Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. July 21, 2024 |
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On GPS, at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET:
As prominent Democrats pressure President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race, Fareed says the party's crisis has become a game of chicken. Lacking any real means to force Biden off the ticket, all Democratic leaders can do is threaten to abandon him—even as Election Day draws nearer and the likelihood of another Donald Trump presidency grows.
And yet, there may be opportunity in this crisis. Since the 1970s, presidential candidates have been selected by partisan primary voters, but Fareed suggests the Biden saga could offer an opening to reform the way Democrats pick their nominees. Giving more power to elected officials and party leaders—who used to have a greater say as "superdelegates" to Democratic conventions—could lead the party to nominate presidential candidates with more mainstream appeal, Fareed argues.
After that: America's allies brace for Trump's return. The former president leads in polls and has picked as his running-mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), a champion of "America first" foreign policy. Fareed talks with former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt about how the US election looks from Europe.
Who is JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential candidate? Fareed talks with David Frum, a staff writer for The Atlantic and former speechwriter for George W. Bush, who published Vance's pseudonymous op-eds at Frum's former website FrumForum. The site operated from 2009–2012 and envisioned a reformed, center-right GOP. Since then, Frum says, Vance has shapeshifted completely, turning from pragmatic moderate to Trumpian populist.
This month, Iran elected reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian over his conservative opponent. Meanwhile, experts continue to worry that war could break out between Iran and Israel. Fareed talks with acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani about Tehran's stance on developing nuclear weapons, regional concerns about a larger Middle East conflict beyond Gaza, and US allegations that Iran plotted to assassinate Trump. (Iran has denied it, and the alleged plot was unconnected to the real assassination attempt on Trump last weekend.)
How has Taiwan dealt with digital interference from mainland China? The island held a presidential election early this year, and as always, the danger of online disinformation and cyber threats loomed large. Fareed talks with Audrey Tang, Taiwan's former minister of digital affairs.
Finally: How can cities beat the heat? As the earth gets hotter, summers are turning deadlier, and local officials are grappling with the problem. Fareed talks with Jane Gilbert, chief heat officer of Miami-Dade County, Fla.
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The New 'Imperial Presidency' |
Whoever gets the job, the next US president might be the most powerful in history. With two major court rulings this summer, the authority of the presidency has expanded radically, as detailed in a Foreign Affairs essay by George Washington University political-science professor Sarah Binder, American University international-relations professor James Goldgeier and Columbia political-science professor Elizabeth N. Saunders.
First, the Supreme Court ruled that presidents enjoy broad immunity from criminal prosecution for actions they take in the line of official duty. Then, taking a cue from Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas' concurring opinion in that case, Judge Aileen Cannon threw out the prosecution of Trump for his alleged mishandling of classified documents—which Trump has denied—deeming the appointment of Special Counsel Jack Smith to have been unconstitutional.
Marveling at the implications, Binder, Goldgeier and Saunders write that a president now can, for instance, order the Justice Department to pursue political opponents, or veto a bill in exchange for a bribe, and face no legal repercussions. "Allies and adversaries alike should now assume that U.S. presidents will never be held officially accountable for their actions, even through political processes such as congressional hearings or impeachments," they write. "The majority [Supreme Court] opinion has simply made the costs of enforcing these constraints too high—and the costs for presidents who circumvent them too insignificant. … [O]ther countries trust or fear democracies precisely because the rule of law keeps policy within certain bounds, regardless of who holds executive power. Relying on the forbearance of one individual leader is no way to run a credible, sound foreign policy—or a democratic government."
Supporters of the Supreme Court ruling say it prevents frivolous, politically motivated prosecutions of presidents and ex-presidents: CNN legal commentator Timothy C. Parlatore, who represented Trump in the investigative phase of the immunity case, made that argument at CNN Opinion. The right-leaning Wall Street Journal editorial board agreed, arguing the ruling protected the presidency.
Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe, by contrast, shares the Foreign Affairs authors' abhorrence, telling Der Spiegel's Bernhard Zand: "In truth, it was only the prospect of eventually being criminally prosecuted that limited American presidents. When Richard Nixon resigned from the presidency in 1974, the impeachment process had not yet been rendered as ineffectual as it is today. Nevertheless, his successor Gerald Ford pardoned him because he feared that Nixon could be criminally prosecuted for the way he abused the Justice Department. But the Supreme Court ruling now says that a president enjoys absolute immunity, even if he directs the attorney general to take action against a political opponent, which is an obvious abuse of power." |
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Venezuela's elections are not considered free or fair, but some wonder if dictatorial President Nicolás Maduro could lose—and indeed be forced from office—in the country's upcoming vote scheduled for July 28.
At Der Spiegel, Marian Blasberg chronicles great energy behind opposition figure María Corina Machado, who was barred from running. In her stead, Venezuela's opposition has united behind the placeholder candidacy of 74-year-old former ambassador Edmundo González, who to his surprise was asked by opposition politicos to sign a form and appear on the ballot. Blasberg visits with González as he talks to a brightly colored wild macaw while feeding it seeds on his balcony. "Until recently, says González, he would sit here every morning drinking coffee, listening to the radio and watching the parrots. In the afternoons, he would play dominos or take his grandson to the barber. But this peaceful life of a retiree came to an abrupt end when a few opposition politicians approached him in April with a request he could hardly refuse."
González "is nothing more than a stand-in for Machado's mission," Blasberg writes, but supporters don't seem to care. Due to economic mismanagement and US oil sanctions, Venezuela's economy has collapsed. Its regime is brutal. Millions have fled, generating a regional refugee crisis. (Venezuela's population peaked at 30 million in 2016, per the World Bank; as of last year, there were an estimated 7.7 million refugees and emigrants around the world, nearly 3 million in neighboring Colombia alone. )
"Everything [Machado and González] are doing is subject to uncertainty, tinged by the knowledge that Maduro might realize at some point that the polls are correct and that the risk he will lose power is too great," Blasberg writes. "Nobody knows what might happen then. … Behind the scenes, one hears, exit strategies are under discussion that might make it easier for Maduro to let go. But in public, Maduro is letting nothing show. He, too, is campaigning." At the Council on Foreign Relations, Shannon K. O'Neil foresees three possible outcomes: relatively free and fair elections, which Maduro would probably lose; Maduro using levers of power to discourage opposition voters and win; or the Maduro government barring González's candidacy before the vote is held. |
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