small table while a woman playing a mother places plates in front of them.

In Kyiv. Oksana Parafeniuk for The New York Times

Ukraine: Despite the war, these teenagers found hope in a summer acting course.

Online therapy: Digital mental health platforms were supposed to expand access for the neediest patients. Researchers say that hasn't happened.

Letter of Recommendation: Fix your glutes. Fix your life.

Training: One writer on the magic of swimming lessons in middle age.

Lives Lived: For nearly five decades, Leslie Charleson played the role of Dr. Monica Quartermaine, a dedicated cardiologist and the matriarch of a wealthy family on the soap opera "General Hospital." Charleson died at 79.

SPORTS

Olympics: The I.O.C. will send replica medals to the swimmer Gary Hall Jr., who lost all 10 of his original medals in the Los Angeles fires.

Australian Open: No. 5 seed Zheng Qinwen lost in a second-round upset to Laura Siegemund.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Courtesy of William Morrow

Karen Wynn Fonstad was a novice cartographer who spent more than two years exhaustively mapping J.R.R. Tolkien's Middle-earth, the setting of "The Hobbit" and "The Lord of the Rings." The resulting book, published in 1981, impressed Tolkien fans and scholars with its exquisite level of topographic detail. Her work continues to inspire fantasy mapmakers.

More on culture

The author Neil Gaiman denied allegations of sexual abuse and assault made against him by multiple women.
People are laughing out loud more in movie theaters.
Seth Meyers joked about Trump's inauguration.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A serving of Hamburger Helper in a white bowl.

Ryan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Make homemade Hamburger Helper all in one pot.

Find a new book you can't put down.

Sleep on the perfect mattress.

Protect your hearing with earplugs.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was dalmatian.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

Editor's note: In yesterday's newsletter, there was a broken link on the article about a man charged with stalking Caitlin Clark. You can read the story here.

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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