The Morning: How inflation shaped voting

Plus, tax cuts, abortion rights and Pompeii.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 8, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering inflation's role in Trump's win — as well as tax cuts, abortion rights and Pompeii. Voting in Kansas. Charlie Riedel/Associated Press The inflation election Why did Donald Trump defeat Kamala Harris? One answer was clear even before Election Day: Voters consistently said the economy was their top issue, driven primarily by concerns about inflation. And they trusted Trump more than Harris to handle it. "It's the economy, stupid" is an old cliché in American politics, and it often proves true. Still, Trump's achievement contained a mystery. On paper, the economy seems OK. Inflation is down recently. Wages are up. But anger persists. That's because higher prices cause a special kind of pain — one that lingers and, historically, leads voters to punish the people in charge. Tuesday was no exception. Today's newsletter explains why voters still blamed the Biden-Harris administration — and why America's leaders are far from alone in feeling the public's fury over inflation this year. Pocketbook pain Source: National Consumer Price Index statistics for each country | By The New York Times Why does inflation anger voters so much? Some economic problems, like high unemployment, affect only a minority of the population. But higher prices affect everyone. Inflation also taps into what psychologists call "loss aversion": People feel negatively about losses much more than they feel positively about gains. So although wages have kept up with inflation or surpassed it, people still feel more pained by sticker shock at the grocery store than elated by their gains. To make matters worse, consumers can't do much about inflation. They simply have to cut back their spending on certain things or work more hours to afford them. The sense of loss combined with a feeling of powerlessness leaves people furious. They expect their leaders to fix the problem. Inflation fell to normal levels over the past year, but high prices remain. Eggs still cost nearly triple what they did four years ago. When people imagine an ideal end to inflation, they think of prices returning to normal. That hasn't happened, and economists don't expect it will. When the polling firm Morning Consult surveyed U.S. voters about inflation, they were comparing prices with those from 2020. They blamed President Biden and Harris for the increases since then, fairly or not. "Americans were comparing this economy to one without inflation, whether or not that was a realistic option according to economists," said my colleague Ben Casselman, who covers the U.S. economy. "They weren't saying, 'Inflation is tough, but at least I have a job thanks to Biden.' They were saying, 'Of course I have a job, but now I have to deal with all this inflation thanks to Biden.'" At the same time, the solutions to inflation can make the problem feel worse in the short term. To stop price increases, central banks raised interest rates. That made loans, credit card payments and mortgages more expensive — another set of higher costs that consumers had to deal with. Global rage The same dynamic is haunting leaders all over the world. Over the past few years, voters have thrown out incumbents, on the left and the right, in Britain, France, the Netherlands, Argentina, Italy and Australia. The top political parties in South Africa, Japan and India also faced disappointing elections. Canada's and Germany's incumbents are in danger of losing their jobs next year. Source: Morning Consult | By The New York Times Higher prices are the central reason. In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prices spiked worldwide. There is some good news for world leaders: Most prices have stabilized as the shocks of the pandemic and Russia's war have subsided. If that trend continues, voters' anger will likely ease. There are already some signs of that growing optimism. The Federal Reserve, America's central bank, cut interest rates yesterday, signaling that inflation will continue falling. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which measures people's faith in the economy and their finances, has improved over the past year. The improvement, however, was too little and too late for Harris's presidential campaign. More on Trump's win Trump looks set to win the national popular vote, which would make him the first Republican presidential candidate to do so in 20 years. See the voting groups that swung to the right. Trump won votes from Arab Americans and conservative pro-Israel Jews, groups with very different views. House results Republicans are seven seats away from a House majority and appear to be poised to achieve that. Twenty-five races have not been called. Track the results. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a House Democrat who's criticized her party for condescending to working-class voters, won re-election in a red district. She spoke with The Times about how her party should change. California London Breed, San Francisco's first Black female mayor, lost to Daniel Lurie, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune who pledged to improve public safety and city services. Both are Democrats. Gov. Gavin Newsom called California's legislature back for a special session to pass protections for civil liberties, reproductive rights and climate action "in the face of an incoming Trump administration." The transition Susie Wiles and Donald Trump. Doug Mills/The New York Times Trump picked Susie Wiles, who helped to run his campaign, to be his White House chief of staff. She's the first woman to hold the role. Biden pledged a peaceful and orderly transfer of power, and urged Democrats not to give up. "A defeat does not mean we are defeated," he said at the White House. "The America of your dreams is calling for you to get back up." For the rest of Biden's presidency, he will focus on nominating judges, delivering hurricane aid and funding the government, White House officials said. Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump and said Trump acted "like a man" after he survived an assassination attempt. He also praised Trump's desire to improve ties with Russia. Jerome Powell, the Trump-appointed Federal Reserve chair whom Trump has frequently criticized, said he wouldn't resign even if Trump asked him to. Powell's term ends in 2026. Trump has proposed expensive tax cuts. His advisers are grappling with how feasible those are. During the campaign, Trump pledged to pardon people prosecuted for storming the Capitol on Jan. 6. Hours after Trump won, one convicted rioter told a judge that he expected to receive clemency. Other election news Abortion rights were more popular than Harris. In states like Arizona and Nevada, some voters split their tickets, supporting both abortion rights measures and Trump. After the election, a wave of racist text messages summoning Black people to report for slavery appeared on phones across the U.S. The F.B.I. is investigating. In 2016, shocked liberals reacted to Trump's victory by organizing. This time, there is more resignation. "My feed feels like a funeral," one woman said. THE LATEST NEWS International Attackers wounded at least 10 Israeli citizens in antisemitic violence tied to a soccer game between a Dutch and Israeli team in Amsterdam, officials said. The Chinese government approved a $1.4 trillion plan to revive the economy. Australia moved to ban children under 16 from social media. In Argentina, the authorities accused three people of crimes in connection with the death of Liam Payne, the former One Direction singer. Prince William spoke publicly for the first time about the emotional impact on him after his wife, Kate, Princess of Wales, and his father, King Charles, received cancer diagnoses. "It's probably been the hardest year in my life," William said. DNA from the remains of volcano victims at Pompeii revealed new details about the residents and their relationships. Other Big Stories A rhesus macaque. Kathleen Flynn/Reuters Forty-three monkeys escaped a research center in South Carolina. A search is underway. Firefighters struggled to battle a mountain fire near Los Angeles. More than 10,000 people were evacuated. Federal prosecutors accused the mayor of Jackson, Miss., and two other officials of bribery. They pleaded not guilty. A judge threatened Rudy Giuliani with contempt, which carries possible jail time, for failing to turn over property to pay two former election workers Giuliani defamed. Opinions If Trump's opponents focus their criticism only on Trump, they will alienate millions of Americans. They should focus on defending the vulnerable, David French writes. Democratic voters who follow every news update are arrogant in assuming everyone else does, too. That blind spot cost them the election, Frank Bruni argues. People who voted for both abortion rights and Trump may support some women's rights but not full gender equality, Jill Filipovic writes. MORNING READS Thomas Prior for The New York Times A giant puppet: The secret to happiness in Santa Fe, N.M.? The annual burning of a 50-foot effigy. Fields, not freezers: Some in Minnesota love the challenge of hunting turkeys — and the cooking that follows. Ultraprocessed foods: A scientific committee says there's not enough evidence to avoid them. Some experts disagree. Literary guide: Read your way through Shanghai. Lives Lived: Eikoh Hosoe was an avant-garde photographer who helped pioneer a new kind of art making in postwar Japan. His surreal, often erotically charged images explored life, death and the nuclear age. He died at 91. SPORTS Rachael Gunn at the Paris Olympics Chang W. Lee/The New York Times Olympics: The Australian breaker Rachael "Raygun" Gunn is retiring from competition, citing the "upsetting" backlash to her Olympic performance this summer. N.F.L.: The Baltimore Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals in a 35-34 thriller. ARTS AND IDEAS In Berlin. Christoph Soeder/DPA, via Associated Press If you haven't made plans for Thanksgiving yet, you could consider an unusual option: going abroad. November can be one of the most affordable months for foreign travel. And Thanksgiving week, when domestic flights skyrocket, is a golden window for last-minute international flights. Read more about the deals. More on culture Elwood Edwards, an announcer who voiced the email alert "You've got mail!" on AOL, died at 74. Late-night hosts joked about Biden's speech to the country. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Craig Lee for The New York Times Make a big pot of old-fashioned beef stew, one of our most-reviewed recipes. Wash your clothes by hand — even ones labeled "dry clean only." Buy a cheap gaming laptop. Shave with a better electric razor. Try a deep fryer. Print photos instantly. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was chateaux. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018