Before we get to New Hampshire on January 23, voters in Iowa are the first to make their voices heard in the 2024 presidential race on Monday.
With Trump polling as high as 50%, pundits are already debating how the race for second place could influence what happens next.
As CNN's political number cruncher Harry Enten writes, Iowa doesn't actually do a good job of predicting what happens in New Hampshire. But it does have a record of narrowing the pack and giving one candidate a momentum boost.
Here's what Harry thinks:
Let's start with what is obvious at this point: DeSantis is not doing well in New Hampshire. The latest CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire has DeSantis down to fifth place with a mere 5% of the voter support.
It's tough to imagine DeSantis having any real shot at the Republican presidential nomination if he came in third in Iowa and came in third or worse in New Hampshire. DeSantis' campaign has to know that.
History is littered with southern conservatives who bet it all on Iowa and dropped out afterward. The one that comes most immediately to my mind is Phil Gramm. He, like DeSantis, was a fundraising machine and was seen as Bob Dole's strongest rival for the 1996 GOP nomination. Gramm, though, finished poorly in Iowa and left the race.
If DeSantis finishes second in Iowa, he may stay in the race for a significant amount of time. The Florida governor could claim to be Trump's strongest rival.
Haley, on the other hand, isn't looking to merely keep her campaign afloat after Iowa. She's looking to use it as a launching pad to the Granite State. She's down just 7 points to Trump in our latest New Hampshire poll. The former South Carolina governor has risen from 20% in November to 32% now, while Trump is now at 39%.
While Haley has a minimal chance of winning in Iowa, that doesn't matter as much as you might think.
Think about the two largest wins for non-incumbents in the history of Iowa's Republican caucuses: Bob Dole in 1988 and George W. Bush in 2000. Neither of those two won New Hampshire. In fact, no Republican has ever won Iowa and New Hampshire. ...
Haley could disappoint in Iowa and not have any momentum heading into New Hampshire. If she can't win in New Hampshire, it might be fair to ask where she can win. She does best among moderate Republicans, who are a far larger share of the New Hampshire electorate than they are nationally or in Iowa.
The bottom line: There's a lot on the line in Iowa, even if you think Trump's very likely to cruise there.
