When former Taiwan Presidential spokesperson Kolas Yotaka watched Tucker Carlson's recent interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin, one thought came to her mind.
"Putin and Xi Jinping are similar," she told me. "Because both of them believe they represent the old imperial power in their countries. And they are the chosen leaders who can defend their countries from foreign powers. They think they are the chosen ones. And they want to stay in power forever. But this is scary. And this is nonsense."
Nonsense or not, Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine has now entered its third year, costing tens of thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars – and counting.
Putin justified his military aggression toward Ukraine, in part by invoking historical grievances and nationalism. His rationale echoes the narrative of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who consistently frames Beijing's claim over Taiwan through a lens of historical entitlement and national rejuvenation.
"Anyone who cares about democracy, anyone who cares about human rights, they have to pay attention," Kolas warned – referring to the parallels between Putin's justifications for his invasion of Ukraine and Xi's rhetoric around Taiwan – and the threat both autocratic leaders' ambitions pose to those democracies.
Earlier this month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gave a similar warning, pointing to Putin's 2022 visit to Beijing, days before he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"(Putin) signed an agreement with President Xi where they promised each other a partnership without any limits," Stoltenberg told the Munich Security Conference.
"And what we see is that China and Russia are (becoming) closer and closer. So of course, if President Putin wins in Ukraine, it's not only challenging for the Ukrainians … it sends a message not only to Putin, but also to Xi that when they use military force, they get what they want.
"What happens in Ukraine today can happen in Taiwan tomorrow."
China's ruling Communist Party says the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan is part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary
China has pushed back against comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine, pointing out that only a handful of countries recognize the island's sovereignty.
But concerns about potential parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine – or the notes that Xi may be taking watching the world's reaction to Russia's war – have been augmented by China and Xi's own response to it.
Beijing has refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, despite purporting to uphold countries' territorial integrity under international norms. It has also claimed impartiality in the conflict, but has continued to strengthen its economic, strategic and diplomatic ties with Russia – becoming a key economic lifeline for the sanctions-hit economy.
Keep reading about the two leaders' obsession with national identity.
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