The Morning: Trump’s tax plans

Plus, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Infowars and a Māori protest.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 15, 2024 Good morning. Today, my colleague Andrew Duehren explains Donald Trump's tax plans. We're also covering Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Infowars and a Māori protest. —David Leonhardt At the White House in 2017.  Jim Lo Scalzo/European Pressphoto Agency TRUMP'S AGENDA Three paths for taxes By Andrew Duehren I'm a reporter focused on tax policy, based in Washington. Nothing unifies Republicans like cutting taxes. Still, determining which taxes to cut — and how deeply to cut them — can be an ordeal. With Republicans on track for total control of Washington next year, they'll have to work through several contentious questions before they can pass another tax cut. The most important issue will be the cost of the legislation. Some Republicans worry about cutting taxes too much and blowing up the deficit. Others believe tax cuts juice the economy and are worth the consequences. Plenty of Republicans think Americans should keep more of the money they earn. In today's newsletter, I'll walk through three scenarios for how Republicans could approach cutting taxes next year. 1. The status quo In the Oval Office in 2017.  Doug Mills/The New York Times In 2017, President Donald Trump signed a major tax cut. To contain its cost, Republicans scheduled many of the provisions to expire after 2025, betting that a future Congress would continue them. That gamble looks as if it will pay off. Republicans generally agree that the law's biggest provisions — including lower income-tax rates, a larger standard deduction and lower taxes for many businesses — should not end next year. Even doing this much will be expensive. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that extending all of the expiring tax provisions will cost $4.6 trillion over a decade, including additional borrowing costs. The federal government is already expected to borrow roughly $22 trillion over that time frame, bringing the debt to a level many economists find alarming. Republicans have floated some spending cuts, like ending subsidies for clean-energy industries, to offset that cost. But savings from the proposed reductions would still fall short of covering the cost of continuing the 2017 tax law. Plus, many of the potential spending cuts are opposed by some Republicans. One scenario is that Republicans, struggling to agree to broader changes, simply extend the 2017 law and keep the tax code the way it is now. An extension might even expire in just a few years to hold down the price. 2. A few tweaks A Trump rally in California in October. Jordan Gale for The New York Times In his campaign, Trump proposed several new tax cuts. He said that tips and overtime pay shouldn't be taxed, for instance, and that domestic manufacturers should pay lower taxes. He also proposed reversing one of the few tax increases in the 2017 law, which limited deductions for state and local taxes — a provision that especially affected wealthy people in blue states. Congressional Republicans kept their distance from those ideas. If they embraced them now, it would add to the cost of the legislation. The exact design of these tax cuts will be important. By one definition of "tip," many Americans could reclassify their earnings to avoid taxes. Alternately, the provision could apply only to lower-income workers who now make much of their money in tips. Trump aides are looking for ways to limit the cost of these moves. One possibility is that Republicans pass limited versions of these ideas — like increasing, but not eliminating, the cap for the state and local deduction. Doing so would still raise the cost of the bill but by a smaller amount than broader interpretations of Trump's pledges. 3. An overhaul Then there's the possibility that Trump persuades Republicans in Congress to carry out the entire fiscal agenda he outlined during the campaign — and potentially take things even further. That could mean deeper tax cuts for corporations, as well as the end of President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which includes funding for both clean energy and the Internal Revenue Service. Perhaps the most significant change would be a tariff Trump has proposed for all imported goods. Republicans are discussing whether to pass such a tariff into law, though Trump could also likely enact it with executive authority. That tariff could help pay for the tax cuts, but they probably wouldn't raise enough to fully offset the cost. Passing a tariff into law would make it impossible for a future president to remove them without help from Congress. It would also mark a fundamental change in fiscal policy in the United States. American policymakers have not treated tariffs as a way to generate revenue for the federal government in almost a century. The bottom line A new tax cut is almost assured next year. Any additional economic growth created by lower taxes could help many Americans. But the biggest winners will likely be the rich, who pay more tax and therefore reap the biggest benefits from tax cuts. The losers could be the low-income Americans who face higher costs on everyday goods because of tariffs. Americans may also suffer in the future. They may have to pay higher taxes or collect smaller benefits from programs like Social Security to help fix the nation's fiscal problems. Today's newsletter is the second installment in a running series on the Trump agenda. The first included an annotated list of policies he's likely to change. THE LATEST NEWS Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.  Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times Trump picked Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy has spread conspiracy theories and falsehoods about vaccines causing autism. Kennedy, an environmental lawyer with no training in medicine or public health, would oversee the F.D.A., C.D.C., Medicare and Medicaid. He would also oversee the National Institutes of Health, which studies diseases. Kennedy has also been outspoken about the dangers of ultraprocessed foods. He has said that the government has been too aggressive in regulating raw milk, psychedelics, hydroxychloroquine and more. Late-night hosts joked about the pick. Representative Matt Gaetz Lawmakers from both parties want to see the House Ethics Committee report on Matt Gaetz, Trump's nominee for attorney general, over allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use. The Republican who leads the committee suggested that he would not release the report. Trump decided to nominate Gaetz while the two men flew from Washington to West Palm Beach this week. Gaetz's nomination rattled Justice Department and F.B.I. officials, whom Trump has vowed to punish. Steve Bannon, a Trump ally, urged Gaetz to prosecute MSNBC hosts, producers and guests if he's confirmed. More on Trump's Appointments Trump picked his defense lawyer to be the Justice Department's No. 2 official. Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota who ran for president this year, is Trump's pick to lead the Interior Department. Burgum, who is close to fossil fuel executives, will most likely help to open federal lands and waters to drilling. Two Republican senators — Joni Ernst of Iowa and Todd Young of Indiana — sounded skeptical about the nomination of Pete Hegseth, the Fox News host Trump picked to be his defense secretary. Senate Republicans are split on whether to recess the chamber to let Trump appoint officials without their votes, as he has requested. Trump picked Doug Collins, a former Georgia congressman, to be his secretary for veterans affairs. Collins defended Trump during his first impeachment. More on Politics Elon Musk met with Iran's ambassador to the U.N. They discussed how to defuse tensions between Iran and the U.S., officials said. A federal judge delayed the trial of a Kansas man accused of attacking the Capitol on Jan. 6 because Trump has vowed to pardon the rioters. Democracy Forward, a liberal legal group, is planning a flurry of lawsuits to thwart Trump's second-term agenda. Conservative influencers online are popular with Gen Z men. Democrats are struggling to compete. International In France.  Franck Fife/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A soccer game between France and Israel proceeded under heavy security after recent antisemitic attacks in Amsterdam. Māori lawmakers performed a haka, a traditional group dance, in the New Zealand Parliament. They were protesting a bill that aims to reinterpret a treaty with Indigenous people. ​Kim Jong-un wants to modernize North Korea's military with drones. Norway formally apologized for a system called "Norwegianization," which until the 1960s forcibly suppressed the language and culture of Indigenous people. Other Big Stories Nearly three-quarters of adults in the U.S. are overweight or obese, according to a sweeping new study. That number has increased steadily over the past three decades. The ice cream maker Ben & Jerry's accused Unilever, its parent company, of trying to stop it from expressing support for Palestinians. The Onion, a satirical publication, won a bid to buy Alex Jones's Infowars at a bankruptcy auction. If the sale goes through, The Onion plans to turn Infowars into a parody of itself. A Brooklyn man was charged with murdering his father in a luxury Irish hotel. Opinions All cases against Trump should be dismissed. If they're pursued, it could lay the groundwork for political prosecutions of presidents in the future, Thomas Goldstein writes. Trump's trajectory follows the early record of Hungary's Viktor Orban, who leveraged his coalition's grievances for his own benefit, M. Gessen writes. Here are columns by David Brooks on Democrats' identity politics problem, and Michelle Goldberg on what to expect from Gaetz. MORNING READS Michael Corcoran Cody O'Loughlin for The New York Times Today's Great Read: He's a 96-year-old auctioneer in Newport, R.I. Watch how fast he talks. Becoming wild: Chimpanzees trained in Hollywood are trying to learn to live with other apes at a Chicago zoo. Let it out: Do you get weepy often? Take this quiz to see what kind of crier you are. A Morning listen: "The Good Whale," a new podcast from Serial Productions, tells the true story of a movie-star orca's odyssey back to the ocean. Episodes 1 and 2 are out now. Modern Love: Even his parents were younger than I was. Lives Lived: Elizabeth Nunez was a Trinidad-born novelist who explored the queasy legacy of colonialism and the immigrant's search for belonging, but also poked fun at academia and the publishing world. She died at 80. SPORTS N.F.L.: Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders, 26-18. U.S.M.N.T: The American side overcame Jamaica, 1-0, in the first leg of a Nations League soccer quarterfinal. M.L.B.: The Tampa Bay Rays will play home games at George M. Steinbrenner field, spring training home of the New York Yankees, for the entire 2025 season. ARTS AND IDEAS Mike Tyson and Jake Paul.  Brett Carlsen/Getty Images for Netflix The most-watched program on Netflix this weekend could be a fight. Millions of people are expected to tune in for a boxing match between Jake Paul, a social media influencer, and Mike Tyson, a former heavyweight champion. Read more about the bizarre matchup. More on culture People magazine picked John Krasinski as its "sexiest man alive." Christian Marclay's 24-hour film "The Clock" — comprising thousands of clips that depict the precise time of day you are watching it — is running in New York for the first time in over a decade. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Rachel Vanni for The New York Times Roast squash in the oven until caramelized, and top with cinnamon toasted nuts. Try a deep tissue massager. Check early Black Friday deals. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was itemizing. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. David Leonhardt will be on assignment next week, and other Times journalists will be writing The Morning. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? 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