Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. July 19, 2024 |
|
|
Fareed: Democrats Play Chicken With Biden |
Democrats' crisis of faith in President Joe Biden has become a game of chicken, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column.
As prominent Democrats pressure Biden to drop his reelection bid and allow a different candidate to face former President Donald Trump in November, they have no real means to force him from the race. All they can do "is pressure Biden behind the scenes, publicly embarrass him (as they're doing now), and threaten to leave him broke and alone on the trail," Fareed writes. "But these are just threats. They have power only if Biden believes them—believes that the party will stand firm against him even as Election Day gets closer and the risk of another Trump presidency rises."
On the bright side for Democrats, Fareed writes, the Biden crisis could lead to changes in how the party selects its presidential candidates. Since the 1970s, that power has rested mostly with registered partisans voting in state primaries, not the leaders and elected officials who used to enjoy more freedom—as "superdelegates" at nominating conventions—to throw meaningful weight behind candidates of their choosing.
"Changing candidates for November could be the beginning of a broader reset," Fareed writes. "Party leaders should reform the primary system to balance the power of the activist minority with the more mainstream majority—more superdelegates with the freedom to vote as they wish would be one important step. The message of the Democratic Party should be shaped by its governors, senators and mayors, not activists and academics. The next few weeks could begin a shift that would make the Democratic Party more attractive to more Americans for decades." |
|
|
Before Trump took the stage to deliver his keynote address at the Republican National Convention last night—hist first major appearance since being shot in the ear in a failed assassination attempt on Saturday—word spread among delegates that his tone would be very different, The Atlantic's McKay Coppins writes. Trump would call for unity and appear somber, rather than combative, and "delegates should not yell 'Fight! Fight!'—the words Trump had famously shouted as Secret Service agents surrounded him in Pennsylvania," Coppins reports.
For the first part of his speech, Trump was different. But it didn't last. "After delivering his message of hope and unity," The New Statesman's Katie Stallard writes, "he veered off into a rambling litany of his greatest grievances, from his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, to the 'partisan witch hunts' supposedly being waged against him, to 'crazy Nancy Pelosi,' and how the Democrats were 'weaponizing' the justice system."
The important takeaway, Stallard writes, was that Trump is vulnerable: "As many Americans backed slowly away from their television sets, freshly reminded of what, exactly, the first Trump presidency was really like, it was clear for the first time since Biden's calamitous debate in June, that this election is not a foregone conclusion. Trump is still Trump, and his running mate, [Ohio Sen.] JD Vance, is a polarising figure who has previously endorsed a nationwide abortion ban and cast serious doubt on whether he would have certified the results of the last election. Biden's time is over. But the Trump-Vance ticket is beatable, if only the Democrats can get their act together." A consistent Trump critic, The New Yorker's Susan B. Glasser draws the same conclusion, writing: "He is the same Trump, only four years older, angrier, and far, far more incoherent than anyone who has any business being President of the United States. If Biden can't beat him, then surely someone else can—and must." |
|
|
The Problem With Recognizing Palestine |
Recognize a Palestinian state? Sure, but who would govern it? As the post-Oct. 7 war in Gaza has dragged on, some international momentum has gathered for recognizing a Palestinian state: Ireland, Norway, and Spain did so in May. In a Foreign Affairs essay, however, Shira Efron and Michael J. Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum write that the Palestinian Authority is in no shape to govern such a state.
"Even as the need for real Palestinian sovereignty grows more and more acute," they write, "the Palestinian Authority (PA)—the putative ruler of a Palestinian state—is closer to collapsing than it has been since the height of the second intifada in 2002–3. The Israeli government's efforts over the past year to demolish the PA's finances have driven the body to the brink of outright insolvency; in May, the World Bank warned that the PA could soon be forced into an irreversible fiscal crisis. The PA is nowhere near being ready to govern, and Palestinians neither like nor trust it. These challenging conditions would set a new Palestinian state up to fail from nearly the moment it was founded. … Those countries recognizing Palestine or advocating for a two-state outcome must help ensure that the Palestinian state has a fighting chance to dignify its people with proper services and regain the public's trust. Otherwise, any steps toward realizing two states will be fanciful, built atop a crumbling foundation—and likely to help turn the West Bank into a third front in the current war." |
|
|
An Israel–Hamas ceasefire has been elusive, with the possibility making hopeful headlines and then receding. Today, however, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that final issues are being hashed out, and a deal could be close at hand. Last week, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius suggested important incentives were in place, writing: "After nine months of war, Israel wants to rest its troops and prepare for possible conflicts with Iran and its proxies. Hamas, in 'rough shape' in its underground lair, according to one U.S. official, is said to be low on ammunition and supplies. It's also facing growing pressure from battered Palestinian civilians, who are increasingly vocal in demanding a truce."
As for what will become of Gaza in the medium term, The Economist writes that the PA has no capacity or intention to govern the Strip—and that Gaza could turn into "Mogadishu on the Med," a dangerous ungoverned space. The magazine identifies two dismal scenarios for the territory, in the absence of a postwar plan and a will to make it work: "One is anarchy, with crooks, warlords and Hamas competing for turf, and the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] controlling the border and transport arteries while conducting periodic strikes. The other is a gradual re-occupation of parts of Gaza, with the IDF steadily being sucked in, hoping to buttress Israel's security. Israel's far right might then seek to re-establish settlements. In both cases there would be little hope for Gazans and none of the predictability that reconstruction requires." |
|
|
It's been a big year of elections, with votes held from South Africa to Taiwan. Experts have worried about the role AI might play, as the possibility of supercharged disinformation has loomed. At New Lines Magazine, Samriddhi Sakunia writes that in India's multi-week national election this spring, AI "paved the way for a new way of political campaigning in the country, where AI tools, such as voice cloning, conversational bots, personalized video and text messaging, QR codes to click selfies, hologram boxes and deepfake technology were employed by political parties to reach out to voters and take jabs at one another." Those "deepfakes" weren't necessarily meant to trick people—rather to mock opposing candidates by superimposing their faces on other people's bodies.
Other instances have been more troubling, and AI's political use cases appear to run the gamut from above-board teasing and innovative voter outreach to nefarious disinformation. Rest of World's rolling AI Elections Tracker notes both playful memes and an intent to deceive. An AI-generated combination cow–pig–snake is generated and tweeted to mock South Africa's coalition government. An Indian politician's speech is dubbed with fake audio making him appear to mock a fellow party member. An image of a Mexican presidential candidate is manipulated to show her (falsely) waving the national flag upside down.
At New Lines, Sakunia writes of another such instance: "During the recent elections, popular Bollywood actor Ranveer Singh issued a cautionary tweet after a digitally manipulated video of him criticizing [Indian Prime Minister Narendra] Modi surfaced on social media. In the original, he had praised the prime minister. Veteran actor Aamir Khan also found a morphed video of him doing the rounds where he was made to mock [Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party]. Deepfake videos of popular TV news anchors, falsely predicting wins, were also circulated on social media, as well as a simulated phone call involving a politician." |
|
|
| You are receiving this newsletter because you signed up for Fareed's Global Briefing.
To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or sign up to manage your CNN account | |
® © 2024 Cable News Network. A Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All Rights Reserved.
1050 Techwood Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30318 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario