Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. August 2, 2024 |
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Fareed: Trump's Tariffs Would Make Things Worse |
Business leaders seem to think former President Donald Trump has no particular ideology, that his combative trade stances—including promises of a 10% across-the-board import tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods—are "all bluster, that Trump's bark is always worse than his bite," Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column.
"But Trump does have an ideological core, and it's one that dates back a long way," Fareed writes. "In 1987, when Trump was merely a New York developer, he spent almost $100,000 to take out a full-page ad in the New York Times. It was an open letter 'To The American People,' and its basic message should by now be familiar." Trump posited that other countries, including US allies, were taking advantage of America. His recommendation: "tax" these countries with tariffs.
Tariffs make imported goods more expensive. Critics have pointed out that they ultimately tax US consumers, who pay higher prices. "A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that Trump's new tariffs would cost American consumers $500 billion annually, or around $1,700 for a typical middle-income family every year," Fareed notes. "In other words, they would stoke inflation."
American history offers a simple retort to Trump's suggestion that tariffs punish other countries instead of US consumers, Fareed writes: "It's worth pointing out that if that were the case—if Trump is right—then the American Revolution was a big mistake. Recall that the colonists were enraged by tariffs the British imposed on imported goods. If only the colonists had known they were not paying those taxes, they might not have rebelled against British rule. But no: Even with 18th-century economics, they knew that they were paying the taxes." |
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The US received bad economic news today: The latest official employment report showed 114,000 jobs added in July, with the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3%. That contradicts the broad trends of the Biden economy: a post-Covid-19 rebound featuring strong employment, with inflation looming as the biggest problem.
How will America's economy evolve under its next president? Trump leaned heavily into tariffs and tax cuts. President Joe Biden has upheld much of Trump's protectionism while offering Covid-19 support and making massive investments in infrastructure and technology. Analysts are beginning to ask and answer how Vice President Kamala Harris might steer the US economy, if elected.
At The New Yorker, John Cassidy writes that Harris will likely continue the main thrust of Biden's economic policies: "A President Harris would probably prioritize enacting elements of Biden's Build Back Better agenda that failed to make it through Congress in 2021 and 2022, such as paid medical leave and universal pre-kindergarten. Speaking to campaign workers last week, she said, "We believe in a future where no child has to grow up in poverty . . . and where every person has access to paid family leave and affordable child care." In policy circles, many of these proposals fall under the rubric of "the care economy"—a term likely to be repeated many times in the coming months."
Others wonder about Harris' stances toward regulation and Silicon Valley. In an interview with Foreign Policy's Cameron Abadi, economics commentator Adam Tooze suggests that "Harris belongs on the mainstream, relatively pro-business, pro-Silicon Valley side of the [Biden] administration at this point." At the Financial Times, columnist Rana Foroohar notes Democratic megadonor and tech investor Reid Hoffman's feud with Biden's Federal Trade Commission chair, Lina Khan, who has prioritized blocking mergers for antitrust reasons. When judging Harris as a friend or foe of Silicon Valley and big business, Foroohar writes, it will be worth tracking her positions on Khan and "the bipartisan realignment around antitrust policy." |
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More on the Prisoner Swap: Boon to Biden and a Wartime Analogy |
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Not What Israel Needs Right Now |
Just as Israel escalates Middle East tensions by assassinating foes, Washington Post columnist Max Boot writes, it faces a serious scandal in allegations of detainee abuse. As The Times of Israel's Emanuel Fabian reports, a military court has extended the arrests of eight Israeli reserve soldiers on suspicion of sexually assaulting a Palestinian detainee in a detention center in southern Israel. Far-right Israeli lawmakers and protesters this week breached the perimeter of the base where the assault allegedly took place; others broke into the central-Israeli base where several of the accused soldiers were being questioned.
The Post's Boot writes that this episode harkens back to post-9/11 controversies over Guantanamo Bay detentions and the Abu Ghraib US-prison scandal during the Iraq War, which damaged America's image. Boot concludes: "Today, the cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment of Palestinian detainees allegedly committed by Israeli guards is doing grave damage to Israel's standing in the world and to its internal cohesion at the worst possible time: while it is engulfed in a seemingly never-ending and rapidly expanding conflict. The only winners will be Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists—and their terror-masters in Tehran." |
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As new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer campaigned to an electoral romp over the Tories this summer, his Labour Party tacked away from its Remainer identity. Brexit may no longer be popular, but in defeating the party that implemented it, Starmer's Labour chose to let the issue drop.
Still, some wonder if the UK's relationship with the EU will improve under Labour's leadership. The Financial Times' Peter Foster and Andy Bounds reported yesterday that the EU has released a list of demands necessary to improve things: "The tough stance from the commission includes requests to fully implement elements of the existing Brexit agreements on Northern Ireland and the rights of EU citizens living in Britain, which EU diplomats described as a 'test of good faith' in the new relationship."
At The Spectator, political editor Katy Balls writes that Starmer has already struck up a friendship with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and is poised to work well with European leaders and policy hands. Starmer may not pursue a reentry into the EU but will likely work around the margins in an attempt "to soften Brexit significantly," Balls writes. "In his first few weeks on the world stage, Starmer has made a good impression. In Brussels, he is viewed as 'workman-like and not playing to the gallery'. EU chiefs see a leader with whom they can work. However, a lot of the European focus is elsewhere—with the potential return of Donald Trump, the challenges of migration and EU competitiveness in the globalised economy. In the words of one blunt EU figure: 'No one here is talking about Brexit.' Starmer may discover, as David Cameron did, that when it comes to Europe, warm relations only get you so far." |
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