The Morning: The new race

Plus, drug cartels, arson in France and "underconsumption core."

View in browser|nytimes.com July 26, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're making three points about the Harris-Trump race — and also covering drug cartels, arson in France and "underconsumption core." Donald Trump in Michigan. Doug Mills/The New York Times The coming campaign With 101 days until Election Day, I want to use today's newsletter to frame the coming campaign. No doubt, more surprises lie ahead. But there is now enough stability — and enough polling since President Biden's exit — to make three points about the race. 1. Trump's lead Donald Trump has led the 2024 race all year, and he leads Kamala Harris today. In The Times's national polling average, Trump is ahead of Harris by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. That's narrower than Trump's recent lead over Biden, but similar to Trump's lead over Biden before last month's debate, as my colleague Nate Cohn points out. The race has in some ways reset to where it was. There are also a couple of important differences. Harris is a far stronger campaigner than Biden. She's a fiery, skilled speaker who can describe her own agenda and make the case against Trump in ways that Biden could not. She has more potential to make gains than Biden did. That said, polls point to a potential weakness, too: Harris appears to be a worse fit with the Electoral College than Biden. She is stronger among younger voters and voters of color but weaker with older voters and white working-class voters. Because swing states are disproportionately old, white and working class, Harris is likelier to win the popular vote and lose the election than Biden was. Think of it this way: It's a bad trade for a Democrat to win more votes in California and fewer in Pennsylvania. As a result, Trump's narrow national lead is probably a bit stronger than it looks. 2. Trump's focus Trump doesn't seem to be focused on swing voters. His speech at the Republican convention started effectively, political analysts thought. He told the story of having almost been murdered five days earlier. He thanked Secret Service agents and honored Corey Comperatore, the former fire chief killed that day. It was a version of Trump that he rarely projects. Then he returned to the more familiar version — the one that Trump's fans adore and that most Americans don't. He focused on himself. He lashed out. He lied. He rambled through the longest convention acceptance speech on record. "You read a lot of stuff about what this guy says, but to actually sit down and hear it and sit through it, it was just insane to me," Arnel Ramos, 21, a food service worker in Milwaukee who is an undecided voter, told The Times. "It made me uncomfortable," she said. In the days since the convention, Trump has kept it up. Republicans are nervous he is squandering a chance to win over Americans who are open to supporting him. These voters liked the pre-Covid Trump economy, and they don't like that inflation and immigration surged under Biden. "The 2024 election is Donald Trump's to lose, and he may yet manage it," The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote. 3. Harris's focus So far, Harris doesn't seem focused on swing voters, either. Like Biden before her, Harris has organized her initial campaign message around Trump. She emphasizes that she was a prosecutor, and that he is a convict. At a Wisconsin rally this week, she offered a contrast between "freedom, compassion and rule of law" and "chaos, fear and hate." In an ad released yesterday, called "We Choose Freedom," she shows Trump's mug shot and headlines about his conviction. She is echoing Biden's argument that the future of democracy is at stake. But polls have repeatedly shown that this message resonates more with committed Democrats than swing voters. Swing voters care more about pocketbook issues. Blueprint, a Democratic polling group, tested 15 potential Harris messages. The one that voters liked best began, "Vice President Harris understands the struggles of working families." It went on to say that she would be tough on corporate price gouging and that she supported an "all of the above" energy policy to lower gas prices. The worst-performing message began, "Vice President Harris is a champion of American democracy." A Times/Siena College poll found a similar pattern. Look at the differences between the issues that matter most to Democrats and to undecided voters: Note: Chart shows all answers that at least 5 percent of registered voters gave. Poll was conducted before President Biden dropped out. | Source: Times/Siena Poll, July 2024 | By The New York Times Abortion's low rank in the poll is also notable. Harris has signaled that she will try to increase the issue's salience, and that approach could win over some swing voters. But it may not be as easy as Democrats hope. In the 2022 midterms, after Roe fell, not a single incumbent Republican governor or senator lost re-election. Other evidence also points to the primacy of economic issues. There are seven battleground Senate races this year — in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and elsewhere — where the Democratic candidates have been running ahead of Biden. All seven are offering populist messages focused on pocketbook issues. None talk much about democracy. To see the difference yourself, you can watch their ads here. Harris talks about economic issues, to be sure. (Speaking to a teachers' union yesterday, she accused Trump of favoring trickle-down economics and union busting.) But these issues remain secondary. I'll be curious to see whether she can make the freedom-versus-chaos argument more effectively than Biden did — or whether she starts sounding more like those Senate candidates. She will have an opportunity that Trump does not. Her convention, and the attention that comes with it, is still ahead. It starts Aug. 19. A programming note: I won't be writing this newsletter frequently between now and the convention. You'll be in good hands with my colleagues. More on the election Barack Obama endorsed Harris. Harris narrowed the gap against Trump to one point in a head-to-head matchup, the latest Times/Siena College poll found. Earlier this month, Biden trailed by six points. Read more poll analysis. Now facing Harris, Trump changed his commitment to a debate in September. Americans may not agree on much, but they agree Biden made the right decision to withdraw. There is high consensus in polling. Usha Vance, JD Vance's wife, is an accomplished, Yale-educated lawyer who has left her job to become a high-profile political spouse. Read more about her. The next president is poised to inherit a strong economy, low inflation and lower interest rates. G.D.P. grew faster than expected this spring. THE LATEST NEWS Trump Shooting A Times analysis suggests it was a bullet that hit Trump during his attempted assassination, not debris. People have speculated about what hit him because his campaign has not released official medical reports, and his current physician has not weighed in. Drug Cartels The U.S. arrested two of the world's most wanted drug traffickers and accused them of being responsible for the growing presence of fentanyl in the country. They were leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel, one of the dominant criminal organizations in Mexico. One was the son of El Chapo. Read more about the cartel. Arson in France Arson disrupted service on three of France's four main high-speed train lines, the national railway company said. The attacks caused travel chaos on the day of the Olympics' opening ceremony. Many trains were canceled, and delays are expected into the weekend. Politics A homeless encampment in Oakland, Calif. Godofredo A. Vásquez/Associated Press Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered California officials to dismantle homeless encampments. The Supreme Court recently gave governments greater authority to do so. The Senate advanced bipartisan legislation to strengthen privacy protections for minors online. Justice Elena Kagan called for a way to enforce the Supreme Court's ethics code, The Washington Post reported. Jennifer Wexton, a House Democrat who has a neurological disorder, spoke about disability rights using an A.I. device that mimics her voice. Israel-Hamas War Biden welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House and met with relatives of Hamas-held hostages. Harris, after meeting with Netanyahu, expressed support for Israel but said she would "not be silent" about Palestinians' plight. "We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering," she said. Earlier yesterday, Harris criticized pro-Palestinian protesters who burned flags and committed vandalism during Netanyahu's speech to Congress, calling their actions unpatriotic, pro-Hamas and abhorrent. Trump said Israel must end the war quickly, saying it was "getting decimated" by negative publicity. He's set to meet with Netanyahu today. The Israeli military said it had retrieved the bodies of five Israelis held in Gaza from a tunnel in an area it previously designated as a humanitarian zone for Palestinian civilians. Martin Indyk, who served as Bill Clinton's ambassador to Israel and worked with the Biden administration to try to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, died at 73. International Refugees from Darfur arrive in Adre, Chad. Ivor Prickett for The New York Times Sudan is at risk of famine, but the military has refused to let U.N. aid convoys through a border crossing. The Russian defense minister called the U.S. defense secretary to claim that Ukraine was plotting an attack on Russia with America's blessing. The U.S. denied it. A U.S. grand jury charged a North Korean man with hacking into American military computers to steal data. Other Big Stories The Park fire in Northern California became the state's largest so far this year. Wildfire smoke from the West reached the Northeast, lowering air quality. New York City is cracking down on landlords who are behind on water bills. One family with medical conditions got a bill for $58,000. Southwest Airlines will end its 50-year policy of letting passengers choose their seats when they board. Opinions Venezuela's president needs to accept the people's will and negotiate a peaceful transition of power, María Corina Machado, the opposition leader, writes. Armando Iannucci, who created the political satire "Veep," is worried — not about Harris, but about politics coming to resemble entertainment. Here's a column by Michelle Goldberg on Vance's father figures. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Joshua Bright for The New York Times 0.006 m.p.h.: While Olympians gather in Paris, an English village played host to its own competitors: dozens of garden snails. Sharks on drugs: Researchers found that 13 sharks off the coast of Rio de Janeiro had high levels of cocaine in their systems. (We apologize that yesterday's link to this story didn't work.) Modern Love: A letter from the past ("I'm reckless for you") made her regret things hadn't worked. Lives Lived: Sylvain Saudan, known as the "skier of the impossible," inspired a generation of extreme skiers with his audacious, life-threatening descents of the world's steepest and least accessible slopes. He died at 87. SPORTS Soccer: Mallory Swanson and Trinity Rodman helped the U.S. women's team beat Zambia 3-0 to open the Olympics. Spying scandal: Canada removed the head coach of its women's soccer team from the Olympics over accusations about using drones to watch rivals' practice sessions. M.L.B.: The San Diego Padres' right-hander Dylan Cease threw the second no-hitter in the franchise's history, beating the Washington Nationals 3-0. ARTS AND IDEAS A TikTok user. Meghan Pexton, via TikTok After years of trends encouraging people to buy things, some TikTok users are telling followers to embrace minimalism. They're calling it "underconsumption core," the latest move away from influencer culture. Instead of pristine fridge shelves, makeup bags with the latest products and fashion fads, users are sharing their simplified closets and minimal makeup collections. More on culture Mattel unveiled Blind Barbie, part of the toymaker's effort to be more inclusive. Stephen Colbert mocked Trump for recycling insults. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Kelsey Cherry Eat trifle, the dessert of the summer. Roast paprika chicken with potatoes. Pick the best drugstore makeup and skin care products. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were delight, delighted, highlighted and lighted. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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