The Morning: When class trumps race

Plus, the Middle East, Russian disinformation in Africa and millennial spending habits.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 14, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering a Times poll of Black and Hispanic Americans — as well as the Middle East, Russian disinformation in Africa and millennial spending habits. Donald Trump supporters in the South Bronx, New York.  Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times A political misdiagnosis The Democratic Party has spent years hoping that demography would equal destiny. As the country became more racially diverse, Democrats imagined that they would become the majority party thanks to support from Asian, Black and Hispanic voters. The politics of America, according to this vision, would start to resemble the liberal politics of California. It's not working out that way. Instead, Americans of color have moved to the right over the past decade. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll offers detailed evidence. The poll reached almost 1,500 Black and Hispanic Americans, far more than most surveys do. (Our poll didn't focus on Asian voters, but they have shifted, too.) A key fact is that the rightward drift is concentrated among working-class voters, defined as those without a four-year college degree: By The New York Times | Sources: Catalist (2016 election) and New York Times/Siena College poll (Oct. 2024) I know that many Democrats find this pattern to be maddening. They wonder how voters of color could have moved right during the era of Donald Trump, a man with a long history of racism. But the chart above points to a partial explanation: For most Americans, race is a less significant political force than many progressives believe it is — and economic class is more significant. Most isn't enough The past four years have highlighted the ways that Democrats exaggerate the political importance of racial identity. Joe Biden, after all, promised to nominate the first Black female Supreme Court justice (which he did) and chose Kamala Harris as the first Black vice president — who has now succeeded him as the Democratic nominee. Yet Harris has less support from Black voters than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Biden also adopted the sort of welcoming immigration policies that Democrats have long believed Hispanic voters support. He loosened border rules early in his term, which helped millions of people enter the country. In spite of that change — or maybe partly because of it — Democrats have also lost Hispanic support. Harris is still winning most voters of color. But the Democratic Party typically needs landslide margins among these groups to win elections. Today, a significant share of them view the Democratic Party with deep skepticism — roughly one in five Black voters, two in five Hispanic voters and one in three Asian voters, polls suggest. Elite vibes Their skepticism is linked to class in two main ways. First, most working-class voters are frustrated with the economy, having experienced sluggish income growth for decades. (Black men have especially struggled, Charles Coleman Jr. wrote in a Times Opinion essay, and Black men have shifted right more than Black women.) The years just before the Covid pandemic — the end of Barack Obama's presidency and the first three years of Trump's — were a happy exception, when wages rose broadly. But the inflation during Biden's presidency further angered many people. In our poll, only 21 percent of Hispanic working-class voters said that Biden's policies helped them personally, compared with 38 percent who said Trump's policies did. More generally, many voters have come to see the Democratic Party as the party of the establishment. That may sound vague and vibesy, but it's real. Trump's disdain for the establishment appeals to dissatisfied voters of all races. As my colleague Nate Cohn points out, a sizable minority of Black and Hispanic voters think "people who are offended by Donald Trump take his words too seriously." In Washington, D.C.  Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times The Democrats' second big problem is that they have wrongly imagined voters of colors to be classic progressives. In reality, the most left-wing segment of the population is heavily white, the Pew Research Center has found. While white Democrats have become even more liberal in recent decades, many working-class voters of color remain moderate to conservative. These voters say crime is a major problem, for instance. They are uncomfortable with the speed of change on gender issues (which helps explain why Trump is running so many ads that mention high school trans athletes). On foreign policy, Black and Hispanic voters have isolationist instincts, with the Times poll showing that most believe the U.S. "should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home." Immigration may be the clearest example. Many voters of color are unhappy about the high immigration of the last few years. They worry about the impact on their communities and worry that new arrivals are unfairly skipping the line. In our poll, more than 40 percent of Black and Hispanic voters support "deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries." Support for a border wall was similar: By The New York Times | Source: New York Times/Siena College poll (Oct. 2024) Multiracial similarities The bad news for Democrats is that they adopted the wrong diagnosis of the American electorate. It is not divided neatly by race, in which people of color are overwhelmingly similar to one another and liberal. That misdiagnosis has been a gift to Republicans. The good news for Democrats is that some of their weaknesses — with white, Hispanic, Black and Asian voters alike — overlap. If the party can find a way to stem its losses with voters of color, it may also win back a slice of white working-class voters. Remember: Americans without a bachelor's degree still make up about 65 percent of U.S. adults. The share is even higher in swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Related: Democrats' challenges with Black and Hispanic voters have left the party more reliant on college-educated white voters and suburbanites, write my colleagues Jennifer Medina, Katie Glueck and Ruth Igielnik. More on the campaign The main union for Border Patrol agents endorsed Trump during a rally in Arizona. At the event, Trump pledged to hire 10,000 new agents and to ask Congress to give them all a 10 percent raise. Trump has endorsed violence and proposed using the government to attack his enemies. Many of his supporters assume it's an act, Shawn McCreesh writes. Abortion bans have led some longtime Republican women in Arizona to support Harris. See a video. The Harris campaign, in an attempt to cut into Trump's polling lead on the economy, has courted business leaders. Their feedback has subtly shaped her economic agenda. Over the weekend, Tim Walz returned to Minnesota to hunt pheasants and watch a high-school football game. His recent appearances are aimed at men, The Washington Post reports. THE LATEST NEWS Middle East In Deir al-Balah, central Gaza. Ramadan Abed/Reuters Fire engulfed a tent encampment at a hospital compound in central Gaza after an Israeli airstrike there. At least four people were killed, according to a Palestinian news agency. Israel said it was targeting Hamas militants at the hospital. A Hezbollah drone attack hit a military base in northern Israel, killing four soldiers. The Israeli military is investigating how the drone reached the base without warning. The U.S. is sending an advanced missile defense system to Israel, along with around 100 troops to operate it. Israel's army has regularly forced captured Palestinians to undertake life-threatening missions, including scouting Hamas tunnels, a Times investigation found. War in Ukraine Russia is counterattacking in its Kursk region, where Ukraine seized territory months ago, but soldiers and analysts say the Ukrainians are largely holding their ground. Most of Russia's seaborne oil exports are evading Western restrictions, a report found. In Ukraine, a new generation of comedians are trying to make people laugh — and raise money for the war effort. More International News In Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Guerchom Ndebo for The New York Times A pro-Russian disinformation operation is targeting U.S.-funded anti-malaria programs in Africa, part of an effort to spread mistrust of the West. China began military drills around Taiwan after accusing the island's president of promoting independence. Weather A mobile home park in Damascus, Va. Caitlin Ochs for The New York Times Hurricanes Helene and Milton have exposed the risks climate change poses to the millions of Americans who live in mobile homes. Meteorologists have reported facing increased harassment as disinformation spread about the hurricanes. During a visit to Florida, President Biden announced $612 million to improve the electric grid in areas affected by Helene and Milton. Other Big Stories The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their research on global inequality. NASA's first mission to Jupiter in over a decade is scheduled to launch today. It will study whether Europa, one of the planet's moons, is habitable. Fisher-Price has recalled more than two million "Snuga Swings" after five babies died while sleeping in them. Opinions The U.S. needs a national shield law to protect journalists from having to expose their sources to the government, The Times Editorial Board writes. Jean Guerrero froze her eggs so that she could enjoy her youth before meeting a partner. The expensive procedure should be available to all, she writes. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Harris and the Senate. Here's a column by David French on abortion in Florida. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS An incarcerated filmmaker.  Jim Wilson/The New York Times San Quentin: The California prison once housed violent criminals. It's now known for creative pursuits, including a film festival. Long Island: Billy Joel will sell the house he first saw while dredging oysters as a teenager. Dining: See a list of the 25 best restaurants in Portland, Ore. Health: How do food, sleep and exercise affect blood sugar? Read what to know. Metropolitan Diary: Next time, piña coladas. Lives Lived: Abdul Salaam was an unassuming but important member of the Jets' ferocious 1980s defensive line, known as the New York Sack Exchange. He died at 71. SPORTS M.L.B.: During their 9-0 blowout win against the Mets in Game 1 of the N.L.C.S., the Los Angeles Dodgers tied a major-league record: 33 consecutive innings without allowing a run. N.F.L.: The Cincinnati Bengals outlasted the New York Giants in a 17-7 win. The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow called the game ugly. W.N.B.A.: Breanna Stewart's 21 points led the Liberty to a 80-66 win in Game 2 of the finals, tying the series at 1-1. It was her defense, our columnist writes, that drove the win. ARTS AND IDEAS Goober, the hedgehog. Chloe Ellingson for The New York Times Millennials and Gen Z place a high value on happiness, which helps explain why they spend more money than older generations on hobbies and quirky purchases. Examples include paragliding lessons and a palm-sized hedgehog called Goober. More on culture Elizabeth Taylor in 1962. Keystone/Hulton Archive, via Getty Images Leopard print has an enduring popularity in women's fashion. A reader asks The Times's fashion critic: Will it ever go out of style? New York State is enticing Californian movie and TV productions with tax incentives. It saves money, but adds creative challenges. "Suffs," a Hillary Clinton-backed musical about women's suffrage, will close in January. It won two Tony Awards, but struggled to sell tickets. 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