Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. August 11, 2024 |
| |
On GPS, at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET:
Can Vice President Kamala Harris win the November election on positive vibes?
Fareed points out that Harris is running a different kind of campaign—one focused not on policy papers but on warmth, personal energy, and a rediscovery of joy in politics. So far, Fareed says, it seems to be working.
Harris will need to fill in the details, Fareed argues, and immigration might be a good place to do it. After former President Donald Trump resisted bipartisan immigration reforms last year, Harris has room to propose scrapping the current asylum system and replacing it with an updated version better suited to present times. Still, Fareed says, Harris' vibecentric approach might pay off on Election Day.
After that: Fareed has an exclusive interview with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Election authorities declared authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro the winner of last month's election, but the US says Machado's alliance really prevailed. Now Machado is in hiding, as her country wonders what's next.
After the recent assassinations of high-level Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Israel is anticipating a response from its enemies—including Iran. Will that retaliation arrive, and if so what might it look like? How do Israelis feel about the conflict in which their country is embroiled? Fareed talks with New York Times Magazine staff writer Ronen Bergman.
Lebanon, too, is on edge as fears of an all-out war percolate. Will the Lebanese Islamist militia Hezbollah face a more intense and direct conflict with Israel? Fareed talks with author and Carnegie Middle East Center Director Maha Yahya about the devastation a war could bring to Lebanon and how such escalation can be avoided.
For years, analysts have pointed to a gender gap in US politics, as men skew to the right and women to the left. The Atlantic's Derek Thompson tells Fareed that's not the full story: The partisan gap is widening among younger voters, and of equal importance is a difference in how Republicans and Democrats (regardless of their gender) view gender's place in society.
Finally: Americans have become less able to communicate, particularly across political divides. Why? And how can we do better? Fareed talks with journalist Charles Duhigg, author of "Super Communicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection."
|
|
|
Still 'the Economy, Stupid'? |
When it comes to how the economy affects US elections, we may be in uncharted territory. November looms as a critical test.
As The Wall Street Journal's Jon Kamp, Rachel Wolfe, Ruth Simon, and Justin Baer detail, the US economy is suddenly on shakier ground than it had been. "Until recently, the U.S. appeared to be headed for a soft landing—with inflation coming down while employment has remained high and growth has been steady," they write. "Events of the past few weeks, however, have undermined confidence in that outlook." Unemployment has risen, some are calling for the Fed to cut interest rates, and the word "recession" is being bandied about.
Conventional wisdom on economics and elections is evolving. The axiom of Bill Clinton political adviser James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid," may no longer hold. President Joe Biden, infamously, has gotten little credit for an economic rebound on his watch. As for why, Fareed has argued that cultural identity and social issues like immigration and abortion have superseded economics in driving voter behavior. The Atlantic's Annie Lowrey has noted that partisanship can determine views of the economy itself, and news coverage of the economy has gotten more negative regardless of its actual performance. At Brookings, William A. Galston and Elaine Kamarck have pointed out that high prices affect Americans more personally than do GDP numbers, and they weigh differently on different ends of the wealth and income spectrums. Particular aspects of the economy, like inflation and unemployment, would seem to drive politics more than others.
Assessing how the US economy will influence the fall presidential vote, The Economist writes: "An outright recession would probably spell doom for Ms Harris. But even if the economy is only cooling, as is likely, it could harm her and help Donald Trump. … On the face of it, Ms Harris should be able to campaign on the Biden administration's economic record. Workers' median real earnings are 9.4% higher than when Americans went to the polls in 2016." But more recent events will likely be more important, and in that way "Democrats have something to worry about. At the start of the year, real incomes were rising at an annualised quarterly pace of about 1%. As the economy has cooled, this has fallen by roughly half. Consumer confidence was already unusually low, given strong growth and a jobs boom. With the slowdown, it is even lower today than in January and it may take another knock from stockmarket falls, or a surge in oil prices if war spreads in the Middle East." |
|
|
Kenya's Struggles and a Warning to the World |
"What in the world happened to Kenya?" asks former Washington Post Nairobi bureau chief Keith B. Richburg. Kenyan President William Ruto, who told Fareed last year about his rise from poverty to his country's highest office, has faced Gen Z protests initially prompted by a since-withdrawn tax bill.
"This started out as a stellar year for the country," Richburg writes for the Post. "In May … Ruto was feted with a star-studded state dinner at the White House, the first in 16 years for an African head of state." Now, Ruto faces calls for his exit and has dismissed almost his entire cabinet in response. The Financial Times' David Pilling wrote last month: "For a populist, Ruto's reading of the popular mood has been inept." At Chatham House, Fergus Kell observes "[p]opular anger at brazen public displays of wealth among Kenya's political elite" and national finances that have suffered under some large external loans with variable interest rates; Kell cites a $5 billion loan from China, the rate of which has jumped since it was inked. Chinese lending isn't the only problem, Kell has written for Chatham House before.
To the international community, Kenya may offer another lesson in the politics of development lending, Kell writes: "Stringent [International Monetary Fund] targets being passed on to citizens has revealed the limits of the IMF's narrow crisis management perspective and generated justified resentment, even if other lenders have been similarly inflexible." The Post's Richburg warns: "The world had better pay attention. Many of those young protesters have turned their anger on the World Bank, the IMF—and the United States. Well over half of Kenya's population—and 60 percent of the continent—is under 25 years old. These people are the future. Instead of feting African leaders at the White House, U.S. leaders need to mind America's long-term interest by listening to the hopes and grievances of the young people on the streets." |
|
|
Parisians were skeptical that the Olympics could be pulled off without a huge mess, Parisian Agnes Poirier writes for UnHerd. Doubts were sown by Seine pollution, QR codes necessary to access neighborhoods, and warnings about the risk of terrorism. As is common in summer anyway, some residents left town.
Despite all that, things have gone well, Poirier observes: "French happiness is an uncanny sight these days but there is no denying it: the Paris Games has brought France's joie de vivre back. It won't last, of course, but the memory will linger on. … Paris is, indeed, both deserted and full. The grumpy and worried have left in droves, leaving the sport fans who are simply happy to be here. Tourists and locals alike, those left roam the streets with one thing in common: they can't stop beaming and marvelling at everything. The Parisians who have remained out of curiosity have unexpectedly fallen back in love with their home. Optimism is a heady feeling. France should always remember what it feels like. It will come handy when we form our next government." |
|
|
| You are receiving this newsletter because you signed up for Fareed's Global Briefing.
To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or sign up to manage your CNN account | |
® © 2024 Cable News Network. A Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All Rights Reserved.
1050 Techwood Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30318 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario