The Morning: What’s happening in Syria

Plus, the UnitedHealthcare C.E.O. shooting, South Korea and NFTs.

View in browser|nytimes.com December 6, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the war in Syria — as well as the UnitedHealthcare C.E.O. shooting, South Korea and NFTs. An anti-regime fighter stands as people flee areas on the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria. Rami Al Sayed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Rebels on the march The Syrian Civil War is a long-running tragedy. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including more than 200,000 civilians, according to human rights experts. Millions more Syrians have fled their homes. The flood of refugees into Europe has been large enough to help destabilize politics in France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere. Until recently, Bashar al-Assad — Syria's authoritarian president, who's responsible for much of the carnage — seemed to be in a dominant position. His forces controlled about two-thirds of the country's territory, including all the largest cities. The war seemed to have reached a stalemate. Over the past two weeks, however, anti-Assad rebels have made surprising gains (as these Times maps show). The rebels captured most of Aleppo, Syria's biggest city, and have since taken another major city, Hama. They are heading toward Damascus, the capital. Sources: Institute for the Study of War; Janes | Areas of control are approximate. Advances since late Nov. shown as of Dec. 4. | By Samuel Granados The war has entered an uncertain new phase. In today's newsletter, I'll explain why the situation has changed — and how the war affects the rest of the world. Who's on Assad's side? The Assad family, which has run Syria since a 1970 coup, is Alawite, a minority sect that's an offshoot of Shiite Islam. The government is secular, but its closest ally is Iran, the most powerful Shiite country. Syria is a core part of Iran's "axis of resistance" — a network of countries and groups (including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis) that hopes to destroy Israel and reduce American influence in the Middle East. Geography helps explain Syria's importance to the axis: Iran funnels weapons to Hezbollah across Syria, for use in Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah have repaid the favor by sending thousands of militants to fight on Assad's side during the civil war. By Lazaro Gamio Russia is another Syrian ally. Syria was on the Soviets' side during the Cold War, and Vladimir Putin today sees the country as a way to maintain his influence in the Middle East. After the civil war began 13 years ago, Russia sent planes, troops and advisers to fight for Assad. These ties highlight Syria's role as a secondary player, but still an important one, in the emerging global alliance that includes China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. (I explained the importance of that alliance in a recent Morning.) Not surprisingly, the U.S. and the European Union view Assad as an enemy. Partly because of his brutality toward his own people, Western nations spent years pushing for Assad's ouster, including through sanctions that have hobbled Syria's economy. Geopolitics also seems to be why the rebels launched their offensive now. Iran is distracted by its conflict with Israel. Hezbollah has been badly weakened by Israel. Russia is focused on Ukraine. All of which has left Syria's allies less able to send troops and equipment to turn back a rebel advance. "This was a really opportune moment for the rebels to try to strike at Assad," said Vivian Yee, The Times's Cairo bureau chief, who has been covering the war. Who are the rebels? Assad's closeness to Iran and Russia might make it seem as if the U.S. should be allied with the Syrian rebels. But that's not quite the case. The situation is more complex. The main rebel group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or H.T.S., which controls much of Syria's northeast. H.T.S. is a Sunni Muslim group descended from Al Qaeda, and the U.S. government classifies it as a terrorist group. But it has since renounced Al Qaeda. "Its leader, known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has restyled himself as a less extreme, more nationalist leader who places more emphasis on toppling the Assad government and replacing it," said Ben Hubbard, The Times's Istanbul bureau chief. "What exactly that government would look like is anyone's guess, but the group remains Islamist in outlook." A second, smaller rebel faction is a confederation of less ideological groups that operate mostly near Syria's border with Turkey and that the Turkish government supports. Many observers believe that Turkey at least tacitly approved the recent rebel push that led to the capture of Aleppo. Turkey has several reasons to back the rebels. It and Syria have long been regional rivals. Turkey also sees rebel gains as potential leverage that would push Assad to negotiate the return of many Syrian war refugees now in Turkey, Vivian notes. Finally, a strong rebel movement could weaken a Kurdish-led militia that operates near the border and that Turkey considers a threat. The big picture As you can see, the geopolitical dynamics are complicated. Turkey supports the rebels partly to weaken a Kurdish movement that is only a marginal player in Syria. And the U.S. opposes Assad but considers his main domestic enemy to be a terrorist organization. It's not even clear what the U.S. and its allies want to happen in Syria. A complete victory for either side would likely empower a hostile government in a vital region. A continuing war would have the upside of weakening both sides but would have major costs. It could have terrible humanitarian effects, and wars often destabilize the world in unpredictable ways. "My overwhelming impression," Ben said, "is that the U.S. just wants the war to go away." For more detail, I recommend this article about the rebels, by Vivian, Alissa Rubin and Raja Abdulrahim THE LATEST NEWS Manhattan Shooting A photo from investigators.  New York City Police Department The police have not yet identified the suspect in the shooting of the C.E.O. of UnitedHealthcare, but they released two images that they say show his face. They are tracking the suspect's movements over the past 10 days. He arrived in New York on a bus coming from the south of the city and checked into an Upper West Side hostel, an official said. They are also following a lead on a gun purchase in Connecticut. See a map of where the shooter was. The police found words written on bullet casings at the scene, including "delay" and "deny," possible references to rejected insurance claims. In response to the shooting, Americans have released their deep frustration online about an industry that often denies coverage and reimbursement for medical claims. Trump Administration Elon Musk spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars in the final months of the presidential election to help Donald Trump win. The House blocked the release of a report about former Representative Matt Gaetz's alleged sexual misconduct and drug use. David Perdue, a businessman and former senator from Georgia, is Trump's pick as ambassador to China. In Pete Hegseth's comments, writings and even tattoos, he has shown an obsession with the Crusades, the medieval holy wars between Christians and Muslims. Democratic Party Barack Obama delivered a speech for the first time since the election. He urged his party to engage with alternate views more actively. President Biden's staff is debating whether he should issue blanket pardons for some of Trump's perceived enemies to protect them from the "retribution" he has threatened after he takes office, officials said. Democrats had a financial advantage in the election, but the Trump campaign had a shrewd advertising strategy: It focused on streaming services, whose users were disproportionately young and undecided. South Korea In South Korea, opposition to the president who declared martial law is growing. He's facing impeachment. The political turmoil has added to South Korea's economic struggles. More International News Emmanuel Macron on TV. Teresa Suarez/EPA, via Shutterstock Emmanuel Macron vowed to remain France's leader. His chosen prime minister was forced to resign after a no-confidence vote. Britain's leader, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is trying to fight populism from a centrist position. Two Americans and a Canadian who went missing climbing New Zealand's tallest mountain are presumed dead. The Americans were certified guides in skiing, alpine climbing and rock climbing. California A 7.0 magnitude earthquake rattled California north of San Francisco and prompted a brief tsunami warning. The two kindergartners who had been shot at their school are in critical but stable condition. Other Big Stories The University of Michigan will no longer require diversity statements as part of faculty hiring, promotion and tenure decisions. New York City approved a plan to create 80,000 new homes. McKinsey, the consulting company, was accused of bribing foreign government officials. The company agreed to pay $122 million to settle the case. Toxic fertilizer sellers are asking Congress to protect them from lawsuits. A stowaway on a plane hopped between bathrooms to try to fly undetected from New York to Paris. Read her story. Opinions The New York governor's new congestion pricing plan is a fair compromise between commuters and city government, Alex Matthiessen writes. The phrase "you guys" doesn't imply only men. It has become a universal plural "you" in a language that lacks one, John McWhorter writes. Here are columns by M. Gessen on the Supreme Court's trans case and Michelle Goldberg on Kash Patel's "enemies list." The Times Sale starts now: Our best rate for readers of The Morning. Save now with our best offer on unlimited news and analysis as part of the complete Times experience: $1/week for your first year. MORNING READS Erik Carter Long live NFTs? The craze brought the crypto crowd to art auctions. Long after the bubble burst, some still believe. Microdosing Ozempic: People are taking tiny amounts of weight loss medications to try to drop pounds while avoiding side effects. Does it work? Aesthetic: Can you copyright a vibe? One influencer is suing another for allegedly copying her style of posts. "Rail Force One": See inside the trains that take world leaders into Ukraine. Lives Lived: Shalom Nagar was a reluctant 23-year-old Israeli prison guard when he was chosen to hang Adolf Eichmann — the fugitive Nazi war criminal convicted of genocide. Nagar has died in his late 80s. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers, 34-31, for their 11th straight win. College football: A surprising candidate emerged for North Carolina's coaching vacancy: six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick. M.L.B.: The Athletics, a notoriously frugal franchise, signed the starting pitcher Luis Severino to a three-year, $67 million deal, the largest in team history. ARTS AND IDEAS Notre-Dame Felipe Romero Beltran for The New York Times When the Cathedral of Notre-Dame went up in flames in 2019, it was as if Paris had lost part of its identity. Emmanuel Macron, France's president, promised to reopen it in five years, a seemingly impossible task for a job of such scale and importance. But it happened: Notre-Dame is set to open to the public on Sunday. "It's different when you work on a building that has a soul," the head of the restoration task force told our architecture critic. "Beauty makes everything easier." More on culture Miranda July Dana Scruggs for The New York Times See the 63 most stylish people of 2024. Pantone's color of the year is "mocha mousse." Last year was particularly strong for the video game industry, Zachary Small writes. Try some of the best games. Jimmy Kimmel joked that Hegseth, if he does not become defense secretary, may sell videos on Cameo. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Sear salmon in garlic-anchovy butter, which enriches and deepens its flavors. Drink from an Owala. (We love it.) Use the best drip coffee maker. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was groundout. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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