The Morning: How the war in Ukraine could end

Plus, the UnitedHealthcare shooting, Maria Callas and grandpa shoes.

View in browser|nytimes.com December 13, 2024 Good morning. My colleague Julian Barnes analyzes the future of the war in Ukraine. We're also covering the UnitedHealthcare shooting, Maria Callas and grandpa shoes. —David Leonhardt In Myrnohrad, Ukraine. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times End game in Ukraine By Julian E. Barnes I cover intelligence and international security. No matter who won the presidential election, the war in Ukraine was likely to end next year. Both Ukraine and Russia are running out of troops and struggling to call up more young men for the front lines. That reality always meant that 2025 would be a year of negotiations. Donald Trump's victory will hasten those peace talks. During the campaign, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine even before his inauguration. Maybe that was a bit of exaggeration. But it's clear he wants negotiations to begin soon. That's bad news for Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing in the east. They've also reclaimed some of the Russian territory that Ukraine captured this past summer. Ukraine still has weapons, but its troops are spread thin. Intelligence agencies think it will run out of soldiers soon. Source: The Institute for the Study of War | Map is as of December 11. By The New York Times In today's newsletter, I will look at four questions that will shape the conflict next year — and how Trump's victory affects them. 1. Can Ukraine keep fighting? Ukrainian officials insist they are ready to keep fighting. But Republicans are loath to approve more aid for Ukraine, and Kyiv knows that without substantially more aid combat will end soon. Does Europe have the political will, and the defense industrial might, to replace the United States? At a NATO summit before the election, allies devised a plan to Trump-proof logistical support for Ukraine. Biden administration officials, however, doubt that Europe can step up. The economic might of the dollar allows Washington to run huge budget deficits to pay for defense. That's something Europe cannot do. Once American support disappears, it will be hard for Europe to muster the munitions or the funding at a level that can keep Ukraine in the fight. 2. What about the territory Russia seized? An artillery unit in the Donbas region. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times Without more weapons and soldiers, Ukraine may not recover the land it lost to Russia. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, knows this: He acknowledged recently that diplomacy, not the current "hot" war, will be how Ukraine recovers its territory. In a podcast interview during the presidential campaign, JD Vance proposed freezing the conflict and letting Russia keep what it took by force. Its president, Vladimir Putin, does not seem intent on capturing vastly more territory right now, but he has shown no sign that he is willing to withdraw from the parts of Ukraine he controls. Ukraine's one bargaining chip is Kursk, the Russian region that Kyiv's forces partially occupied in August. The Biden administration is trying to put Ukraine in the best bargaining position. The White House is pushing as many weapons to Ukraine as it can. It gave Ukraine permission to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russia in hopes it could hold Kursk. If it does, maybe Russia will hand back some Ukrainian territory in a trade. But Kyiv is unlikely to recover most of the land it has lost. 3. What guarantees can Ukraine get? For Ukraine, victory or defeat is not really about a particular parcel of terrain. It's about the agreements it might secure with Europe and America — for its long-term security and its economic integration with the West. The most ironclad guarantee, NATO membership, is off the table. Trump won't offer it. A Republican-led Senate with many Trump loyalists won't approve it. Vance has proposed neutrality for Ukraine, a key Putin demand. Trump has not detailed his position here. It's unlikely that he would back Ukraine militarily in the case of a future attack. But Trump may want to be seen as extracting a concession from Putin. He may look beyond Ukraine for such a win — something unrelated to the war. Perhaps he could prod Putin to allow Ukraine some economic integration with Europe, for instance. Putin wouldn't like that, but it would be a better alternative for him than Ukraine's entry into NATO. 4. Could Putin take Kyiv? Here is where the fears of Zelensky and Trump may align. Ukrainians have long said that if they make a deal to end the war now, Putin will simply rest his army, restock and come back for the rest of Ukraine later. Trump has repeatedly criticized President Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal. Trump likely doesn't want a similar legacy: a Russian takeover of Kyiv that lets Democrats say that he lost Ukraine. Republican defenders of Ukraine, a dying breed, argue that Trump never likes to look weak and won't settle for a deal that gives Putin a free hand. But it's hard to envision that Putin would make a promise to stay away that Kyiv could count on. (Past promises by Russia to respect Ukrainian sovereignty were worthless.) So protecting Kyiv will be the most difficult, and most important, part of the Trump negotiations. Related: In an interview with Time magazine, Trump declined to say whether he'd spoken to Putin since the election and criticized the Biden administration for letting Ukraine fire U.S.-made weapons into Russia. THE LATEST NEWS Trump's Time Interview At the New York Stock Exchange.  Doug Mills/The New York Times Trump had his perfect 1980s day. He rang the bell to open the stock exchange and was named Person of the Year by Time magazine. Trump, speaking with Time, pledged to start pardoning Jan. 6 rioters once he enters office. Trump sounded open to banning some childhood vaccines and reversing protections for transgender kids. During the campaign, Trump said he'd lower grocery prices. Yesterday, he told Time that "it's hard to bring things down once they're up," but he added that he was still hopeful. Read a transcript and a fact-check. Late night hosts discussed Time picking Trump. Trump Administration Republican senators have praised Kash Patel, Trump's pick to lead the F.B.I., echoing both men's attacks on the bureau. Massad Boulos, Trump's incoming Middle East adviser (and Tiffany Trump's father-in-law), cultivated a reputation as a billionaire businessman. In fact, he's a small-time truck salesman. Meta and Amazon are each donating $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund as tech company owners seek to mend relationships with Trump. Democrats want Trump's cabinet picks to hand over any communications with Boris Epshteyn, a Trump legal adviser accused of seeking money to promote potential nominees. Patrick Soon-Shiong, the billionaire owner of The Los Angeles Times, stopped the paper from publishing an editorial criticizing Trump's cabinet picks. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said he wants to stop water fluoridation in the U.S. This is what we know about the science. More on Politics The House passed a bill to create new federal judgeships over the next decade to address a case backlog. Most Democrats opposed the bill because it would give Trump more judicial vacancies to fill. After the Jan. 6 attack, conspiracy theorists claimed that the F.B.I. had encouraged rioters to storm the Capitol. A Justice Department watchdog concluded that was not true. Alexander Smirnov, a former F.B.I. informant, agreed to plead guilty to federal charges that he falsely claimed that Biden and his son Hunter took bribes from a Ukrainian oligarch. Minnesota and New Jersey sued Glock, accusing it of failing to change the design of its semiautomatic pistol to prevent people from converting the pistol into an illegal machine gun. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule limiting overdraft charges at large banks and credit unions. It's unclear whether Trump will keep the rule. UnitedHealthcare Shooting The suspect went quiet for months before the shooting and limited contact with friends and family. Read what we know about where he was. Part of the gun that the police believe was used to kill the C.E.O. of UnitedHealthcare was made by a 3D printer using a popular design found online. International In Kharkiv, Ukraine. Oksana Parafeniuk for The New York Times Women in Ukraine are making dangerous trips to date men on the front lines. As Syria's new leaders try to govern, world powers are sending representatives to shape the country's future. Other Big Stories Rescued common murres. Randall Benton/The Sacramento Bee, via Associated Press Ocean heat killed about half of these seabirds in Alaska. The population does not show signs of recovery. Older Americans are receiving new A.D.H.D. diagnoses. More children than ever are watching pornography. Researchers say doctors should start frank conversations between parents and children. The city of Louisville and the Justice Department reached an agreement to address misconduct by the local police after the fatal shooting of Breonna Taylor in 2020. The University of Michigan has fired an administrator who worked on diversity initiatives over accusations that she made antisemitic comments, a lawyer said. Sotheby's is selling a stone version of the Ten Commandments that it says is the world's oldest, dating to A.D. 300-800. Some experts question the stone's authenticity. Opinions Sarah Isgur, a former Justice Department staffer, is on Patel's enemies list. She writes that Biden should trust in the justice system and shouldn't pardon her. Here is a column by Thomas Friedman on how Trump can support Syria. Ends soon: Our best rate on unlimited access for Morning readers. Save now with our best offer on unlimited news and analysis as part of the complete Times experience: $1/week for your first year. MORNING READS Maria Callas in 1959. Associated Press Last days: Angelina Jolie plays the opera star Maria Callas in a new biopic. See Callas's life in photos. Watch the skies: The Geminids meteor shower, which forms from the debris of an asteroid, reaches its peak this weekend. Cheap(er) skiing: Find the lowest-priced lift tickets in the country. Fashion on ice: The figure skater Madison Chock has earned a reputation for competing in costumes as dazzling as her performances. Lives Lived: Victor Brombert was a scholar of comparative literature. He was also part of the Ritchie Boys, a secret U.S. intelligence unit that brought him to D-Day, the liberation of Paris and the Battle of the Bulge. He died at 101. SPORTS Chess: Dommaraju Gukesh, an 18-year-old Indian grandmaster, became the youngest undisputed world champion in history. N.F.L.: The Rams muscled their way to a 12-6 win over the 49ers, cementing their playoff chances while most likely ending San Francisco's postseason hopes. M.L.B.: In his first Mets news conference, Juan Soto said he wanted to "build a dynasty" in Queens. College football: North Carolina introduced Bill Belichick as head coach. Like The Morning and want more sports? Sign up for The Pulse, a free newsletter from The Athletic. ARTS AND IDEAS Melek Zertal Why not tell some strangers they look great today? Don't underestimate the simple power of an unexpected compliment, writes Sadie Stein, an editor on the Books desk. Read about her experiences. More on culture Ytilaer Jay Law People are loving grandpa shoes. Palestinian winemakers are using ancient techniques. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Add butter and egg to your instant ramen. Save on heat and hot water with these tips. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was atomization and minimization. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. The Times wants to hear from readers: How do you think the second Trump presidency will affect your life? Tell us here. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018