The Morning: Abortion politics in 2024

Plus, Rafah, the Japanese prime minister and Jane Goodall.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story April 10, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering abortion's role in the 2024 election — as well as Rafah, the Japanese prime minister and Jane Goodall. In Amarillo, Texas. Meridith Kohut for The New York Times A new majority No American president has done as much to restrict abortion as Donald Trump. When he was running in 2016, he promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade, and his three nominees helped do precisely that in the 2022 Dobbs decision. Twenty-one states have since enacted tight restrictions. Yesterday, Arizona's highest court reinstated an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions. These laws have proven to be unpopular. When abortion access has appeared on the ballot since 2022, it has consistently won, even in red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. A Wall Street Journal poll last month found that abortion stood out from immigration, inflation and foreign wars as the only major issue on which most voters trusted President Biden more than Trump. All of this helps explains why Trump has tried to reduce his vulnerability on the issue — and why the Biden campaign is already running advertisements about abortion. "Donald Trump did this," reads the onscreen text at the end of an ad released this week. It focuses on a Texas woman who nearly died during a miscarriage after a hospital refused to treat her. Trump released his own video this week, meant to serve as his defining statement on the issue. He said that states should be free to set their own laws, which is the post-Dobbs status quo. In so doing, he tried to distance himself from his past support for a federal ban. This back-and-forth will be a theme of the 2024 campaign. Democrats will try to focus voters on abortion, while many Republicans will try to shift attention elsewhere. Today's newsletter offers four key points to help you make sense of the debate. The four points 1. The politics of abortion have changed. Before Dobbs, polls suggested that the issue didn't offer a big political advantage to either party. Most voters favored both significant access to abortion and significant restrictions, which put them to the left of Republican politicians and to the right of Democratic politicians. But Dobbs — and the reality of statewide bans, as opposed to the mere prospect of them — altered public opinion. Gallup's polls suggest that almost 10 percent of Americans on net switched from an anti-abortion position to a position favoring abortion access: Source: Gallup | By The New York Times 2. Democrats still have a challenge: salience. In the 2022 midterms, several high-profile Democratic candidates highlighted their Republican opponents' role in restricting abortion access. Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Beto O'Rourke in Texas were among them. So was Nan Whaley, the Democratic candidate for governor in Ohio. "We think it is the issue," Whaley said. It wasn't. These candidates all lost by substantial margins. Nationwide, not a single Republican governor or senator has lost a re-election bid since the Dobbs decision. In House elections, the decision may have played a decisive role in a small number of races. How could this be? In today's polarized atmosphere, most voters have already made up their minds. "There's no one issue in this day and age that can be a silver bullet," Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress, a left-leaning research firm, told me. If anything, Democrats may have a harder time focusing attention on abortion in a presidential election, when a larger portion of the electorate doesn't follow politics closely and prioritizes pocketbook issues. Some of these voters are Black and Hispanic working-class Americans who tend to care less about abortion policy than white voters, Rachel Cohen of Vox has written. 3. Trump's has his own problem: suburban swing voters. Democrats who tried to run on abortion in the 2022 midterms were trying to oust incumbent Republicans. Biden has an easier job this year: He's trying to reassemble a winning coalition. His 2020 coalition included many college graduates — and women — in metropolitan areas like Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and Phoenix, who allowed him to win swing states. Abortion access is popular with these voters, Deiseroth notes, especially when framed in terms of freedom and government overreach. A recent poll found that only about one in four independents blame Trump for recent abortion bans. Biden hopes to increase that share — and win back people who voted for him four years ago. 4. Trump hopes voters ignore the past. Trump's latest position on the issue is a middle ground for Republicans, in favor of Dobbs but implicitly against a new federal law restricting abortion. This stance is meant to suggest that voting for him won't lead to new laws forbidding abortion. That may be true (if he were to veto a Republican-passed federal ban, which he didn't promise in his video). Yet it also ignores some important facts. As president again, Trump could appoint dozens more federal judges who would interpret existing laws to reduce access. And Trump is effectively asking voters to ignore his first-term record. He remains arguably the most important opponent of abortion access in American history. For more Biden condemned the Arizona abortion decision as "cruel" and "extreme." "I'm pretty pro-life, but I think it should be the woman's choice": Read the mixed responses of Arizonans to the ruling. Trump's abortion stance is designed to look moderate, Times Opinion's Jamelle Bouie writes. Trump's contempt for weakness is toxic to the pro-life movement, which promises protections to the most vulnerable, Times Opinion's Ross Douthat writes. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Diplomacy At the White House.  Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times The Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, is on a state visit to Washington. The U.S. and Japan are expected to further integrate their militaries to counter China. David Cameron, the British foreign secretary and former prime minister, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Congress A bipartisan group of lawmakers plans to introduce a bill in Congress today that would limit troops' exposure to blasts from weapons, which can cause brain injuries. Congress passed legislation to get food to children from low-income homes over the summer break. Nearly half of Republican-led states are yet to join the program. More on Politics An appeals court judge rejected another attempt by Trump to delay his criminal case in Manhattan. The trial is set to start Monday. A judge ordered Trump's lawyers to redact the name of witnesses from a public filing in the classified documents case. The special counsel, Jack Smith, expressed concern for their safety. A Florida woman who stole the diary of Ashley Biden, the president's daughter, and helped sell it to a right-wing group was sentenced to a month in prison. The U.S. is now almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, a Pew report says. More voters have shifted toward the Republican Party. "A reality distortion bubble": America isn't as divided as many people think, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write for Axios. Israel-Hamas War Israeli border police officers in the West Bank.  Mohamad Torokman/Reuters Iran is smuggling weapons to Palestinians in the West Bank to stoke unrest, according to Iranian, Israeli and U.S. officials. Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israel would invade the crowded city of Rafah in southern Gaza. "No force in the world will stop us," he said in a speech to military recruits. At the top U.N. court, Germany rejected an accusation from Nicaragua that it had aided genocide by shipping arms to Israel. It said most of the equipment was nonlethal. The U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, told a Senate committee that the Pentagon had no evidence that Israel was carrying out a genocide in Gaza. Turkey said it would limit exports to Israel until there's a cease-fire in Gaza. Israel threatened to retaliate. Europe England's health service restricted medical gender transition for minors after a four-year review cast doubt on the treatment's benefits. Several other European countries have similar rules. Europe's top human rights court ruled that Switzerland violated its citizens' rights by not doing enough to stop climate change. Ireland is now led by its youngest ever prime minister: the 37-year-old Simon Harris. Ukraine's military has turned to drones from China after models sent by Silicon Valley start-ups failed in combat, The Wall Street Journal reports. Other Big Stories Jennifer and James Crumbley. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images The parents of a teenager who shot to death four fellow students at a Michigan high school each received 10 to 15 years in prison. The total solar eclipse delayed some Islamic communities' declaration of Eid al-Fitr, the celebration that marks the end of Ramadan. The E.P.A. will require utilities to remove "forever chemicals" from tap water. The chemicals identified are linked to cancer. Opinions Benjamin Netanyahu must step down and leave Israel's war in Gaza to someone who can win it, Bret Stephens writes. The U.S. economy has been far more successful at recovering from the Covid shock than from the 2008 financial crisis, Paul Krugman argues. Here are columns by Thomas Friedman on an exit strategy for Israel in Gaza and Thomas Edsall on Trump and the politics of intimidation. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS In Paris.  Cedrine Scheidig for The New York Times Passion projects: A lab in France is famous for its medical discoveries. Some of its staff are also excelling in another field: music. Cure-all? People claim that apple cider vinegar can help you lose weight and clear acne. The science is more nuanced. Guns, machetes and food poisoning: Read about what one man encountered when he ran the length of Africa. Eclipse: Internet traffic dropped by 40 percent or more in the path of totality. Space: Rising temperatures make it harder for researchers to collect meteorites in Antarctica. Lives Lived: Peter Higgs predicted the existence of a new particle, sparking a half-century search that culminated with a Nobel Prize. The particle — the Higgs boson — was named after him. Higgs died at 94. SPORTS College basketball: The men's national title game between UConn and Purdue averaged 14.8 million viewers, four million fewer than the women's game. Stepping down: The Stanford women's basketball coach Tara VanDerveer, who holds the record for most wins in college basketball, announced her retirement. M.L.B.: The Baltimore Orioles will promote Jackson Holliday, considered the best prospect in baseball, to the major leagues. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Jane Goodall Erinn Springer for The New York Times Dr. Jane's Dream: Next year, sometime around World Chimpanzee Day — July 14 — "Dr. Jane's Dream" will open its doors. The cultural complex, between Mount Kilimanjaro and Serengeti National Park in Tanzania, will celebrate the English primatologist Jane Goodall, who turned 90 last week. Read more about it, and about Goodall's career. More on culture Donna Dennis Lauren Lancaster for The New York Times Donna Dennis is a trailblazer of installation art who has long been overlooked. Some of her work is being exhibited at O'Flaherty's in Manhattan. Conan O'Brien returned to "The Tonight Show" for the first time in 14 years. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Johnny Miller for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Rebecca Jurkevich. Bake budget-friendly cheesy chicken and mushroom pasta. Exercise even when you're experiencing allergies. Buy a robot vacuum (they can work). Find a good raincoat for spring showers. Drink from an insulated tumbler. Download these apps before visiting a national park. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was hangable. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.— David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018