May 29, 2024

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We're covering the Democrats' surprising early strength in Senate races — as well as Trump's trial, U.S.-made bombs in Rafah and photos of space.

Six faces in close-up, taken from videos.

Images from each of the six candidates' campaign ads. The New York Times

Six populists

Recent polls contain a surprising combination of results: Democrats appear to be leading in six tough Senate races even as President Biden trails Donald Trump in the same states.

What are these Democratic Senate candidates doing right? To answer that question, I studied their campaigns, looking at advertisements, social media posts and local news coverage. In today's newsletter, I'll highlight the single biggest theme that emerged: The six Democrats are basing their campaigns around a populism that harshly criticizes both big business and China.

(In a follow-up newsletter, I'll look at several other campaign themes.)

It's still early in the campaign, obviously, and some candidates who are leading now may lose in November. Still, most of the Democrats in these races aren't merely ahead in the polls; they also have a track record of winning tough races by appealing to voters who are skeptical of the Democratic Party. I think that their use of populism is crucial to that appeal.

'Corporate greed'

Video stills of a hand picking up a box of cereal and of Bob Casey in a supermarket next to text about

From a Bob Casey campaign ad. The New York Times

Successful campaigns, like movies and novels, tend to have heroes and bad guys. Republicans are comfortable with this idea. Their bad guys in recent years have included criminals, illegal immigrants and cultural elites. Democrats are sometimes squeamish about naming antagonists (other than Republicans) and prefer a higher-minded version of politics.

This year's swing-state Democrats are not squeamish. They portray both China and big business as making life hard on working families. Here's a flavor of what they are saying about corporations:

"I'll never stop fighting to crack down on corporate greed," Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio says in one ad.

Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania talks about corporate "greedflation" and "shrinkflation." One ad, set to "Pink Panther"-style music, shows fictional C.E.O.s sneaking around a supermarket at night to shrink product sizes.
In an ad for Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, workers talk about how "Wall Street greed" slashed their pensions and say that Baldwin "fought like hell" to restore them. Brown has run a similar ad, in which a truck driver talks about how Wall Street is trying to "screw Ohio workers."
An ad for Senator Jacky Rosen of Nevada boasts that she "took on the big drug companies — and won." Senator Jon Tester of Montana and Ruben Gallego, an Arizona congressman running for Senate, also criticize Big Pharma.

"The rich and the powerful — they don't need more advocates," Gallego says in an ad introducing himself to voters. "It's the people that are still trying to decide between groceries and utilities that needs a fighter for them."

'The greatest threat'

Images of people in a factory next to text about using U.S.-made steel.

From a Sherrod Brown campaign ad. The New York Times

The other main antagonist is China, which the candidates portray as using unfair trade tactics to undermine American jobs.

Tester's first television ad of the campaign described China as "the greatest threat facing our nation," Marissa Martinez of Politico noted. Baldwin, in one of her ads, says, "We can't let China steal Wisconsin jobs."

Casey and Brown have trumpeted their work on a law that requires the federal government to use American steel on infrastructure projects. "We were getting screwed," a steelworker in Casey's ad says.

In another Brown ad, workers at a washing-machine maker joke about his reputation for looking rumpled, disheveled and wrinkled — and say they don't care because he fights to protect their jobs against companies that break trade rules.
Brown's blue-collar reputation is central to his uncommon electoral success. He is the only Democrat to have won a Senate, governor or presidential race in Ohio over the past decade. He, Tester and Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia (who's retiring) are the only Democratic senators who represent states that Trump won in 2020.

What about Biden?

This kind of populism, in which politicians promise to fight for ordinary people against the powerful, was once core to the Democratic Party. Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry Truman were more populist than many people now remember. Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign was notably populist, too, as was Barack Obama's 2012 re-election campaign.

It's true that almost all elected Democrats today favor some populist policies, like raising taxes on the rich. But as the party has become dominated by college graduates and white-collar professionals, it has tended to emphasize other issues, like climate change and cultural liberalism, that fail to resonate with working-class Americans. Remember — most Americans don't have a bachelor's degree.

Biden has shown some signs of running a populist campaign this year. (He has begun to emphasize Trump's wealth, as my colleague Jess Bidgood has noted.) Still, Biden devotes more attention to Trump's anti-democratic behavior and to what Biden calls "the very soul of America."

Democracy is obviously a vital issue. So far, though, the polls suggest that pocketbook issues may be more resonant this year.

For more: My recent essay on "neopopulism" tries to explain why many Americans are so frustrated with the economy. And you can watch the campaign ads mentioned in today's newsletter here.

THE LATEST NEWS

Trump on Trial

Donald Trump at the defendant's table flanked by his lawyers.

Donald Trump Pool photo by Spencer Platt

The prosecution and the defense made their closing arguments in Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. The jury will begin deliberating today.
Trump's lawyer tried to undermine Michael Cohen, the prosecution's key witness, calling him the "M.V.P. of liars" and "the human embodiment of reasonable doubt." Read takeaways from the trial.
The prosecution walked jurors through their case over more than five hours, describing "a conspiracy and a coverup" and calling the hush money an "effort to hoodwink the American voter."
Prosecutors also sought to bolster Cohen's credibility. In a moment of stagecraft, one of them feigned a short phone call to show that Cohen could have spoken to both Trump and his bodyguard in quick succession, as Cohen testified.

2024 Election

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. criticized the removal of Confederate monuments as "destroying history," adding there were "heroes in the Confederacy who didn't have slaves."
Many of the Republicans angling to be Trump's running mate have visited him in court or joined him at rallies. Senator Marco Rubio is trying a quieter strategy.
An early deadline threatened to keep Biden off the ballot in Ohio. To get around it, Democrats will nominate him virtually before their official convention.

More Politics

Justice Samuel Alito said his wife flew an upside-down American flag in response to a neighbor's insult. But the name-calling happened weeks after the flag came down, and the neighbor says Alito's wife started the conflict.
The judge overseeing Trump's classified documents case denied prosecutors' request for a gag order. The request was a response to Trump's claim that Biden authorized F.B.I. agents to kill him during their raid on Mar-a-Lago.
In Senator Robert Menendez's bribery case, prosecutors showed private messages between Menendez and his future wife — what they say was the start of a conspiracy.

Israel-Hamas War

Israeli forces used U.S.-made bombs in the strike that killed dozens of Palestinians on Sunday when fires spread quickly through a camp for displaced people near Rafah.
Israel said it had sent more combat troops to southern Gaza.
Nikki Haley wrote "Finish Them!" on Israeli artillery shells during a Memorial Day visit to Israel, CNN reports.
A floating pier built by the U.S. to get more aid into Gaza broke apart in rough seas. The U.S. will try to repair it.
The Great Omari Mosque has been central to life in Gaza for centuries. It has been badly damaged during the war.

South Africa's Election

South Africans vote today. It's the country's most consequential election since the end of apartheid 30 years ago. Read what to know.
Polls predict that the governing party will receive less than half the national vote for the first time since 1994. Learn about its competitors.

More International News

The pope, dressed all in white, sits in a chair and reads from sheets of paper into a microphone.

Pope Francis Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters

Pope Francis apologized after the Italian media reported that he had used an anti-gay slur in a private meeting with bishops.
Haiti named a new prime minister, Garry Conille. He takes office in a deep crisis and is expected to serve until elections can be held.
There will be no French fries for athletes at the Olympics. France is trying to update its culinary reputation, and chefs will serve quinoa instead.

MORNING READS

A group of wet striped shrimp sitting on a metallic surface.

Wet striped shrimp. Chris M. Rogers/Gallery Stock

Shellfish: Americans love shrimp. Is it good for you?

Flaco the Owl: The American Museum of Natural History will keep Flaco's remains.

Ask Well: Influencers say you should delay your morning caffeine for a better buzz. We fact-checked their claims.

Brief romance: A trailblazer, a magic dress and waiting in the rain. Enjoy readers' Tiny Love Stories.

Lives Lived: Sue Johnson, a British-born clinical psychologist and best-selling author, developed a method of couples therapy based on emotional attachment, challenging what had been the dominant behavioral approach. She died at 76.

SPORTS

M.L.B.: Starting today, the league will officially recognize Negro Leagues statistics from around a century ago, which will change who holds some records.

N.B.A.: The Minnesota Timberwolves won Game 4 over the Dallas Mavericks.

N.H.L.: Sam Reinhart's overtime goal pushed the Florida Panthers past the New York Rangers, tying their Eastern Conference final series at 2-2.

"Inside the NBA": The TNT studio show, beloved by basketball fans for over two decades, may end after next season. Charles Barkley isn't going quietly.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A closer view of a cluster of orange, yellow and white galaxies, some of which appear as curved arcs.

Images by ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA

The European Space Agency recently released images and early science gathered from Euclid, a telescope that it launched into space last summer. The telescope can capture, in impressive detail, large swaths of sky. It will help astronomers make sense of two universal mysteries: dark matter and dark energy. See images captured by Euclid.

More on culture

The house from "Home Alone," in the Chicago suburb of Winnetka, Ill., is for sale. Asking price: $5.25 million.
A museum in Tasmania will let visitors hear songs from a one-of-a-kind Wu-Tang Clan album, which has never been played for the public.
See what people are wearing on the streets of New York this season.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

John Kernick for The New York Times

Combine beans and cheese for this easy five-ingredient dinner.

Read books about California.

Prepare for wildfires.

Fight clothing stains with these products.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was namecheck.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. We heard from some readers who thought that our use of the phrase "happy Memorial Day" in Monday's newsletter trivialized a day to honor Americans killed in wars. We understand that criticism, and we won't use the phrase again. We always welcome feedback and critique from readers.

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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