As America bustled through key political moments last week, with voters casting Super Tuesday ballots and President Joe Biden laying out his national priorities in the State of the Union address, China was busy conducting the largest annual showing of its own political process.
In Beijing, where thousands of delegates from around the country convened for a largely ceremonial meeting to rubber stamp a yearly agenda set by the Communist Party-controlled government, the focus was on domestic concerns – from economic goals to hailing the leadership of Xi Jinping.
But looming over that gathering was also the near certainty that former President Donald Trump would run against Biden in November elections – and that either winner would continue to drive a tough China policy.
Senior Chinese leaders didn't publicly mention the American election as the Beijing event got underway. But a key strategy promoted there – to become a high-tech powerhouse – was widely seen as part of an urgent bid to safeguard the country in the face of Biden administration technology curbs and a fractious US-China relationship ahead.
Top diplomat Wang Yi flashed a clearer sign of the anxiety underlying that strategy during a press briefing on the sidelines of the gathering. There, he reached for some of his most dramatic language to date on US trade and tech controls targeting China, saying they had hit "bewildering levels of unfathomable absurdity."
Behind closed doors, however, observers of elite Chinese politics say, the discussion about the upcoming elections themselves is likely much more direct – especially when it comes to the impact of the return of Trump, who is widely seen as a far more unpredictable force than Biden.
Trump reshaped relations between the world's two largest economies with massive trade tariffs while in office four years ago. He's now threatening, if elected, to raise those to a level that experts say could trigger a de facto decoupling – a shock that would hit at a delicate time for the Chinese economy.
But a return of Trump to office also has the potential to upturn the current geopolitical balance, which has seen America and its allies increasingly united against Russia and the perceived threat of a rising China.
A US retreat from those partners under Trump's "America First" stance could take pressure off China and present a significant opportunity for Beijing's own global ambitions.
Officials who are part of the ruling Communist Party's foreign affairs office have likely been tasked with "scenario-planning and evidence-informed analyses" of the implications of a Trump or Biden win, which would each pose different risks for Beijing, according to Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong's Centre on Contemporary China and the World.
Experts say Chinese policymakers will be considering how each administration would impact China's core goal of taking control of the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan, its drive to expand its global power and influence, and its efforts to stabilize and strengthen its already battered economy.
"The priorities are to ensure China remains secure from foreign security and military interference, that it is financially and economically secure," Wong added.
Keep reading about the Trump effect on China.
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