Good morning. Today, my colleague Andrew Duehren explains Donald Trump's tax plans. We're also covering Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Infowars and a Māori protest. —David Leonhardt
TRUMP'S AGENDA Three paths for taxes
Nothing unifies Republicans like cutting taxes. Still, determining which taxes to cut — and how deeply to cut them — can be an ordeal. With Republicans on track for total control of Washington next year, they'll have to work through several contentious questions before they can pass another tax cut. The most important issue will be the cost of the legislation. Some Republicans worry about cutting taxes too much and blowing up the deficit. Others believe tax cuts juice the economy and are worth the consequences. Plenty of Republicans think Americans should keep more of the money they earn. In today's newsletter, I'll walk through three scenarios for how Republicans could approach cutting taxes next year. 1. The status quo
In 2017, President Donald Trump signed a major tax cut. To contain its cost, Republicans scheduled many of the provisions to expire after 2025, betting that a future Congress would continue them. That gamble looks as if it will pay off. Republicans generally agree that the law's biggest provisions — including lower income-tax rates, a larger standard deduction and lower taxes for many businesses — should not end next year. Even doing this much will be expensive. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that extending all of the expiring tax provisions will cost $4.6 trillion over a decade, including additional borrowing costs. The federal government is already expected to borrow roughly $22 trillion over that time frame, bringing the debt to a level many economists find alarming. Republicans have floated some spending cuts, like ending subsidies for clean-energy industries, to offset that cost. But savings from the proposed reductions would still fall short of covering the cost of continuing the 2017 tax law. Plus, many of the potential spending cuts are opposed by some Republicans. One scenario is that Republicans, struggling to agree to broader changes, simply extend the 2017 law and keep the tax code the way it is now. An extension might even expire in just a few years to hold down the price. 2. A few tweaks
In his campaign, Trump proposed several new tax cuts. He said that tips and overtime pay shouldn't be taxed, for instance, and that domestic manufacturers should pay lower taxes. He also proposed reversing one of the few tax increases in the 2017 law, which limited deductions for state and local taxes — a provision that especially affected wealthy people in blue states. Congressional Republicans kept their distance from those ideas. If they embraced them now, it would add to the cost of the legislation. The exact design of these tax cuts will be important. By one definition of "tip," many Americans could reclassify their earnings to avoid taxes. Alternately, the provision could apply only to lower-income workers who now make much of their money in tips. Trump aides are looking for ways to limit the cost of these moves. One possibility is that Republicans pass limited versions of these ideas — like increasing, but not eliminating, the cap for the state and local deduction. Doing so would still raise the cost of the bill but by a smaller amount than broader interpretations of Trump's pledges. 3. An overhaulThen there's the possibility that Trump persuades Republicans in Congress to carry out the entire fiscal agenda he outlined during the campaign — and potentially take things even further. That could mean deeper tax cuts for corporations, as well as the end of President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which includes funding for both clean energy and the Internal Revenue Service. Perhaps the most significant change would be a tariff Trump has proposed for all imported goods. Republicans are discussing whether to pass such a tariff into law, though Trump could also likely enact it with executive authority. That tariff could help pay for the tax cuts, but they probably wouldn't raise enough to fully offset the cost. Passing a tariff into law would make it impossible for a future president to remove them without help from Congress. It would also mark a fundamental change in fiscal policy in the United States. American policymakers have not treated tariffs as a way to generate revenue for the federal government in almost a century. The bottom lineA new tax cut is almost assured next year. Any additional economic growth created by lower taxes could help many Americans. But the biggest winners will likely be the rich, who pay more tax and therefore reap the biggest benefits from tax cuts. The losers could be the low-income Americans who face higher costs on everyday goods because of tariffs. Americans may also suffer in the future. They may have to pay higher taxes or collect smaller benefits from programs like Social Security to help fix the nation's fiscal problems. Today's newsletter is the second installment in a running series on the Trump agenda. The first included an annotated list of policies he's likely to change.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Representative Matt Gaetz
More on Trump's Appointments
More on Politics
International
Other Big Stories
Opinions All cases against Trump should be dismissed. If they're pursued, it could lay the groundwork for political prosecutions of presidents in the future, Thomas Goldstein writes. Trump's trajectory follows the early record of Hungary's Viktor Orban, who leveraged his coalition's grievances for his own benefit, M. Gessen writes. Here are columns by David Brooks on Democrats' identity politics problem, and Michelle Goldberg on what to expect from Gaetz.
Today's Great Read: He's a 96-year-old auctioneer in Newport, R.I. Watch how fast he talks. Becoming wild: Chimpanzees trained in Hollywood are trying to learn to live with other apes at a Chicago zoo. Let it out: Do you get weepy often? Take this quiz to see what kind of crier you are. A Morning listen: "The Good Whale," a new podcast from Serial Productions, tells the true story of a movie-star orca's odyssey back to the ocean. Episodes 1 and 2 are out now. Modern Love: Even his parents were younger than I was. Lives Lived: Elizabeth Nunez was a Trinidad-born novelist who explored the queasy legacy of colonialism and the immigrant's search for belonging, but also poked fun at academia and the publishing world. She died at 80.
N.F.L.: Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders, 26-18. U.S.M.N.T: The American side overcame Jamaica, 1-0, in the first leg of a Nations League soccer quarterfinal. M.L.B.: The Tampa Bay Rays will play home games at George M. Steinbrenner field, spring training home of the New York Yankees, for the entire 2025 season.
The most-watched program on Netflix this weekend could be a fight. Millions of people are expected to tune in for a boxing match between Jake Paul, a social media influencer, and Mike Tyson, a former heavyweight champion. Read more about the bizarre matchup. More on culture
Roast squash in the oven until caramelized, and top with cinnamon toasted nuts. Check early Black Friday deals. Take our news quiz.
Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was itemizing. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. David Leonhardt will be on assignment next week, and other Times journalists will be writing The Morning. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
|
viernes, 15 de noviembre de 2024
The Morning: Trump’s tax plans
Suscribirse a:
Enviar comentarios (Atom)
ROPA Y COMPLEMENTOS ALIAZON
ROPA Y COMPLEMENTOS
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario