The Morning: The force shaping Western politics

Plus, Hunter Biden, South African politics and BTS.

View in browser|nytimes.com June 12, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering immigration's role in European and U.S. politics — as well as Hunter Biden, South African politics and BTS. Migrants arriving in the Canary Islands. Carlos De Saa/EPA, via Shutterstock A dominant issue The recent elections for the European Parliament are the latest sign of the political potency of immigration. ​The elections' biggest winners were right-wing parties that promised to reduce the flow of migration. ​In today's newsletter, I'll explain why​ this subject is shaping Western politics and what may happen next. Rapid change The first thing to understand is how unusual the modern migration boom has been. In nearly every large Western country, the foreign-born share of the population has risen sharply since 1990: Source: Migration Policy Institute | Figures are rounded. | by The New York Times It's not clear whether immigration has ever previously risen so quickly in so many different countries. (​I​f anything, the chart here understates the trend because it ends in 2020, the last year with available data.) This migration boom has had big advantages. It has allowed millions of people to escape poverty and violence. It has diversified Western culture. It has brought workers into Europe and the U.S. who have held ​down the cost of labor-intensive businesses. But the boom has also had downsides. More labor competition can obviously hurt the workers who already live in a country. Governments have strained to provide social services to the arrivals. And the rise in immigration has been so rapid that many citizens feel uncomfortable with the associated societal changes. Historically, major immigration increases tend to spark political backlashes. The pattern has held in recent years. The shockingly successful Brexit campaign in 2016 emphasized immigration. So have Europe's fast-growing, far-right political parties. In the U.S., polls show that immigration threatens President Biden's re-election. For years, mainstream Western politicians, from the center-right to the center-left to the left, have dismissed voters' concerns about immigration. Some politicians describe it as a free lunch, with only economic benefits and no costs. They portray worries about immigration — worries shared by millions of people of different races, especially those with lower incomes — as inherently ignorant or xenophobic. Some politicians claim that governments are helpless to control their borders. Many voters responded by drifting to the only parties that promised to reduce immigration — parties on the extreme right. To be clear, these parties do traffic in racism, as well as conspiracy theories, violent rhetoric and authoritarianism. To many voters, though, the parties were also the one part of the political system willing to listen to public opinion about rising immigration. Andrew Sullivan, the political journalist (and an immigrant to the U.S.), points out that the disconnect has been particularly stark over the past few years. "As the public tried to express a desire to slow down the pace of demographic change, elites in London, Ottawa and Washington chose to massively accelerate it," Sullivan wrote on Substack. "It's as if they saw the rise in the popularity of the far right and said to themselves: Well now, how can we really get it to take off?" In the elections for the European Parliament this week, the National Rally, Marine Le Pen's far-right party, won more votes than any other in France. In Germany, the AfD, an ultranationalist party, finished second, ahead of the left-leaning party that governs the country. In Italy, the right-wing party that already runs the country finished first. A new tack? Migrants walk along the Rio Grande. Paul Ratje for The New York Times It wasn't so long ago that the political left and center took a different approach to immigration. They treated it as a complex issue that required moderation. President Barack Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders both fell into this category. They were part of a progressive tradition dating to labor and civil rights leaders who celebrated immigrants — but also supported tough border security, believing that unchecked immigration could destabilize society and increase inequality. There are some signs that the center-left and center-right are returning to this approach and becoming more respectful of public opinion: Biden, after loosening border rules early in his presidency and watching migration soar, has reversed himself. In Britain, the Labour Party has criticized the Conservative Party as lax on immigration. During a debate last week, Keir Starmer, the Labour candidate for prime minister, described Rishi Sunak, the Conservative incumbent, as "the most liberal prime minister we've ever had on immigration." In the E.U. elections, center-right parties finished first partly by adopting a more restrictive stance on immigration, my colleague Matina Stevis-Gridneff notes. (I recommend her succinct summary of the results.) The clearest example may be in Greece. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, an establishment conservative, has taken a hard line, refusing to allow some migrants to land there after years of surging migration. Even as other center-right parties struggled in the E.U. elections, Mitsotakis's party finished first in Greece. Japan and South Korea are moving toward a moderate position, albeit from the opposite direction. After decades of highly restrictive policies, they have begun to admit more immigrants, largely for economic reasons. The moves by Japan and South Korea are a recognition of immigration's unavoidable complexity. Very high levels of immigration can cause political and economic problems. So can very low levels. What's next? Britain and France will hold domestic elections in the next month. Those elections will be more telling than this week's, Matina says, because voters typically care more about their own government than about the E.U. ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Hunter Biden Hunter Biden with his wife, Melissa Cohen Biden, and Jill Biden, the first lady. Hannah Beier/Reuters A federal jury convicted Hunter Biden on three felony counts for lying about his drug use when he applied to buy a handgun in 2018. Biden faces up to 25 years in prison, though nonviolent first-time offenders typically receive much less. The judge will likely sentence him by the fall. The president, who said he would respect the trial's outcome and has ruled out pardoning his son, flew to Delaware, where the trial occurred. They embraced on the tarmac. Hunter Biden is set to stand trial in September in a separate tax case. The verdict complicates Republican claims of a rigged justice system. The late-night hosts discussed Biden's conviction. "Frankly, I'm shocked," said Jordan Klepper of "The Daily Show." "We're actually enforcing gun laws in America." 2024 Elections Sam Brown, a Trump-endorsed former Army captain whom party leaders consider a strong candidate, won Nevada's Republican Senate primary. He'll face Senator Jacky Rosen, a first-term Democrat. North Dakotans imposed an age limit on members of Congress from their state, barring candidates who would turn 81 before their term ends. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeals to some Latino voters in battleground states. This could hurt Biden more than Donald Trump. More on Politics A federal judge struck down parts of Florida's ban on gender transition care for minors, as well as its restrictions on adults seeking such care. The Biden administration moved to enact a rule that would remove medical debt from Americans' credit reports. This would make it easier to qualify for loans. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito were named to the Supreme Court within months of each other. They've come to embody very different strains of conservatism, Adam Liptak writes. Israel-Hamas War A U.N. commission accused both Israel and Palestinian groups of war crimes. Its report was the U.N.'s first detailed examination of Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. An Israeli strike killed a prominent Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah said. Hamas militants blew up a building in Rafah, Gaza, killing four Israeli soldiers, Israel said. In private messages, Yahya Sinwar, a Hamas leader, expressed disregard for civilian lives and signaled that Israel had more to lose from the war in Gaza than Hamas, The Wall Street Journal reports. Watch two Palestinians describe how they have been affected by raids and settler violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank since the Oct. 7 attacks. War in Ukraine Biden approved sending a second Patriot missile system to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. Ukraine used mostly Western-provided air defense systems to shoot down Russian missiles overnight. Ukraine plans to sell around 20 state-owned companies to help fund the war effort and bolster its economy. More International News John Steenhuisen, the leader of the Democratic Alliance party.  Joao Silva/The New York Times The leader of South Africa's second-largest party — a white man — must navigate issues of race to secure a place in the nation's next government. Pope Francis was accused of using a homophobic slur again in a meeting with priests. A boat carrying migrants sank off the coast of Yemen. At least 49 people died, and 140 others were missing. The U.S. banned imports from three Chinese companies, citing their links to forced labor in Xinjiang. Other Big Stories The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge has upended life in Baltimore. Traffic there has worsened and businesses have been affected. A jury in South Florida ordered Chiquita, the banana producer, to pay millions to the families of eight people killed by a Colombian paramilitary force, which Chiquita funded from 1997 to 2004. Opinions More than 60,000 evacuated residents of northern Israel also need a cease-fire in Gaza, Mairav Zonszein writes. Factory farms produce cheap meat and dairy. They also increase consumers' risk of contracting viruses like bird flu, David Quammen writes. Here are columns by Thomas Edsall on the Biden campaign and Bret Stephens on Biden's theory of victory. The Games Sale. Limited time offer. Come play with us. Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot (now in the app), reach Genius on Spelling Bee, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more. MORNING READS Morrie Markoff in 2023.  via Markoff family Lives Lived: The man believed to be the oldest in the U.S. has died at 110. Morrie Markoff was born six months before World War I began. He walked regularly, blogged and read The Los Angeles Times every morning until his final months. His brain will be donated for research on aging. Food trucks: Why are prices going up? We break down the costs of one brisket sandwich. Wordle tips: The game's editor has some expert tricks for you. The vaquita porpoise: Meet the most endangered marine mammal. High Valley Books: Inside the Greenpoint apartment — and bookstore — where stylish Brooklynites peruse a vast collection of vintage magazines. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is not at the team's mandatory minicamp, coach Robert Saleh said, as Rodgers is attending an "event that's important to him." Golf: Jon Rahm, a two-time major winner, will not play in this weekend's U.S. Open because of a toe infection. ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Nikki M. James, center, as Ida B. Wells in "Suffs." Sara Krulwich/The New York Times When "Suffs," a musical about the suffragists' crusade, premiered Off Broadway in 2022, reviews were mixed. But after two years, and extensive revisions, "Suffs" is on Broadway and nominated for six Tony Awards. Elisabeth Vincentelli writes about the many changes the show's creators made, including the addition of a catchy song, "G.A.B." More on culture Jin, after his discharge, in South Korea.  Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Jin, a member of the South Korean group BTS, became the first of his bandmates to complete mandatory military service. The last of the group is expected to complete his service in 2025. Watch Glen Powell and Adria Arjona fight and flirt in the new movie "Hit Man." The director Richard Linklater narrates a pivotal scene. Penny, a New York seafood counter and sibling of the restaurant Claud, opened in March. Its "shrimp cocktail is worth a visit all by itself," Pete Wells writes in his review. Disney will reopen a version of Splash Mountain at its Florida theme park. The ride now features characters from "The Princess and the Frog," instead of ones from the racist 1946 film "Song of the South." THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Pan-fry crumbled tortillas then mix with cheesy eggs, jalapeño, onion and garlic. Clean a smelly tent. Play music in your backyard from one of these speakers. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was legitimize. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018