Get set for a fascinating Michigan primary on Tuesday, even though there's very little suspense about who will win.
US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are getting closer to the general election rematch that many Americans dread. But political number crunchers will still be watching the results in Michigan -- a vital swing state that may hold the key for both of their potential second terms.
Michigan's primary is the first real electoral test of how Biden's support for Israel's war in Gaza could hurt him at the ballot box with progressive and Arab-American voters. Prominent community leaders including Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian-American, are urging supporters not to vote for Biden but to put a cross in the "uncommitted" column on their ballot papers. If the primary protest gathers steam, expect fresh panic inside his party about Biden's prospects in November. Even Gretchen Whitmer, the state's popular Democratic governor, says she doesn't know how the drama will play out.
Even a few thousand defections from Biden in the general election could be significant in the ultra-competitive state. Look at 2016: Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan by only around 11,000 votes. Biden had a wider margin in 2024, but the state looks like a toss-up this year. And given whispers the President may be vulnerable in Western swing states, the road back to the White House may wend through the Midwest. Whoever wins Michigan could win it all.
Trump, the overwhelming front-runner for the Republican nomination, is expected to inflict another devastating defeat on his last opponent Nikki Haley. While he'll likely maintain his 100% record, his showing will be examined for signs of vulnerability. There's a growing story line that despite racking up primary victories more impressive than any other GOP nominee this century, Trump should be doing even better. In Saturday's South Carolina primary, 40% of those who voted didn't pick him. And in counties that most resemble the American suburbs that will ultimately decide the presidency, Haley won.
Trump's extremism and wild behavior spooked suburbanites and moderates in 2020 and remains a huge problem. But are Democrats deluding themselves about Trump's weakness? And is the diverse electoral tapestry that elected Biden four years ago unravelling?
We'll know a little more on Wednesday. But this is already clear: America has two flawed potential presidential nominees.
But one of them has to win.
