Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. May 15, 2024 | |
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How dangerous are tensions across the Taiwan Strait? In 2021, The Economist called it "the most dangerous place on earth," as mainland China's territorial claims on Taiwan, Taiwan's resistance to those claims, and an ambiguous US alliance with the latter could collide to produce a superpower war.
At the Brookings Institution, Ryan Hass argues things will likely stay calm (if precarious) for a few years, at least. The center-left, pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party retained Taiwan's presidency in this year's election—to Beijing's chagrin—but Hass writes that political pressures (and a legislative minority) will keep incoming DPP president William Lai from making any drastic moves.
In a Foreign Affairs essay, Dmitri Alperovitch casts Taiwan as a modern-day West Berlin. "The United States' competition with China is a sprawling, multifaceted struggle that bears remarkable similarities to the Cold War," Alperovitch writes: "it is a race for diplomatic and economic influence, a conventional and nuclear arms race, a space race, a scramble to establish military bases in Africa and East Asia, an ideological struggle between authoritarianism and democracy, a tech and economic war, and an espionage war. Taiwan, like West Berlin, is small, but it is the only place in the world where that competition risks sparking a hot conflict and, indeed, the only place where both countries are actively preparing for war."
Practically, Alperovitch offers a lesson: Taiwan is more important to Beijing than West Berlin was to Moscow, but Washington's resolute defense of West Berlin maintained a status quo that eventually saw the USSR back off and seek détente. Today, Alperovitch writes, the US should similarly highlight the preferability of an uneasy status quo to a calamitous war—and bide its time while China's aging population weakens its economy and thus its hostility. |
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The Other Case Against AI |
The fears of artificial-intelligence doomsayers are well known. For instance: Last year, Fareed heard from AI "godfather" Geoffrey Hinton, who left his job at Google to discuss AI's dangers. Hinton warned that AI may soon surpass human intelligence—and could turn against us—and that there's no easy way to keep the technology safe. Killer drone swarms and human job losses loom as less-existential dangers.
That's one set of reasons to be skeptical of AI. But there's another, nearly opposite reason: the notion that AI simply isn't capable of doing anything so meaningful as its hype suggests.
That may be a minority view, as hope, fear, and fascination still pervade the discussion of AI. But two recent columns advance the case for being unimpressed. Crypto and blockchain skeptic Molly White wrote last month in her newsletter, which goes by the name of "[citation needed]": "[T]here is a yawning gap between 'AI tools can be handy for some things' and the kinds of stories AI companies are telling (and the media is uncritically reprinting). … When I boil it down, I find my feelings about AI are actually pretty similar to my feelings about blockchains: they do a poor job of much of what people try to do with them, they can't do the things their creators claim they one day might, and many of the things they are well suited to do may not be altogether that beneficial." In writing and coding, White argues, AI can help, but it can't do the full job. It can handle some rote, repetitive coding tasks, but it can't replace an experience software developer.
Picking up on White's observations, New York Times opinion writer Julia Angwin offers: "Companies that can get by with Roomba-quality work will, of course, still try to replace workers. But in workplaces where quality matters—and where workforces such as screenwriters and nurses are unionized—A.I. may not make significant inroads. … We can't abandon work on improving A.I. … But we should reckon with the possibility that we are investing in an ideal future that may not materialize." |
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Seeking an 'Endgame' in Gaza |
More than seven months since Hamas's Oct. 7 massacres instigated the devastating Israel–Hamas war in Gaza, there is no consensus on who will govern Gaza after the war ends. As US President Joe Biden feuds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, threatening to suspend some weapons shipments if Israel proceeds to invade the Gazan border city of Rafah, on Sunday's GPS Fareed heard from former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni that crafting a workable "endgame" for Gaza is the "master key" to solving various disputes over the war. |
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People are living much longer these days. At the Financial Times, columnist Martin Wolf reviews a book on what that means for our lives and for the economy: Andrew Scott's "The Longevity Imperative," which argues we should reconsider the experience of old age and the potential productivity of old people, rather than merely fretting over the economic burden on the relatively smaller share of working-age adults.
Wolf describes the possibilities Scott envisions: "A big question is how people will age. Will they enjoy a vigorous old age and then drop dead suddenly or will we live on 'sans eyes, sans teeth, sans everything' for many helpless, hopeless years? Scott imagines four scenarios. The first is Jonathan Swift's Struldbruggs, immortal but ageing, eternally. The second is Oscar Wilde's Dorian Gray, who lives young and then suddenly dies old. The third is Peter Pan, who is forever young. The fourth is Marvel Comics' Wolverine, who is able to regenerate." The first scenario is undesirable, Wolf writes, but that "seems to be where we are"; Scott argues we should focus on improving diet and exercise and preventing serious ailments—and that people will need to work longer into their lives. |
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