The Morning: Affirmative action news is coming

Plus, Kamala Harris's sit-down interview, a Namibian drought and a life review.

View in browser|nytimes.com August 30, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering college admissions after the Supreme Court's decision — as well as Harris's CNN interview, a drought in Namibia and a life review. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Eros Hoagland/Getty Images What will colleges report? The Supreme Court's affirmative action ruling last year upended admissions at selective colleges. Because they could no longer consider race, admissions officers — with oversight from their lawyers — had to overhaul their processes. In coming weeks, we will learn about the results. With students back on campus, more colleges will report the racial makeup of their freshman classes. The colleges already have the data; they just haven't yet announced it (with the exception of M.I.T.). I've spoken frequently with university administrators about this subject in recent months. Today, I'll offer a preview of the post-affirmative action landscape, organized around four points. 1. Variation is likely Because M.I.T. reported its results first and experienced a sharp drop in Black and Latino students, it may be natural to assume that M.I.T. will be the norm. I'm not sure it will be, though. M.I.T. isn't a typical elite college. It focuses on STEM — science, technology, engineering and math — an area where Black and Latino underrepresentation is stark. M.I.T.'s recent announcement also contained a statistical anomaly that may have exaggerated the decline in Black and Latino students (as I explain below). As more colleges report data, people inside higher education expect a wide variety of outcomes. Some colleges will probably have big declines. Others may have only modest changes. 2. Diversity isn't cheating Many conservatives are worried that colleges will cheat by continuing to consider race. Admissions decisions, after all, are subjective, and colleges often know an applicant's race even though there is no longer a box to check. An article in The Atlantic last year even urged universities to defy the Supreme Court. But it would be a mistake to conclude that any college that maintains high diversity levels has broken the law. The court's decision explicitly allows colleges to weigh the effects of race. "Nothing in this opinion should be construed as prohibiting universities from considering an applicant's discussion of how race affected his or her life, be it through discrimination, inspiration or otherwise," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote. The key, Roberts added, was that the student "must be treated based on his or her experiences as an individual." Remember, there are huge racial gaps in the U.S. — in health, wealth, school resources, incarceration and more. Any college that truly accounted for socioeconomic disadvantage, as more now promise to do, would end up giving credit for overcoming adversity to many underrepresented minorities. That wouldn't be breaking the law; it would be following Roberts's orders. Of course, it's plausible that some colleges did cheat and secretly gave extra credit for race itself. The distinction is likely to be the subject of future lawsuits. 3. Class isn't race There was a detail in the numbers M.I.T. released last week that might seem surprising: Even as Black and Latino representation in this year's entering class fell sharply, the number of lower-income students rose modestly. About one quarter of M.I.T.'s first-year students come from the bottom half of the U.S. income distribution. Together, this data suggests that the Supreme Court's decision may have most hurt upper-income Black and Latino applicants at M.I.T. — and most benefited lower-income Asian applicants. (The number of Asian students rose significantly.) I'll leave it to others to argue about whether this combination is good, bad or some of each. It's certainly complicated. 4. The 120% anomaly M.I.T., like many colleges, allows students to identify as having more than one race. As a result, its racial categories add up to more than 100 percent; any mixed-race student — both Black and Asian, say — counts in both categories. Still, there was a strange pattern in M.I.T.'s data. The number of mixed-race freshmen this fall plunged compared with previous years, as you can see from these numbers: Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Note: International students are excluded from all other groups. Native includes Pacific Islanders. | By The New York Times How could this be? There are two leading possibilities. First, a disproportionate number of the upper-income minority students whom M.I.T. didn't admit this year may have been multiracial. Mixed-race families are increasingly common in well-off high schools. When these students were admitted in the past, they were counted twice in the data. And each one who no longer enrolls looks like two students in the data. Second, the timing of M.I.T.'s data collection changed this year in a notable way. In the past, M.I.T. asked students to list their race when applying. This year, it asked about race only after students decided to enroll. It's possible, then, that students who had a real claim on being a minority but didn't identify strongly with that group — a white student with one parent from Argentina, say, or a multiracial student with some African heritage — might have been less likely to identify as Black or Latino this year than last year, when race-based affirmative action existed. The numbers suggest that this anomaly might explain fully half the decline in underrepresented minorities. Regardless, the Black and Latino shares fell significantly, but the drop was probably smaller than the top-line data suggests. The bottom line If the overall number of Black and Latino students at selective colleges plummets this year, it will be cause for consternation. It would aggravate racial inequality because these colleges provide big economic benefits and have an outsize role in shaping the American elite. For now, the full picture remains uncertain. As we get more information, I'll update you. THE LATEST NEWS The Harris Interview Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. CNN Kamala Harris, in her first major TV interview since becoming the Democratic nominee, defended President Biden's record. She touted the administration's efforts to boost manufacturing and lower prescription drug costs. Harris offered few specifics for her own policies or Day 1 plans, but she spoke generally about seeking to strengthen the middle class. See a video of the interview from CNN. She said she had no regrets about defending Biden's competency for the job and evaded questions about her race and gender. Read more takeaways. Tim Walz, who sat alongside Harris through the interview, spoke proudly of the viral moment with his son, Gus, during the convention. But he did not engage on questions about Republican attacks on his military record. 2024 Election The Harris campaign has benefited from a surge of interest from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. Some of those donors are now pressing her to drop her support for a tax on the ultrawealthy. After firefighters in Boston booed when JD Vance mentioned Donald Trump, Vance joked: "Once upon a time I was not a Trump guy either. Trust me, the president never lets me forget it." Trump's reposts of racially and sexually charged insults of Harris have some people asking: Will he alienate the voters he needs? 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The founder of Backpage, a website that promoted ads for prostitution, received a five-year sentence in a case that shut down the website. Opinions Want to empower American workers? Restrictions on both immigration and outsourcing are the best way to do so — better even than labor unions, Oren Cass argues. Trump should be scared — very scared — of debating Harris, Frank Bruni writes. Here are columns by Paul Krugman on cryptocurrency in campaign finance and John McWhorter on Harris, "joy" and race. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Robert Garrison holding a photo of himself and his son, Robert.  Grant Hindsley for The New York Times Homelessness: He was determined to rescue his son from the streets. The journey was more difficult that he had imagined. Health: How does mpox spread, and who is most at risk? 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ARTS AND IDEAS Sonia Pulido "Life reviews" — which help people systematically review their past — have been popular for decades, mostly among those at the end of their lives. Now, younger people are doing them, too. Researchers have found they help people transition between life phases, appreciate where they are and decide where they want to go. Read more about how do to a life review. More on culture Angelina Jolie Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters A biopic about Maria Callas, the opera singer, could be Angelina Jolie's Oscar comeback. It's getting rave reviews at the Venice Film Festival. In a new memoir, "Never Saw Me Coming," Tanya Smith recounts her youth as a prodigy scam artist. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Slice peaches (or any fruit) for this upside-down cake. Brave these new horror novels. Repel mosquitoes. Find relief with a good foam roller. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was hawthorn. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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