The Morning: Who is voting for Harris?

Plus, Evan Gershkovich, Venezuela and Taylor Swift

View in browser|nytimes.com August 2, 2024 Good morning. We're covering Kamala Harris's path to electoral victory — as well as Evan Gershkovich, Venezuela and Taylor Swift. Kamala Harris Erin Schaff/The New York Times The Harris electorate By Nate Cohn Chief political analyst Kamala Harris inherited a Democratic coalition that was badly frayed. In polls, young, Black and Hispanic voters abandoned President Biden in droves. And for the first time in years, more Americans said they leaned Republican than Democratic. To win, the vice president will need to win back the deserters without alienating the anti-Trump moderates who put Democrats over the top in 2020. It won't be easy. Although it's still early, polls suggest she has already made some progress. But while she's running ahead of where Biden stood when he left the race, she's still short of hitting traditional Democratic benchmarks. Young, Black and Hispanic voters Democrats have long assumed overwhelming support from young, Black and Hispanic voters. For many strategists, the only question was whether these voters would vote, not whom they'd vote for. This year, though, enough of them lost faith to give Donald Trump the lead in national and battleground state polls. And it raised questions about why, exactly, Biden was so weak. Figures are based on two-party vote shares. The New York Times Already, recent polls signal that Harris is not so weak. It's too soon to tell how strong she really is among young and nonwhite voters. Some polls — like New York Times/Siena College polling last week — find her running far ahead of Biden, while others show little change. But either way, even her best tallies still fall short of typical Democratic margins over the last 15 years. She doesn't even fare as well as Biden did in 2020, and his performance among these groups was relatively weak for a Democratic presidential candidate. With the Harris campaign barely one week old, it would be a mistake to assume that her early gains will be her only gains. Her candidacy has already generated a lot of enthusiasm. But her ability to exceed Biden's last performance might depend on why, exactly, he was doing so poorly. Biden had so many problems that it's hard to say what was really behind the collapse in his support. Was it that young voters were more bothered by his appearance than older voters? Was it the rising cost of living and housing? Was it a new social media environment and fading memories of Trump's conduct? Was it an unmet desire for change? Or was it something bigger — the belated extension of Trump's breakthrough among white working-class voters to populist anti-establishment voters of all races? The Times/Siena data offered evidence to support all of these possibilities, but almost nothing to untangle their relative import. Depending on the exact answer, Harris might find additional gains easy, or stubbornly hard. Nicole Craine for The New York Times Older white moderates To win, Harris will also need to reassure older and white voters, especially those without college degrees. This group has been the source of Democratic successes in the Trump era. It was enough — in many congressional and presidential races — to overcome a decline in support among voters of color. Harris hasn't won over this group in polls since Biden's exit. In a way, it's not surprising that Harris — a 59-year-old Black and Asian American woman from California — polls worse among older, white working-class voters than an 81-year-old who describes himself as "middle class Joe" from Scranton. But there's a deeper challenge. Harris is not the kind of candidate Democrats have nominated to great success during the Trump era. She has a lengthy progressive record. In the 2020 primary, she embraced Medicare for all and opposed fracking, and she now has to defend the administration's record on the border. Will anti-Trump moderate and conservative voters come around to this kind of candidate? That simply hasn't been tested. So far, the Harris campaign seems to understand its task: reassure these people while focusing them on Trump's liabilities. She's backed away from her earlier positions on fracking, the border and Medicare for all. Her emphasis on her experience as a prosecutor might work. Her vice-presidential selection could help, too. On the other hand, reassuring classic swing voters risks a possible trade-off with re-energizing young, Black and Hispanic voters. When Democrats could take young, nonwhite and progressive voters for granted, it was much easier to run to the center. Now, Harris will have to pull off a delicate balancing act. That's the challenge when coalitions fray. More on the election At an event for a Black sorority, Harris condemned Trump's remarks about her racial identity. But she also made it clear she would not engage in a debate with a white man critiquing her Blackness. Trump continued to raise false questions about Harris's racial identity, and some Republicans worried he was driving his campaign in a more divisive direction. Trump's comments this week about Harris's ethnicity recall an ugly history in which white America sought to define racial categories and who could belong to them, write Lisa Lerer and Maya King. Harris began the final phase of an accelerated search for a running mate. See who she is considering. THE LATEST NEWS Russian Prisoner Swap Evan Gershkovich Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter convicted on dubious espionage charges in Russia, was freed as part of a seven-country prisoner exchange. See a video of him arriving in the U.S. Russia released 16 prisoners, including Paul Whelan, a U.S. Marine held since 2018, and several pro-democracy activists. Western countries returned eight prisoners to Russia, including a convicted assassin and several spies. Here's a look at all 24 prisoners in the exchange. The negotiations that led to the prisoner swap included secret messages and diplomacy. Read how it happened. As part of his release, Gershkovich wrote a required letter to Vladimir Putin. He added his own twist: requesting that Putin sit for an interview with him, The Journal reported. International In northern Tehran. Provided to The New York Times Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed by a bomb that operatives had planted in his guesthouse months earlier, according to Iranian and U.S. officials. The United States recognized Venezuela's opposition presidential candidate, Edmundo González, as the winner of the country's disputed election. Turkey passed a law that requires municipalities to shelter the country's millions of stray dogs. The legislation allows them to euthanize dogs that are aggressive or ill. Politics A local officer spotted the gunman who shot Trump half a minute before the attack and called "long gun!" into his radio. But Secret Service agents never heard him because of flaws with their technology. The Senate rejected a bill that would have restored tax breaks for businesses and expanded the child tax credit. Other Big Stories Sarah Kate Ellis, the chief executive of GLAAD. Illustration by Mel Haasch; Photographs by Nathan Bajar for The New York Times, Clara Tuma for The New York Times GLAAD, a major American L.G.B.T.Q. advocacy group, spent lavishly on travel and executive pay, possibly in violation of I.R.S. regulations, a Times investigation found. The Transportation Department proposed a rule that would require airlines to allow families to sit together on flights without paying extra fees. The day before a police officer shot and killed Sonya Massey, her mother made a 911 call and reported that her daughter was having mental health issues. She asked that officers not hurt her. The head of an elite New York school resigned after turmoil over the war in Gaza. It shows how contentious the issue has become among parents and faculty. Opinions When Belle Boggs needed a bat out of her house and rabies tests for her family, she used public services. Lives are at risk if Project 2025 takes away those services, she writes. The far right is misconstruing "Lord of the Rings." We need to read it correctly, David French writes. Here are columns by Thomas Friedman on Iran and Israel, and Paul Krugman on the politics of cryptocurrency. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS In Gouda, the Netherlands. Ilvy Njiokiktjien for The New York Times Climate change: The small Dutch city of Gouda is sinking. Its cheese industry might not survive. New life: A ranger spotted tiny sprouts at the stump of the fallen Sycamore Gap tree in Britain. Deepfakes: Trolls used a rising political star's face to make fake porn. There was nothing she could do. How did roses get their thorns? A new study sheds some light. Lives Lived: Randy Kehler's opposition to the Vietnam War moved Daniel Ellsberg to leak the Pentagon Papers, a set of top-secret documents whose exposure changed the course of the war. Kehler died at 80. SPORTS Sunisa Lee of the U.S., Rebeca Andrade of Brazil and Simone Biles of the U.S. Graphic and composite image by The New York Times Gymnastics: Simone Biles soared to her second Olympic all-around gold medal. These photos of her midair explain how she won. A return: Suni Lee, the defending gold medalist, earned a bronze to complete an improbable comeback. Swimming: Katie Ledecky became the most decorated woman in American Olympic history with her 13th medal, this one a silver in the 4x200 freestyle relay. Basketball: The U.S. women's team passed its biggest test of the group stage with a win over Belgium. Read a recap. Tennis: The career of the British great Andy Murray ended yesterday with a loss to an American pair in men's doubles. Here's what he meant to the sport. Fractures and surgeries: Read how the Olympics break athletes' bodies. Changing formats: NBC is trying to provide wall-to-wall coverage of the Paris Games. On your phone. ARTS AND IDEAS In London. Toby Melville/Reuters Costumes and memorabilia from Taylor Swift's personal archive are on display at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London. The curators have scattered some of her most famous items — like the gown from the back cover of her album "Speak Now" — in displays throughout the museum, with music piped in that corresponds to the items nearby. More on culture James Baldwin Bettmann/Getty Images From Harlem to Selma to Paris: Today would have been James Baldwin's 100th birthday. See his life in pictures. The actor Adam Driver, known for "Girls" and "Star Wars," will return to Broadway in a revival of Kenneth Lonergan's "Hold On to Me Darling." Carrie Underwood will take Katy Perry's "American Idol" judge's seat, The Hollywood Reporter writes. Britney Spears is getting a biopic, The Cut reports. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Linda Xiao for The New York Times Use ripe summer tomatoes to make this classic sandwich. Listen to a summer Olympic playlist. Try a lazy workout. Swim with prescription goggles. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were flipflopping and flopping. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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