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miércoles, 2 de abril de 2025

The Morning: ‘Liberation Day’

Plus, election results from Wisconsin and Florida.
The Morning

April 2, 2025

Good morning. Today, we're covering President Trump's tariff plans. But first, we've got election results from Wisconsin and Florida.

Susan Crawford, in a white jacket and a blue blouse, raising her hand and grinning at a lectern in front of an American flag.
Susan Crawford  Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times

Elon Musk's millions weren't enough. Judge Susan Crawford, a liberal candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, overcame more than $25 million in spending by Musk to defeat her conservative opponent, Judge Brad Schimel, last night. Crawford's win maintains the liberal majority on the court, which faces key decisions on abortion and labor rights in the coming months.

Elsewhere, two Trump-backed Republicans won special congressional elections in Florida, shoring up the party's slim House majority. In both races, however, Democrats cut into Republican victory margins from November.

The elections suggest a once-demoralized Democratic base is animated again. Read takeaways.

A view from above shows containers stacked at a port.
Seagirt Marine Terminal in Baltimore. Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA, via Shutterstock

Today's tariffs

Today is, in President Trump's telling, "Liberation Day." For decades, many countries have imposed higher trade barriers on the United States than America does on them. In a Rose Garden event, Trump plans to strike back with tariffs that he claims will be "reciprocal" — ones that merely counter the penalties of other nations.

The logic is intuitive: Why shouldn't we impose tariffs on countries that have imposed tariffs on us? Europe's tax on U.S. cars, for instance, has been four times as high as America's tax on European vehicles. That doesn't seem fair.

Past presidents asked the same question — and came to a different conclusion than Trump did. They saw such tariffs as self-harm. That's because America would lose more in a global trade war than every major economy except Mexico, experts estimate.

A chart shows simulated changes in G.D.P. after three years of a 10 percent rise in tariffs between the United States and all other countries. The U.S. would lose more than every major economy except Mexico.
Source: O.E.C.D. Economic Outlook | By The New York Times

Today's newsletter explains how tariffs can hurt the U.S. economy — and why Trump believes they are worth it anyway.

Tariffs' harms

Consider how America has benefited from freer trade. Yes, it meant cheaper shirts, cars and phones. But it also allowed the country to play to its more profitable strengths.

The United States no longer needs factories with low-skill workers to make clothes. It can instead invest more in advanced technologies like computers and pharmaceuticals. Those investments lead to jobs that pay better than traditional manufacturing work, making Americans richer.

Open trade then lets high-tech businesses sell their new products to billions of people worldwide instead of just hundreds of millions of Americans. With more customers, these companies make more money, and they can pour their profits into further innovation, well-paying jobs and higher taxes to the U.S. government. In theory, this process leaves the country as a whole better off.

Not everyone wins. Some manufacturing jobs go to China, Mexico and elsewhere. Communities that rely on those jobs suffer unless they find a way to adjust to the new economy.

But using trade barriers to keep those old jobs is costly: First, it means higher prices. Second, a closed-off United States needs to pay for factories that make clothes, for instance, meaning it can invest less in those newer, better-paying jobs in advanced technology. The economy becomes less efficient and fails to reach its potential.

Trump's style also comes with costs. He has imposed and rescinded levies on a whim, making his moves unpredictable. Even now, no one outside the administration knows what Trump's reciprocal tariffs will look like. Markets loathe such unpredictability. Businesses want to know what's coming so they don't waste money investing in the wrong things. They can't do that if materials they depend on can become 25 percent more expensive with little warning.

Trump's view

Trump and his allies argue that they take a long view. Yes, they say, tariffs lead to chaos in the short term. But they will eventually bring back manufacturing jobs that people in some communities relied on. Yes, they say, consumers and businesses will pay higher prices. But those higher prices are worth the long-term benefits of self-sufficiency and more jobs. Yes, they say, the federal government will have to subsidize businesses that are vulnerable to a trade war (including farms). But tariffs will bring in more revenue than the subsidies cost.

And the tariffs may not last long, anyway, if other countries repeal their own trade barriers against America, after which the United States can unwind its reciprocal levies.

Most economists disagree with Trump's claims. To the extent that he's right, his goals will require something he has not demonstrated so far: commitment. Businesses will invest in domestic manufacturing only if they think they have no other option because the tariffs will stick. Other nations will withdraw their tariffs only if they think doing so is necessary to regain American customers.

Because Trump rescinded some of his previous tariffs after markets recoiled, businesses and other countries have good reason to believe that today's tariff rollout is a feint. They may try to call Trump's bluff. What happens next depends on whether he folds.

More on tariffs

THE LATEST NEWS

Immigration

A barefoot person in a white shirt and shorts has his hands behind his head in a barred cell. He is standing between two officers, and three others dressed like him are sitting on the floor.
A state-provided photo from El Salvador.  Secretaria De Prensa De La Presidencia, via Reuters

Government Overhaul

More on the Administration

Congress

Cory Booker, talking outside the Senate chamber after his speech.
Senator Cory Booker Eric Lee/The New York Times

Middle East

  • Israel's defense minister said that the military will expand its operation in Gaza and plans to seize large areas.
  • The U.N. accused Israel of killing 15 rescue workers as they tried to aid injured civilians last month. Israel said nine of the 15 were Palestinian militants.
  • The family of a Palestinian man said that Hamas militants tortured and killed him after he took part in anti-Hamas protests, CNN reports.
  • Benjamin Netanyahu withdrew his nominee to lead Israel's domestic intelligence agency, in part because the nominee had criticized Trump.

China

More International News

  • The Sky Villa apartment complex was a symbol of success in Mandalay — a city growing rapidly despite a civil war. Myanmar's earthquake, which now has a death toll over 2,700, turned the tower into a tomb.
  • The rebels who ousted Bashar al-Assad want to fold Syria's disparate militias into a single force. It's a struggle.
  • As Bangladesh tries to rebuild its democracy, support for Islamist extremism is bubbling to the surface.

Other Big Stories

Opinions

A GIF of several toddlers in a playroom. One is playing with a plush bunny, and another is sitting on a stool.
Dru Donovan for The New York Times

New technology could let parents select taller, smarter, happier embryos. Anna Louie Sussman explores what it would mean to engineer the next generation.

Here are columns by Bret Stephens on Gaza's anti-Hamas protests and Thomas Friedman on China's success.

A subscription to match the variety of your interests.

News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today.

MORNING READS

A man in a white shirt and beige shorts is upside down and holding a skateboard while flying high above a ramp at a competition.
Tom Schaar in the X Games in 2023. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Big air: Tony Hawk's style of gravity-defying skating, known as "vert," is making a comeback. He's campaigning for it to be in the 2028 Olympics.

Cool faucets: These are some of the best bathrooms to appear in T, The Times's style magazine.

Letter of Recommendation: The case for telling total strangers to shut up.

Most clicked yesterday: America has never been wealthier. But that's not true for everyone. See charts that show the inequality.

Lives Lived: Val Kilmer was a homegrown Hollywood actor who tasted leading-man stardom as Jim Morrison and Batman, but his protean gifts and elusive personality also made him a high-profile supporting player in movies like "Top Gun." He died at 65.

SPORTS

ESPN: Pat McAfee's show amplified a lurid rumor about a college freshman. The young woman at the center of it says the ordeal has destroyed her life.

N.F.L.: Team owners agreed to table a vote on the "tush push" play, which has caused strife over the last two years.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A GIF that shows a revolving view of the New York skyline from inside the View restaurant atop the New York Marriott Marquis.
Atop the New York Marriott Marquis. Yuvraj Khanna for The New York Times

The revolving restaurant, long regarded as a midcentury novelty, is making an unlikely comeback across America. You can find them now in New York, Atlanta and San Francisco. Danny Meyer, a restaurateur, believes the resurgence comes from a post-pandemic desire for experiences diners can't get at home.

More on culture

  • The Broadway revival of "Glengarry Glen Ross" boasts some good performances: It stars Kieran Culkin, Bill Burr and Bob Odenkirk. But the production is surprisingly limp, our critic writes.
  • "Yes, 'Liberation Day.' I'm reminded of the immortal words of Patrick Henry: 'Give me liberty or charge me an extra $10,000 for a Hyundai Elantra,'" Stephen Colbert joked.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A bowl containing lentils, greens, crumbled feta and a halved soft-boiled egg.
Mark Weinberg for The New York Times

Prep spinach and feta lentil bowls for an easy lunch throughout the week.

Use the best slow cooker.

Organize a small kitchen.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was echoing … a Monday's pangram of Sunday's pangram? (April Fools!)

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.

The Morning Newsletter Logo

Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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