The Morning: The largest immigration surge in U.S. history

Plus, Syria's prisons, the C.E.O. killing suspect and Saudi Arabia.

View in browser|nytimes.com December 11, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the scale of recent immigration — as well as Syria's prisons, the C.E.O. killing suspect and Saudi Arabia. In El Paso in 2022. Paul Ratje for The New York Times An unprecedented surge My colleagues and I worked with government officials and outside experts in recent weeks to analyze the magnitude of the recent immigration surge in the United States. We published the results of that analysis this morning. In today's newsletter, I'll give you seven highlights, with help from charts by Albert Sun, a graphics editor at The Times. 1. The immigration surge since 2021 has been the largest in U.S. history, surpassing even the levels of the late 1800s and early 1900s. Total net migration — the number of people coming to the country minus the number leaving — will likely exceed eight million people over the past four years, government statistics suggest. That number includes both legal and illegal immigration. Never before has annual net migration been close to two million for an extended period, according to data from the Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office. 2. Even after adjusting for today's larger population, the surge is slightly larger than that during the peak years of Ellis Island traffic, when millions of Europeans came to the United States. This chart tells that story: Source: Analysis of data from the Congressional Budget Office and U.S. Census Bureau 3. The share of the U.S. population born in another country has reached a record high as a result. That share hit 15.2 percent in the summer of 2023 (and continued rising over the past 18 months). The previous high of 14.8 percent occurred in 1890, and the share remained high for decades afterward. It began to decline after the passage of a tough immigration law in 1924. That restrictive era lasted until 1965, when a new law expanded immigration. (On a recent episode of "The Daily," Michael Barbaro and I told the story of that 1965 law and its unintended consequences.) Source: Analysis of data from the Congressional Budget Office and U.S. Census Bureau 4. President Biden's welcoming immigration policy has been the main reason for the recent surge. During his 2020 campaign, Biden encouraged more people to come to the U.S., and he loosened several policies after taking office. Biden administration officials sometimes argue that outside events, such as the turmoil in Haiti, Ukraine and Venezuela, have been the main cause of the surge, and those events did play a role. But the sharp decline of migration levels since this past summer — when Biden tightened the rules — indicates that the administration's policies were the biggest factor: Source: Department of Homeland Security 5. More than half of net migration since 2021 has been among people who entered the country illegally. Of the roughly eight million net migrants who came to the U.S. over the past four years, about five million — or 62 percent — were unauthorized, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs. 6. The unprecedented scale of recent immigration helps explain why the issue played such a big role in the 2024 election. Polls showed that the sharp rise in immigration was unpopular with most Americans, especially among working-class voters, some of whom complained of strained social services, crowded schools and increased homelessness. The issue appears to have been Kamala Harris's second biggest vulnerability, after only the economy. Donald Trump made striking gains near the border in Texas, winning six counties along the Rio Grande that he lost badly only eight years ago. And Democrats who outpaced Harris and won tough congressional races — in Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, New York and elsewhere — often criticized Biden's immigration policies. 7. The recent immigration surge has probably ended. Trump has promised to impose even tougher border rules next year than Biden recently imposed. Trump also campaigned on a plan to deport millions of immigrants who entered the country illegally. It remains unclear how far Trump will go and whether his plan will remain popular once he begins to implement it. Either way, the pace at which immigrants enter the U.S. has already fallen significantly from the peak levels of 2022 and 2023 and may continue to fall after Trump takes office. Historically, in both the U.S. and other countries, very high levels of immigration often cause a political backlash that leads to new restrictions. Our full story includes more details, including an explanation of why experts believe recent census numbers underestimate the size of the immigration surge. Related: Democratic governors are resisting parts of Trump's deportation agenda. But they're offering to help him enact stricter border control and deport people convicted of crimes. THE LATEST NEWS Syria At a Damascus prison morgue. Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times Syrians are searching prisons for disappeared family members. Some are finding their bodies. The rebels who overthrew Syria's Assad government vowed to punish officials implicated in torture, but promised an amnesty for rank-and-file soldiers. Israel destroyed Syria's navy, officials said. Israeli forces have bombed military sites and equipment across the country, to restrict the capabilities of whoever leads it next. A Times reporter toured Assad's mountaintop palace. Looters had been there first. C.E.O. Shooting Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare C.E.O., was remembered at a private funeral in his Minnesota hometown as a devoted father to his two sons. He was born to a working-class family and grew up in rural Iowa. Read about his life. A judge denied bail for Luigi Mangione, the man charged in the killing. Mangione shouted and struggled with the police as they led him into the hearing. The Mangiones are known as a force in Baltimore politics. Trump Administration Trump named Andrew Ferguson to lead the Federal Trade Commission, replacing Lina Khan. Ferguson supports cracking down on big tech companies but opposes regulating A.I. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wants to restrict high-fructose corn syrup, vegetable oils and processed foods. Doing so might hurt workers in Trump-friendly areas. Trump chose Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Fox host and his son Don Jr.'s fiancée, to be the U.S. ambassador to Greece. The announcement came after reports that Don Jr. was seen with another woman. Wall Street is thrilled about Trump's win, seeing it as a boon to business. Even bankers who opposed him, like Jamie Dimon, are celebrating. Trump made expansive campaign promises on immigration, spending and foreign policy. Many observers doubt he'll achieve his biggest goals, Peter Baker writes. More on Politics Judges blocked Kroger's effort to buy Albertsons, a rival grocery chain. The Biden administration had sued to stop the $25 billion merger, arguing that it would hurt shoppers. Biden, in a speech defending his economic policies, called himself stupid for not signing the Covid stimulus checks he sent to Americans, as Trump did. An aide said Biden was kidding. Mitch McConnell, the 82-year-old outgoing Senate Republican leader, tripped and fell, injuring his face and wrist. International In Kharkiv, Ukraine, in August. David Guttenfelder for The New York Times The Biden administration gave Ukraine a $20 billion loan, which interest on Russian frozen central bank assets will repay, to help support its economy after Trump becomes president. Benjamin Netanyahu testified for the first time in his trial on corruption charges that have divided Israel. The South Korean police raided the president's office as they investigate his failed declaration of martial law. Many container ships are sailing around the southern tip of Africa to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Almost 100 women in Kenya were murdered in the span of three months, prompting nationwide protests. Other Big Stories A fast-spreading California wildfire forced thousands of people to evacuate from Malibu and caused panic at Pepperdine University. A judge rejected the sale of Infowars, Alex Jones's conspiracy-theory website, to the satirical newspaper The Onion. A judge sentenced the owner of a telemarketing company that falsely claimed to help disabled veterans to 10 years in prison, and ordered him to pay an $8.9 million fine. Opinions The Supreme Court must intervene over the TikTok law, which is a threat to the First Amendment, Jameel Jaffer and Genevieve Lakier argue. Here are columns by Bret Stephens on Syria's opportunity and Thomas Edsall on Democrats' problems. The Times Sale starts now: Our best rate for readers of The Morning. Save now with our best offer on unlimited news and analysis as part of the complete Times experience: $1/week for your first year. MORNING READS In Burgos, Spain. Ana Maria Arevalo Gosen for The New York Times The Great Read: These nuns were excommunicated. But they won't leave their convents. Debilitating: Back pain is one of the most common health problems nationwide. Homes crisis: The U.S. has a major housing shortage. It may not improve next year. In New York: See our critics' favorite new restaurants of 2024 as well as their favorite dishes in the city. Lives Lived: Shuntaro Tanikawa was Japan's most popular poet for more than half a century — and the translator of the "Peanuts" comic strip. He died at 92. SPORTS Soccer: Saudi Arabia is expected to win the bid to host the men's 2034 World Cup today, and critics say the sport's governing body has rigged the vote for the Saudis. Read our investigation. M.L.B.: The New York Yankees agreed to an eight-year, $218 million contract with the pitcher Max Fried, making a splash just two days after Juan Soto left for the Mets. College basketball: AJ Dybantsa, the nation's No. 1 recruit, will play at B.Y.U. He is the highest-rated prospect in the program's history. ARTS AND IDEAS On set. Federico Rios for The New York Times Hollywood has long tried to adapt "One Hundred Years of Solitude," the 1967 novel that helped Gabriel García Márquez win the Nobel Prize. But he always refused, insisting that his novel, in which the real and fantastical converge, could never be rendered onscreen. That's changed. Netflix has made the book into a series, not a film, and used special effects to capture its magical realism. See behind the scenes. More on culture A decade after it was published, the book "Adult Children of Emotionally Immature Parents" is surging in popularity and making people rethink their family dynamic. China's biggest movie now is a feminist comedy that tackles social taboos. See how it got past censorship. Late night hosts joked about the suspect in the UnitedHealthcare killing. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Johnny Miller for The New York Times Add grapefruit and honey to a miso salmon bowl. Pick a cat litter that is good for the planet. Shop for the best deals at Sephora (almost everything is on sale). Get a better baking pan for the holidays. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was ineffective and infective. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018